If Texas flips it may set of a beginning of a totally new realignment of the map

[OSR stands with Israel]

Because the fact is Texas is not Virginia , it is not a state that the GOP can make up for losing as without TX the GOP dont have a path to 270. Due to that I think if Texas Flips,  it will set of a new realignment and within 8-12 years the entire map will look so remarkably different that we wont be able to recognize today.  Many trends we are seeing today will reverse, or there may be trends we don't even think about happening which will happen.

If Trump wins in 2020, this will probably happen and by 2032 or 2036 the map will be unrecognizable to today. On the other hand if Trump loses by even a 2012 style Romney margin EC wise then , I think the previous alignment may return (not pre 2008 but pre 2016 alignment)

[OSR stands with Israel]

Because the fact is Texas is not Virginia , it is not a state that the GOP can make up for losing as without TX the GOP dont have a path to 270. Due to that I think if Texas Flips,  it will set of a new realignment and within 8-12 years the entire map will look so remarkably different that we wont be able to recognize today.  Many trends we are seeing today will reverse, or there may be trends we don't even think about happening which will happen.

If Trump wins in 2020, this will probably happen and by 2032 or 2036 the map will be unrecognizable to today. On the other hand if Trump loses by even a 2012 style Romney margin EC wise then , I think the previous alignment may return (not pre 2008 but pre 2016 alignment)

Why would this happen though? What does Texas have to do with it? Is it the idea that losing Texas will force Republicans to totally change their strategy and policies? That would take a lot longer than a decade to yield results, and generally voters are a lot less focused on concrete policy than people like to think. If they were, Trump supporters would be holding dear leader's feet to the fire more often. Instead, they just go along with whatever he wants.

Losing elections tends to do that , and cause parties to change. It still will take 8-12 years though but it does happen

[OSR stands with Israel]

The last time a Republican won without California or Texas (with 93 EVs now and all but certain to gain more after reapportionment) was in 1880 (when they had 14)

A new realignment could flip TX back , just with unrecognizable party coalitions

[OSR stands with Israel]

The last time a Republican won without California or Texas (with 93 EVs now and all but certain to gain more after reapportionment) was in 1880 (when they had 14)

A new realignment could flip TX back , just with unrecognizable party coalitions

The late 19th century was also the last time we had anything like this level of urban/rural polarization.  Seems reasonable to expect most of the large states to be Dem leaning down the line.

What I’m saying is it won’t last for long . By 2032 or 2036 we will be in a new era

[OSR stands with Israel]

It’s possible that when Texas flips, we’ll be in an era of 49-state victories.

WY, ID, OK will make sure that never happens

[OSR stands with Israel]

The last time a Republican won without California or Texas (with 93 EVs now and all but certain to gain more after reapportionment) was in 1880 (when they had 14)

A new realignment could flip TX back , just with unrecognizable party coalitions

The late 19th century was also the last time we had anything like this level of urban/rural polarization.  Seems reasonable to expect most of the large states to be Dem leaning down the line.

What I’m saying is it won’t last for long . By 2032 or 2036 we will be in a new era

I don’t know why you’re so adamant that if Texas flips, Republicans WILL get it back. Usually once a state is gone, it’s gone for a long time. Just because Republicans magically decide they need to get less racist won’t win Texas back lol

They will need one of TX/CA/NY to win elections and what I mean by flip doesnt mean flip like VA has , just vote the other way.

And I said it will take 8-12 years which isnt quick either

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think it would just force Republicans to go all in on the industrial/post-industrial Midwest and retirees (hold Florida, NC, maybe not get wiped out in AZ), on the assumption that the South is giving out.  There would end up being little or no difference in family income between the party coalitions.  Democrats are gradually able to contest the Plains and Republicans the Northeast (except for MA as Boston seems to be following the Southern/Western metro trajectory).  Small cities become the most important electoral battleground.

LMAO no, 2016 trends are not guaranteed to repeat for 6+ cycles. By that point something will have happened to disrupt them.

They haven't repeated per se in every single election like 2012 but 2016 trends are just a further culmination of 88 to 2016 trends. The two best counties to show this are Anne Arrundel Md and Jefferson TX. Sure they actually flipped in 2016 but the margins or atleast PVI generally kept growing narrower and narrower. I wouldn't say they are certain to continue but in the medium-longish term that is exactly what has happened.This is a general idea of course. Like rural New England is a bit different.

The 1980s were a further culmination of trends that began in 1952 as well and in 1992 it stopped to continue. 1984/88 were the tipping points of when the Dems realized they had no path to 270 anymore and then began to correct course which the GOP will do as well.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This meme that 2016 was simply a continuation of previous trends needs to stop, there were entire areas of the country that were trending democrat that trended hard Republican in 2016, there were counties in Appalachian Ohio that swung towards Obama from 2008-2012 which meant they trended democratic in a big way that swung 20-30 points towards Trump. There were counties in Wisconsin that had been trending democrat for decades that swung hard towards Trump.

This is why I think if/when Texas does flip (assuming it's not just a double digit Dem landslide scenario), it will be gone for a generation or more like it was from 1980-2016 and Republicans will look elsewhere to rebuild after a cycle or 2, probably to NY and the NE more generally.

The Demographics are much much worse for the GOP in NY than TX . Dems made up losing TX by winning CA (which had signs of being a future Dem state in 1972 , Carter and Reagan just delayed it another 8 years )GOP just doesn’t have another option .

[OSR stands with Israel]

Republicans will have a narrow path to victory if TX goes blue in the future. They could win MN, NH, ME and lose AZ and they'd be fine. Yes, I did current 2024 projections and if Republicans win 2016+MN, NH, ME at large and lose TX and AZ they'd be at 271. Pulling an upset victory in VA or a solidly Democratic state in the Northeast would open up more options too.

I don't even think TX will flip blue for a few more cycles anyway and I think the GOP can still win TX in a best case scenario long after the current era.

If they lose TX they will lose GA as well