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February 29, 2020, 06:06:30 am
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  If Texas flips it may set of a beginning of a totally new realignment of the map
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Author Topic: If Texas flips it may set of a beginning of a totally new realignment of the map  (Read 3392 times)
Skill and Chance
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« Reply #25 on: August 01, 2019, 09:33:43 pm »

Alternatively, there might be a bipartisan cause to end the electoral college.

Hmmm... something like this with the Republican winning the PV is actually very plausible sometime during 2024-32. 



There are enough Safe R states to put the NPVIC compact into effect for the next election if they decided they wanted to.  SCOTUS could strike it down of course, but if congress passes a law explicitly authorizing it, I think that eliminates the constitutional issue. 
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longtimelurker
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« Reply #26 on: August 10, 2019, 03:08:58 pm »

Why you guys assume ethnic groups can't change voting habits is bizarre. Literally every single group in America besides the jews has oscillated from one party to the other.

Democrats far left plunge on fringe social issues is not going to sit well with hispanics eventually.

My mother's family were Republicans until 1932.  They were from NY and hated FDR.  Until they hated the Great Depression even more.
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YE
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« Reply #27 on: August 10, 2019, 03:26:40 pm »

Why you guys assume ethnic groups can't change voting habits is bizarre. Literally every single group in America besides the jews has oscillated from one party to the other.

Democrats far left plunge on fringe social issues is not going to sit well with hispanics eventually.

The immigration policy of Trump as of right now is not going to sit well Hispanics for the next decade or so.

I could see them shifting right down the line similar to how third wave immigrants assimilated as the New Deal era ended and the Reagan Coalition was born but we're still a bit away from that happening.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #28 on: August 10, 2019, 06:34:53 pm »

The nation is rapidly polarizing.  I honesty could see calls for secession/balkanization become relevant. Especially if trends continue and the EC goes blue, but Senate goes red and stays that way (more states are red than blue, republicans being more likely to ticket split is the only thing giving the dems a chance in the senate, and ticket splitting is declining).  This results in a deadlocked nation where neither side can get anything done.  Call me crazy, but that sounds like a recipe for trouble.  Peaceful separation may be the best option.  Neither side wants to be dominated by the other.
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #29 on: August 10, 2019, 06:50:30 pm »


Peaceful separation may be the best option.  Neither side wants to be dominated by the other.

How do we peacefully separate when our divide is a sea of ruby red rural areas with large pockets of blue metros scattered about it? What would a city like Chicago or Atlanta do?

The 1850ís had a much clearer diving line.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #30 on: August 10, 2019, 11:09:12 pm »


Peaceful separation may be the best option.  Neither side wants to be dominated by the other.

How do we peacefully separate when our divide is a sea of ruby red rural areas with large pockets of blue metros scattered about it? What would a city like Chicago or Atlanta do?

The 1850ís had a much clearer diving line.
Chicago is very distinct from its surroundings and would likely be a city state, would be more populated than many European countries.  Atlanta is less distinct and blends in well with the black belt and deep south.   Politically, the deep and upland south are trending differently.
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« Reply #31 on: August 10, 2019, 11:32:29 pm »

The nation is rapidly polarizing.  I honesty could see calls for secession/balkanization become relevant. Especially if trends continue and the EC goes blue, but Senate goes red and stays that way (more states are red than blue, republicans being more likely to ticket split is the only thing giving the dems a chance in the senate, and ticket splitting is declining).  This results in a deadlocked nation where neither side can get anything done.  Call me crazy, but that sounds like a recipe for trouble.  Peaceful separation may be the best option.  Neither side wants to be dominated by the other.
You realize that that would be practically impossible? With a few exceptions (rural Texas panhandle or inner city Chicago) no place is 100% to one side. Splitting America into a red and blue nation would do absolutely nothing good. And if you wanna do a "partition" with people moving and all that...no, just look at how those things have worked out in the past.

Plus you have to realize that 1) areas shift, often pretty quickly, like look at Orange County or West Virginia. Second of all, even if you managed to put every Trump voter in one area and every Clinton voter in another, kids don't always grow up having the same beliefs as their parents. Wouldn't it suck to live in a nation where literally nobody agrees with you?

Point being, this is a dumb idea in so many ways.
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« Reply #32 on: August 10, 2019, 11:33:49 pm »

Democrats far left plunge on fringe social issues is not going to sit well with hispanics eventually.
As long as the Republicans stay doing what they're doing, any black or Hispanic outreach is gonna flop hard.
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Anarcho-Statism
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« Reply #33 on: August 10, 2019, 11:49:15 pm »

The nation is rapidly polarizing.  I honesty could see calls for secession/balkanization become relevant. Especially if trends continue and the EC goes blue, but Senate goes red and stays that way (more states are red than blue, republicans being more likely to ticket split is the only thing giving the dems a chance in the senate, and ticket splitting is declining).  This results in a deadlocked nation where neither side can get anything done.  Call me crazy, but that sounds like a recipe for trouble.  Peaceful separation may be the best option.  Neither side wants to be dominated by the other.

There's no radical difference between the Republicans and Democrats and their vision for the country's future.
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MarkD
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« Reply #34 on: August 11, 2019, 01:08:48 am »

But if Texas flips in 2020, which I think it will, that might not be a portend of future election results. It could very well just be that Trump has been a bad president who doesn't deserve a second term. By 2024 if a normal Republican gets nominated then maybe Texas will revert to form.

And on a different note, ...
Alternatively, there might be a bipartisan cause to end the electoral college.

Let's f**king hope!

Me too.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #35 on: August 11, 2019, 01:30:43 am »

But if Texas flips in 2020, which I think it will, that might not be a portend of future election results. It could very well just be that Trump has been a bad president who doesn't deserve a second term. By 2024 if a normal Republican gets nominated then maybe Texas will revert to form.

And on a different note, ...
Alternatively, there might be a bipartisan cause to end the electoral college.

Let's f**king hope!

Me too.

If it did flip in 2020 it would at best become like Florida is now, very unlikely it would go back to the way it was 10 years ago. However that depends on the the GOP at the state level being reasonable.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #36 on: August 11, 2019, 02:58:36 am »

The nation is rapidly polarizing.  I honesty could see calls for secession/balkanization become relevant. Especially if trends continue and the EC goes blue, but Senate goes red and stays that way (more states are red than blue, republicans being more likely to ticket split is the only thing giving the dems a chance in the senate, and ticket splitting is declining).  This results in a deadlocked nation where neither side can get anything done.  Call me crazy, but that sounds like a recipe for trouble.  Peaceful separation may be the best option.  Neither side wants to be dominated by the other.
You realize that that would be practically impossible? With a few exceptions (rural Texas panhandle or inner city Chicago) no place is 100% to one side. Splitting America into a red and blue nation would do absolutely nothing good. And if you wanna do a "partition" with people moving and all that...no, just look at how those things have worked out in the past.

Plus you have to realize that 1) areas shift, often pretty quickly, like look at Orange County or West Virginia. Second of all, even if you managed to put every Trump voter in one area and every Clinton voter in another, kids don't always grow up having the same beliefs as their parents. Wouldn't it suck to live in a nation where literally nobody agrees with you?

Point being, this is a dumb idea in so many ways.
I'm not saying one red nation one blue nation.  US political, demographic, and cultural geography are more complicated than that.  This isn't just about red vs blue.  Many underlying factors create that dichotomy in the first place.  Likely each area would develop its own system.  Maybe some multi party systems.  Maybe some one party systems.  I could still see a lot of economic cooperation between sections, but on issues like immigration, maybe the California Republic wants tons and the Great Lakes Federation wants very little.  Or Dixie wants to ban abortion but New England wants liberal laws on it.  Many possibilities.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #37 on: August 11, 2019, 06:35:17 am »

Republicans will have a narrow path to victory if TX goes blue in the future. They could win MN, NH, ME and lose AZ and they'd be fine. Yes, I did current 2024 projections and if Republicans win 2016+MN, NH, ME at large and lose TX and AZ they'd be at 271. Pulling an upset victory in VA or a solidly Democratic state in the Northeast would open up more options too.

I don't even think TX will flip blue for a few more cycles anyway and I think the GOP can still win TX in a best case scenario long after the current era.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #38 on: August 11, 2019, 11:07:55 am »

Republicans will have a narrow path to victory if TX goes blue in the future. They could win MN, NH, ME and lose AZ and they'd be fine. Yes, I did current 2024 projections and if Republicans win 2016+MN, NH, ME at large and lose TX and AZ they'd be at 271. Pulling an upset victory in VA or a solidly Democratic state in the Northeast would open up more options too.

I don't even think TX will flip blue for a few more cycles anyway and I think the GOP can still win TX in a best case scenario long after the current era.


If they lose TX they will lose GA as well
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marty
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« Reply #39 on: August 11, 2019, 11:12:58 am »

posters here are overrating how loyal suburbs will be to dems in a post-trump political world.

suburbs are still generally conservative compared to cities and liberal areas.

Look at how bad the dems did in suburbs in the midterms of 2010 and 2014. And Obama didn't do very well in many suburbs either.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #40 on: August 11, 2019, 02:24:46 pm »

Republicans will have a narrow path to victory if TX goes blue in the future. They could win MN, NH, ME and lose AZ and they'd be fine. Yes, I did current 2024 projections and if Republicans win 2016+MN, NH, ME at large and lose TX and AZ they'd be at 271. Pulling an upset victory in VA or a solidly Democratic state in the Northeast would open up more options too.

I don't even think TX will flip blue for a few more cycles anyway and I think the GOP can still win TX in a best case scenario long after the current era.


If they lose TX they will lose GA as well
Depends how receptive the Trump judiciary is to GA GOP's last ditch effort to keep the state.  If they ok it, we can do more purges, change early voting protocols, and reduce polling stations in heavily D precincts.  Depends if R's have the balls to do what it takes to win.
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #41 on: August 11, 2019, 03:05:33 pm »

we can do more purges, change early voting protocols, and reduce polling stations in heavily D precincts.  Depends if R's have the balls to do what it takes to win.

You want the US to split up AND you support voter suppression?

Sounds like you have a hefty amount of 1860ís memorabilia in your closet.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #42 on: August 11, 2019, 03:20:05 pm »

we can do more purges, change early voting protocols, and reduce polling stations in heavily D precincts.  Depends if R's have the balls to do what it takes to win.

You want the US to split up AND you support voter suppression?

Sounds like you have a hefty amount of 1860ís memorabilia in your closet.
lol, I'm actually not a southerner.  Nor do I own a confederate flag.  I just don't like 1 party dem rule.  Dems cheat demographically, by importing their demographics to outnumber us.  Need to counter it somehow.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #43 on: August 11, 2019, 03:22:40 pm »

I see some blue avvies here fully admit their party wants voter suppression. The GOP is so afraid of losing their white majority, that they're afraid of us brown folks voting, hilarious.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #44 on: August 11, 2019, 03:47:06 pm »

Republicans will have a narrow path to victory if TX goes blue in the future. They could win MN, NH, ME and lose AZ and they'd be fine. Yes, I did current 2024 projections and if Republicans win 2016+MN, NH, ME at large and lose TX and AZ they'd be at 271. Pulling an upset victory in VA or a solidly Democratic state in the Northeast would open up more options too.

I don't even think TX will flip blue for a few more cycles anyway and I think the GOP can still win TX in a best case scenario long after the current era.


If they lose TX they will lose GA as well

That's not a guarantee.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #45 on: August 11, 2019, 03:48:42 pm »

I think it would just force Republicans to go all in on the industrial/post-industrial Midwest and retirees (hold Florida, NC, maybe not get wiped out in AZ), on the assumption that the South is giving out.  There would end up being little or no difference in family income between the party coalitions.  Democrats are gradually able to contest the Plains and Republicans the Northeast (except for MA as Boston seems to be following the Southern/Western metro trajectory).  Small cities become the most important electoral battleground.







Yeah. As I said, An upset for Republicans in a Democratic state in the Northeast will open up more options.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #46 on: August 11, 2019, 05:13:44 pm »

I see some blue avvies here fully admit their party wants voter suppression. The GOP is so afraid of losing their white majority, that they're afraid of us brown folks voting, hilarious.
Yeah, because I don't like 1 party left wing rule.  How evil.  The real cheating is seeking to change the makeup of the entire country because the population switches off on which party it elects, and Dems don't like that!
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #47 on: August 11, 2019, 05:18:14 pm »

I see some blue avvies here fully admit their party wants voter suppression. The GOP is so afraid of losing their white majority, that they're afraid of us brown folks voting, hilarious.
Yeah, because I don't like 1 party left wing rule.  How evil.  The real cheating is seeking to change the makeup of the entire country because the population switches off on which party it elects, and Dems don't like that!

Are you naturally this dumb? This isn't and wasn't meant to be a white country, it's not my fault y'alls people don't have kids and we do lmao. But yeah, let's stop brown people from voting because y'all can't appeal to us, have fun losing idiot.
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« Reply #48 on: August 11, 2019, 05:24:50 pm »

2020 may indeed be the yr TX flips with a 2008 atmosphere
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Does the title even matter?
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« Reply #49 on: August 11, 2019, 05:54:30 pm »

Don't expect it.

http://www.beyondchron.org/latino-voting-driven-labor-not-anti-immigrant-attacks/
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