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  If Texas flips it may set of a beginning of a totally new realignment of the map
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #50 on: August 11, 2019, 05:59:12 pm »


Texas flipping is primarily dependent on Latinos comprising a larger share of the vote along with white Texans shifting less Republican as boomers pass away and as a segment of suburban white voters shift to Dems.

That article is irrelevant.
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« Reply #51 on: August 11, 2019, 06:03:13 pm »

Texas flipping is primarily dependent on Latinos comprising a larger share of the vote along with white Texans shifting less Republican as boomers pass away and as a segment of suburban white voters shift to Dems.

That article is irrelevant.

Not to mention whites from other, more Democratic states moving to the state.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #52 on: August 11, 2019, 10:10:54 pm »

I see some blue avvies here fully admit their party wants voter suppression. The GOP is so afraid of losing their white majority, that they're afraid of us brown folks voting, hilarious.
Yeah, because I don't like 1 party left wing rule.  How evil.  The real cheating is seeking to change the makeup of the entire country because the population switches off on which party it elects, and Dems don't like that!

Are you naturally this dumb? This isn't and wasn't meant to be a white country, it's not my fault y'alls people don't have kids and we do lmao. But yeah, let's stop brown people from voting because y'all can't appeal to us, have fun losing idiot.
It's not just race.  There are white liberal areas and minority conservative areas
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lfromnj
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« Reply #53 on: August 12, 2019, 11:44:12 am »

Fyi most the swing from 2012 to 2018 is white suburbans and not minority. In fact minority swing probably hurt.
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marty
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« Reply #54 on: August 12, 2019, 10:26:17 pm »

Fyi most the swing from 2012 to 2018 is white suburbans and not minority. In fact minority swing probably hurt.

yep.


TEXAS TRENDED R IN 2012

If a dem in 2020 or beyond does something that pisses off the suburbs, texas will swing back to the GOP.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #55 on: August 13, 2019, 12:42:53 am »

Fyi most the swing from 2012 to 2018 is white suburbans and not minority. In fact minority swing probably hurt.

yep.


TEXAS TRENDED R IN 2012

If a dem in 2020 or beyond does something that pisses off the suburbs, texas will swing back to the GOP.

Yep. Agree.
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sg0508
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« Reply #56 on: August 18, 2019, 07:24:22 pm »

2020 will likely be the last time the GOP can win TX without really trying. If Houston and Austin continue to grow as they are, eventually those big cities will catch-up to the GOP suburbs and smaller towns.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #57 on: August 20, 2019, 12:11:39 pm »

Fyi most the swing from 2012 to 2018 is white suburbans and not minority. In fact minority swing probably hurt.

yep.


TEXAS TRENDED R IN 2012

If a dem in 2020 or beyond does something that pisses off the suburbs, texas will swing back to the GOP.

Well yeah. Backlashes to the party in power are common. Dems made gains in Appalachia in 2018 but no one serious besides Politician thinks that means Democrats will continue making gains there. Doesnít mean theyíll return to the old GOP margins in those place or anywhere near it.
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marty
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« Reply #58 on: August 21, 2019, 11:48:08 pm »

Fyi most the swing from 2012 to 2018 is white suburbans and not minority. In fact minority swing probably hurt.

yep.


TEXAS TRENDED R IN 2012

If a dem in 2020 or beyond does something that pisses off the suburbs, texas will swing back to the GOP.

Well yeah. Backlashes to the party in power are common. Dems made gains in Appalachia in 2018 but no one serious besides Politician thinks that means Democrats will continue making gains there. Doesnít mean theyíll return to the old GOP margins in those place or anywhere near it.

Here's the difference.

appalachia has swung R because they dislike the democratic party's increasingly liberal platform.

the sunbelt suburbs have swung D in the age of trump because they dislike trump.

That is a big difference imo.

What changed between 2014 and 2016 that made the sunbelt suburbs more liberal?

Rural areas were trending R way before trump.

suburbs weren't really trending D before trump. A whole slew of suburban counties trended R in 2012 and 2014.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #59 on: August 22, 2019, 01:06:26 am »

Fyi most the swing from 2012 to 2018 is white suburbans and not minority. In fact minority swing probably hurt.

yep.


TEXAS TRENDED R IN 2012

If a dem in 2020 or beyond does something that pisses off the suburbs, texas will swing back to the GOP.

Well yeah. Backlashes to the party in power are common. Dems made gains in Appalachia in 2018 but no one serious besides Politician thinks that means Democrats will continue making gains there. Doesnít mean theyíll return to the old GOP margins in those place or anywhere near it.

Here's the difference.

appalachia has swung R because they dislike the democratic party's increasingly liberal platform.

the sunbelt suburbs have swung D in the age of trump because they dislike trump.

That is a big difference imo.

What changed between 2014 and 2016 that made the sunbelt suburbs more liberal?

Rural areas were trending R way before trump.

suburbs weren't really trending D before trump. A whole slew of suburban counties trended R in 2012 and 2014.


I will late it out for you.

Secular suburbs started trending D in 1992, really before then but that is when the heavy movement occurred. Evangelical suburbs resisted this trend through the 2000's, but religiousity skews towards Baby Boomers and Silents, and as they are displaced by Millennials and Gen Zers, their concerns will shift from taxes and abortion to the environment, health care and college debt relief.

The number one issue in the suburbs in 2018 was health care, and was for most of this year, but now gun violence is displacing it as top concerns for the suburbs. Suburbs used to vote Republican because they were tough on crime an would cut taxes, well they don't care about taxes anymore in the suburbs and the GOP is failing to protect people from the crime wave of mass shooters that has these suburbs spooked and Democrats are.

As to the elections you mentioned:

2010 and 2014 had lower turnout from Millennials and minorities. 2014 had the lowest turnout by percentage since 1942. Kasich with 63% got 1.9 million votes or so. DeWine who barely won in 2018, got 2.2 million votes. 800,000 Dems just vanished in Ohio in 2014, who turned out in 2010 and 2018. In Nevada, Laxalt with 45% got 70,000 more votes than Sandoval who had 70% in 2014.  Abbott got over 2 million more votes in 2018 compared to 2014 in Texas, while winning by a narrower margin. 

2014 is garbage data, unless you planning to drastically cut voting rights, it is a one off and it isn't happening again.

2012 was a last gasp effect because Romney could juice sunbelt silents and Baby boomer suburbanites. Those people are now seven years older, which means more of them have died. Meanwhile Millennials are aging up to peak voting years and their concerns are different (see above).

To reiterate, Republicans depend on winning the white vote by inflated margins to offset the minority vote in Texas, Georgia etc. Republican's margin with white voters come from silents and baby boomers. As they die off and as millennial whites age into peak voting years, the GOP margins with white voters will recess towards the national average and that is not enough to sustain GOP majorities or even pluralities in TX and GA.

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MarkD
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« Reply #60 on: August 22, 2019, 01:31:54 am »


snip

To reiterate, Republicans depend on winning the white vote by inflated margins to offset the minority vote in Texas, Georgia etc. Republican's margin with white voters come from silents and baby boomers. As they die off and as millennial whites age into peak voting years, the GOP margins with white voters will recess towards the national average and that is not enough to sustain GOP majorities or even pluralities in TX and GA.



This assumes that virtually no Gen X-ers or Gen Y-ers will be getting any more conservative as they age. In other words, for most people, once you choose and ideology and a party affiliation, they never change. Not a good assumption to make.
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #61 on: August 22, 2019, 01:47:22 am »


snip

To reiterate, Republicans depend on winning the white vote by inflated margins to offset the minority vote in Texas, Georgia etc. Republican's margin with white voters come from silents and baby boomers. As they die off and as millennial whites age into peak voting years, the GOP margins with white voters will recess towards the national average and that is not enough to sustain GOP majorities or even pluralities in TX and GA.



This assumes that virtually no Gen X-ers or Gen Y-ers will be getting any more conservative as they age. In other words, for most people, once you choose and ideology and a party affiliation, they never change. Not a good assumption to make.

Millenials and Xers have remained fairly steady in their partisan leanings. In fact Xers in particular have probably gotten more Dem leaning with age.

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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #62 on: August 22, 2019, 02:03:04 am »
« Edited: August 22, 2019, 02:06:11 am by Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee »


snip

To reiterate, Republicans depend on winning the white vote by inflated margins to offset the minority vote in Texas, Georgia etc. Republican's margin with white voters come from silents and baby boomers. As they die off and as millennial whites age into peak voting years, the GOP margins with white voters will recess towards the national average and that is not enough to sustain GOP majorities or even pluralities in TX and GA.



This assumes that virtually no Gen X-ers or Gen Y-ers will be getting any more conservative as they age. In other words, for most people, once you choose and ideology and a party affiliation, they never change. Not a good assumption to make.

Actually it does account for that. I still expect the Republicans to win the white vote in these states after all and that would require some level of people moving right. The point is not enough. The lost margins is the problem, not whites actually flipping.

For instance MS Whites could go 78% Republican and MS would still flip Democratic. They need 85% minimum to stay in the driver's seat.

The conditions that made boomer and silent whites so Republican in the South were unique to that generation, a combination of Civil Rights Era, Evangelical Religious fervor and sense of rugged individualism that was ingrained in that segment from childhood onward.

Younger whites have different experiences, different priorities and thus different partisan affiliations and leanings.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #63 on: August 22, 2019, 02:10:47 am »


snip

To reiterate, Republicans depend on winning the white vote by inflated margins to offset the minority vote in Texas, Georgia etc. Republican's margin with white voters come from silents and baby boomers. As they die off and as millennial whites age into peak voting years, the GOP margins with white voters will recess towards the national average and that is not enough to sustain GOP majorities or even pluralities in TX and GA.



This assumes that virtually no Gen X-ers or Gen Y-ers will be getting any more conservative as they age. In other words, for most people, once you choose and ideology and a party affiliation, they never change. Not a good assumption to make.

Millenials and Xers have remained fairly steady in their partisan leanings. In fact Xers in particular have probably gotten more Dem leaning with age.



The relevant takeaway for the South is what happens when you take away voters who are voting 59%-36% Republican and replace them with people who are voting 52%-41% Democratic.

Even if they shift Republican over time, which is a big if, they won't be anywhere near as Republican as silents and boomers are. That is where the GOP loses their margins to overcome monolithic minority support for Democrats and the sunbelt states start dropping.
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« Reply #64 on: August 22, 2019, 03:19:42 am »


snip

To reiterate, Republicans depend on winning the white vote by inflated margins to offset the minority vote in Texas, Georgia etc. Republican's margin with white voters come from silents and baby boomers. As they die off and as millennial whites age into peak voting years, the GOP margins with white voters will recess towards the national average and that is not enough to sustain GOP majorities or even pluralities in TX and GA.



This assumes that virtually no Gen X-ers or Gen Y-ers will be getting any more conservative as they age. In other words, for most people, once you choose and ideology and a party affiliation, they never change. Not a good assumption to make.

Millenials and Xers have remained fairly steady in their partisan leanings. In fact Xers in particular have probably gotten more Dem leaning with age.




In 1996, voters aged 18-29, being born in 1966-1978 voted for Clinton by 19%, in 2016 those voters now aged 38-50 split 50/50 between Trump and Clinton. Gen X voters have gotten a lot more Republican over the last few decades.

Consider the fact that Trump won whites aged 30-44, by 17%, most of these being Gen X and won whites over the age of 65 by 19%. The Pew data if it was right should have whites over 65 being much more Republican voting then whites in their mid 30's to early 40's but that wasn't the case in 2016.   
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Dirty Dan
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« Reply #65 on: August 22, 2019, 08:25:59 am »




snip

To reiterate, Republicans depend on winning the white vote by inflated margins to offset the minority vote in Texas, Georgia etc. Republican's margin with white voters come from silents and baby boomers. As they die off and as millennial whites age into peak voting years, the GOP margins with white voters will recess towards the national average and that is not enough to sustain GOP majorities or even pluralities in TX and GA.



This assumes that virtually no Gen X-ers or Gen Y-ers will be getting any more conservative as they age. In other words, for most people, once you choose and ideology and a party affiliation, they never change. Not a good assumption to make.

Millenials and Xers have remained fairly steady in their partisan leanings. In fact Xers in particular have probably gotten more Dem leaning with age.




In 1996, voters aged 18-29, being born in 1966-1978 voted for Clinton by 19%, in 2016 those voters now aged 38-50 split 50/50 between Trump and Clinton. Gen X voters have gotten a lot more Republican over the last few decades.

Consider the fact that Trump won whites aged 30-44, by 17%, most of these being Gen X and won whites over the age of 65 by 19%. The Pew data if it was right should have whites over 65 being much more Republican voting then whites in their mid 30's to early 40's but that wasn't the case in 2016.   
It could just be shifting coalitions and not people getting a stake in the status quo that is responsible for this.
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #66 on: August 22, 2019, 11:48:52 am »


snip

To reiterate, Republicans depend on winning the white vote by inflated margins to offset the minority vote in Texas, Georgia etc. Republican's margin with white voters come from silents and baby boomers. As they die off and as millennial whites age into peak voting years, the GOP margins with white voters will recess towards the national average and that is not enough to sustain GOP majorities or even pluralities in TX and GA.



This assumes that virtually no Gen X-ers or Gen Y-ers will be getting any more conservative as they age. In other words, for most people, once you choose and ideology and a party affiliation, they never change. Not a good assumption to make.

Millenials and Xers have remained fairly steady in their partisan leanings. In fact Xers in particular have probably gotten more Dem leaning with age.


In 1996, voters aged 18-29, being born in 1966-1978 voted for Clinton by 19%, in 2016 those voters now aged 38-50 split 50/50 between Trump and Clinton. Gen X voters have gotten a lot more Republican over the last few decades.

Consider the fact that Trump won whites aged 30-44, by 17%, most of these being Gen X and won whites over the age of 65 by 19%. The Pew data if it was right should have whites over 65 being much more Republican voting then whites in their mid 30's to early 40's but that wasn't the case in 2016.  

This could be true nationally but definitely hasnít been the case in states like Texas and Georgia where the Gen X/Gen Y voting populations have stayed consistently to the left in normal turnout elections (likely due to the heavy number of minorities that occupy this age range in these states).

The shift of white Xers/Yers to the GOP has largely come from whites with no college degree in places like the upland south, Midwest, Interior Plains, New England, etc.
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Dirty Dan
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« Reply #67 on: August 22, 2019, 12:29:28 pm »


snip

To reiterate, Republicans depend on winning the white vote by inflated margins to offset the minority vote in Texas, Georgia etc. Republican's margin with white voters come from silents and baby boomers. As they die off and as millennial whites age into peak voting years, the GOP margins with white voters will recess towards the national average and that is not enough to sustain GOP majorities or even pluralities in TX and GA.



This assumes that virtually no Gen X-ers or Gen Y-ers will be getting any more conservative as they age. In other words, for most people, once you choose and ideology and a party affiliation, they never change. Not a good assumption to make.

Millenials and Xers have remained fairly steady in their partisan leanings. In fact Xers in particular have probably gotten more Dem leaning with age.


In 1996, voters aged 18-29, being born in 1966-1978 voted for Clinton by 19%, in 2016 those voters now aged 38-50 split 50/50 between Trump and Clinton. Gen X voters have gotten a lot more Republican over the last few decades.

Consider the fact that Trump won whites aged 30-44, by 17%, most of these being Gen X and won whites over the age of 65 by 19%. The Pew data if it was right should have whites over 65 being much more Republican voting then whites in their mid 30's to early 40's but that wasn't the case in 2016.  

This could be true nationally but definitely hasnít been the case in states like Texas and Georgia where the Gen X/Gen Y voting populations have stayed consistently to the left in normal turnout elections (likely due to the heavy number of minorities that occupy this age range in these states).

The shift of white Xers/Yers to the GOP has largely come from whites with no college degree in places like the upland south, Midwest, Interior Plains, New England, etc.

Again. Changing coalitions. Its more likely that these voters are just trying to protect their aging natural resource industries and their service jobs from foreign competition than thinking that their bigger paycheck has made them more vulnerable to taxation or that they think Republicans can take of their kids better.
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marty
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« Reply #68 on: August 22, 2019, 12:31:23 pm »

Itís just so hard to me to buy the idea that demographics are destiny when this country has been getting browner in every election since the 90s and there really isnít any evidence that there is some trend of a drop in gop support

The 2016 result should have blown up the hypothesis, imo. Itís like the blue wall crap

It relies on the assumption that margins among groups stays constant. It just isnít true. There has never been a time in our history when a party had a lock on the presidency due to some exogenous factor.

Harry enten likes to make this point in his podcast: the 2014 electorate was as diverse as the 2008 Electorate, and if turnout was identical to 2008, the gop still would have won 2014 by 4 points.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #69 on: August 22, 2019, 04:39:10 pm »

Itís just so hard to me to buy the idea that demographics are destiny when this country has been getting browner in every election since the 90s and there really isnít any evidence that there is some trend of a drop in gop support

The 2016 result should have blown up the hypothesis, imo. Itís like the blue wall crap

It relies on the assumption that margins among groups stays constant. It just isnít true. There has never been a time in our history when a party had a lock on the presidency due to some exogenous factor.

Harry enten likes to make this point in his podcast: the 2014 electorate was as diverse as the 2008 Electorate, and if turnout was identical to 2008, the gop still would have won 2014 by 4 points.

That's because Democrats way underestimated how high the GOP can max out white support in particular areas, especially in rural areas and the south. Now it's creeping up to the Midwest, which is mostly 80% or more white. There's no more white people for the GOP to exploit in the South in states like GA and TX
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« Reply #70 on: August 22, 2019, 05:00:09 pm »

Realignments happen under the cover of landslide victories. OK, it is possible that after 24 years the map of a Republican victory of 1953 looks very similar from the map of a Republican victory of 1928, but the map of 1992 is very different from that of 1976. Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter are very similar in ideology and come from similar parts of the country... yet Bill Clinton could not win Mississippi or Texas.

Should a Democratic nominee for President win Texas in 2020, then that nominee is getting 400 or so electoral votes, more than any Democratic nominee for President since LBJ blew out Barry Goldwater.

Republicans can hope that the Democrat who defeats Trump will get ensnared in another Great Depression that gets people begging for a Christian and Corporate state...   
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marty
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« Reply #71 on: August 22, 2019, 07:23:28 pm »

Realignments happen under the cover of landslide victories. OK, it is possible that after 24 years the map of a Republican victory of 1953 looks very similar from the map of a Republican victory of 1928, but the map of 1992 is very different from that of 1976. Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter are very similar in ideology and come from similar parts of the country... yet Bill Clinton could not win Mississippi or Texas.

Should a Democratic nominee for President win Texas in 2020, then that nominee is getting 400 or so electoral votes, more than any Democratic nominee for President since LBJ blew out Barry Goldwater.

Republicans can hope that the Democrat who defeats Trump will get ensnared in another Great Depression that gets people begging for a Christian and Corporate state...   

Hereís my view summed up:

70% of Americans are not democrats

70% of Americans are not republicans

He or she who wins the middle wins the election

This is why parties can rebound. The middle gets fed up and wants change.
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #72 on: August 22, 2019, 09:32:51 pm »

Hereís my view summed up:

70% of Americans are not democrats

70% of Americans are not republicans

He or she who wins the middle wins the election

This is why parties can rebound. The middle gets fed up and wants change.

You're very naif.
There are many more dynamics at play than pandering to the mythical "middle".
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #73 on: August 23, 2019, 02:33:07 am »

Itís just so hard to me to buy the idea that demographics are destiny when this country has been getting browner in every election since the 90s and there really isnít any evidence that there is some trend of a drop in gop support

The 2016 result should have blown up the hypothesis, imo. Itís like the blue wall crap

It relies on the assumption that margins among groups stays constant. It just isnít true. There has never been a time in our history when a party had a lock on the presidency due to some exogenous factor.

Harry enten likes to make this point in his podcast: the 2014 electorate was as diverse as the 2008 Electorate, and if turnout was identical to 2008, the gop still would have won 2014 by 4 points.

Then why haven't CO and VA come back? It isn't because of Hispanics, it is because of secular whites displacing Evangelical Whites.

Why did Trump find a path of lesser resistance through the rust belt compared to the Bush path of winning VA/CO/NV?  2016 confirms this, not rejects it. It rejects the blue wall yes, but the blue wall was shallow "Democrats have always won x, Trump cannot possibly win it". And also, "Republicans have maxed out among whites in the Midwest, they want higher incomes and unions above that point and thus they cannot possibly gain more". Trump won populist Midwest whites via protectionist appeals. This allowed him to juice non-college white vote to 65%-29% Republican (more than Reagan got with this group) and flip the rust belt even while under-performing Romney with college educated whites.

2014 was not the same electorate as 2008. Top line racial states might have been the same, but it was not the same electorate. Yes, the GOP would have still won 2014 with 2008 turnout, but Gardner would have lost, Gillespie would not have come so close and Kasich would not have got 64%, nor would Sandoval have reached 70%.

Margins among groups don't stay constant, that is precisely my point. Whites will not remain at their inflated levels once the Baby Boomers and Silents are gone. Will whites remain Republican? Yes! Will younger whites become more Republican then they are now? Yes. The important point is, will they be as Republican as whites are currently? No And this why GA and TX are going to turn blue, unless Republicans can somehow walk and chew gum at the same time and begin to peel off minorities.



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« Reply #74 on: August 23, 2019, 02:36:53 am »

Realignments happen under the cover of landslide victories. OK, it is possible that after 24 years the map of a Republican victory of 1953 looks very similar from the map of a Republican victory of 1928, but the map of 1992 is very different from that of 1976. Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter are very similar in ideology and come from similar parts of the country... yet Bill Clinton could not win Mississippi or Texas.

Should a Democratic nominee for President win Texas in 2020, then that nominee is getting 400 or so electoral votes, more than any Democratic nominee for President since LBJ blew out Barry Goldwater.

Republicans can hope that the Democrat who defeats Trump will get ensnared in another Great Depression that gets people begging for a Christian and Corporate state...   

Hereís my view summed up:

70% of Americans are not democrats

70% of Americans are not republicans

He or she who wins the middle wins the election

This is why parties can rebound. The middle gets fed up and wants change.

There are far fewer swing voters than that. Many indies are actually either Democrats or Republicans and they almost always vote for their leaning party. Look at the exit polling, among those who actually vote, Party ID for both parties in close states like Florida, is around 40%. In some places it is the mid 40's even.
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