If Johnson fails, who is the next Conservative Leader?

[Suburbia]

If there is no Brexit on 31 October 2019, what happens?

Early winter snap election in January 2020?

[CumbrianLefty]

A bit later than that, I would have thought.

[brucejoel99]

With the exception of losing a general election, I don't see BoJo going quietly into the night. I think it'll take a lot more than it comparatively took for Cameron & May before him to resign.

Regardless, I'd wager that the most likely Tory leader after BoJo is Raab, because he's in a really prime position to get the same support that BoJo got this time around.

As for when a general election happens after a non-Brexit, who knows? I could see BoJo just refusing to wanna call one in hopes of being able to stay on as long as possible.

[Kingpoleon]

Gove crushes Hunt and Javid. We’ve seen the numerical/parliamentary incapabilities of a lot of other potential leaders.

[Coldstream]

Gove or Raab would be the early favourites, Javid for obvious reasons isn’t likely to be a favourite of the membership. Patel is similarly disadvantaged - but she’s also a lot more right wing so I could see her having a shot. She also completely irrationally enrages corbynites cos she hangs out with Israelis so would be good if the Tories were against a Corbyn government.

 I wouldn’t rule our Gavin Williamson either, he demonstrated his sway within the PCP with the way he swung them to Johnson - and in my experience he’s quite popular with the grassroots.

[cp]

A lot would depend on the manner of Johnson's departure. If he stepped down without an election a la Cameron/May, presuming doing so was due to being shamed for breaking the 31 October Brexit date promise, then only someone who could credibly claim to be *even more* Brexity would do. Steve Baker, Ress-Mogg, Raab, Gove (maybe), etc.

If he stepped down due to losing an election then the field of candidates will likely be much different. Depending on the scale of the loss some of the most eligible contenders might not be MPs anymore (Rees-Mogg's seat was Lib Dem [ed. actually it was Labour. My bad] until 2010), especially if the Brexit Party eats into Tory margins in unpredictable ways. Meanwhile, such a scenario might also mean the complete collapse of Brexit as a guiding policy, so there might be latitude for the next leader to come from a more moderate wing of the party.

FWIW I think the most likely scenario is an election this autumn just before or just after the 31st of October with Brexit not accomplished, resulting in a parliament no longer led by the Tories.

[Coldstream]

A lot would depend on the manner of Johnson's departure. If he stepped down without an election a la Cameron/May, presuming doing so was due to being shamed for breaking the 31 October Brexit date promise, then only someone who could credibly claim to be *even more* Brexity would do. Steve Baker, Ress-Mogg, Raab, Gove (maybe), etc.

If he stepped down due to losing an election then the field of candidates will likely be much different. Depending on the scale of the loss some of the most eligible contenders might not be MPs anymore (Rees-Mogg's seat was Lib Dem until 2010), especially if the Brexit Party eats into Tory margins in unpredictable ways. Meanwhile, such a scenario might also mean the complete collapse of Brexit as a guiding policy, so there might be latitude for the next leader to come from a more moderate wing of the party.

FWIW I think the most likely scenario is an election this autumn just before or just after the 31st of October with Brexit not accomplished, resulting in a parliament no longer led by the Tories.

Rees-Mogg’s seat was Labour. Source, I lived there.

[cp]

A lot would depend on the manner of Johnson's departure. If he stepped down without an election a la Cameron/May, presuming doing so was due to being shamed for breaking the 31 October Brexit date promise, then only someone who could credibly claim to be *even more* Brexity would do. Steve Baker, Ress-Mogg, Raab, Gove (maybe), etc.

If he stepped down due to losing an election then the field of candidates will likely be much different. Depending on the scale of the loss some of the most eligible contenders might not be MPs anymore (Rees-Mogg's seat was Lib Dem until 2010), especially if the Brexit Party eats into Tory margins in unpredictable ways. Meanwhile, such a scenario might also mean the complete collapse of Brexit as a guiding policy, so there might be latitude for the next leader to come from a more moderate wing of the party.

FWIW I think the most likely scenario is an election this autumn just before or just after the 31st of October with Brexit not accomplished, resulting in a parliament no longer led by the Tories.

Rees-Mogg’s seat was Labour. Source, I lived there.

Oops. My mistake.

[Coldstream]

A lot would depend on the manner of Johnson's departure. If he stepped down without an election a la Cameron/May, presuming doing so was due to being shamed for breaking the 31 October Brexit date promise, then only someone who could credibly claim to be *even more* Brexity would do. Steve Baker, Ress-Mogg, Raab, Gove (maybe), etc.

If he stepped down due to losing an election then the field of candidates will likely be much different. Depending on the scale of the loss some of the most eligible contenders might not be MPs anymore (Rees-Mogg's seat was Lib Dem until 2010), especially if the Brexit Party eats into Tory margins in unpredictable ways. Meanwhile, such a scenario might also mean the complete collapse of Brexit as a guiding policy, so there might be latitude for the next leader to come from a more moderate wing of the party.

FWIW I think the most likely scenario is an election this autumn just before or just after the 31st of October with Brexit not accomplished, resulting in a parliament no longer led by the Tories.

Rees-Mogg’s seat was Labour. Source, I lived there.

Oops. My mistake.

It’s not an unreasonable assumption given the MP and name of the seat. But it’s basically suburbs/satellite towns of Bristol and some villages. Some of which are ex-mining and have big Labour presences.

[Middle-aged Europe]

If?