If Texas flips it may set of a beginning of a totally new realignment of the map

[Person Man]

snip

To reiterate, Republicans depend on winning the white vote by inflated margins to offset the minority vote in Texas, Georgia etc. Republican's margin with white voters come from silents and baby boomers. As they die off and as millennial whites age into peak voting years, the GOP margins with white voters will recess towards the national average and that is not enough to sustain GOP majorities or even pluralities in TX and GA.

This assumes that virtually no Gen X-ers or Gen Y-ers will be getting any more conservative as they age. In other words, for most people, once you choose and ideology and a party affiliation, they never change. Not a good assumption to make.

Millenials and Xers have remained fairly steady in their partisan leanings. In fact Xers in particular have probably gotten more Dem leaning with age.

In 1996, voters aged 18-29, being born in 1966-1978 voted for Clinton by 19%, in 2016 those voters now aged 38-50 split 50/50 between Trump and Clinton. Gen X voters have gotten a lot more Republican over the last few decades.

Consider the fact that Trump won whites aged 30-44, by 17%, most of these being Gen X and won whites over the age of 65 by 19%. The Pew data if it was right should have whites over 65 being much more Republican voting then whites in their mid 30's to early 40's but that wasn't the case in 2016.   

It could just be shifting coalitions and not people getting a stake in the status quo that is responsible for this.

[Person Man]

snip

To reiterate, Republicans depend on winning the white vote by inflated margins to offset the minority vote in Texas, Georgia etc. Republican's margin with white voters come from silents and baby boomers. As they die off and as millennial whites age into peak voting years, the GOP margins with white voters will recess towards the national average and that is not enough to sustain GOP majorities or even pluralities in TX and GA.

This assumes that virtually no Gen X-ers or Gen Y-ers will be getting any more conservative as they age. In other words, for most people, once you choose and ideology and a party affiliation, they never change. Not a good assumption to make.

Millenials and Xers have remained fairly steady in their partisan leanings. In fact Xers in particular have probably gotten more Dem leaning with age.

In 1996, voters aged 18-29, being born in 1966-1978 voted for Clinton by 19%, in 2016 those voters now aged 38-50 split 50/50 between Trump and Clinton. Gen X voters have gotten a lot more Republican over the last few decades.

Consider the fact that Trump won whites aged 30-44, by 17%, most of these being Gen X and won whites over the age of 65 by 19%. The Pew data if it was right should have whites over 65 being much more Republican voting then whites in their mid 30's to early 40's but that wasn't the case in 2016.  

This could be true nationally but definitely hasn’t been the case in states like Texas and Georgia where the Gen X/Gen Y voting populations have stayed consistently to the left in normal turnout elections (likely due to the heavy number of minorities that occupy this age range in these states).

The shift of white Xers/Yers to the GOP has largely come from whites with no college degree in places like the upland south, Midwest, Interior Plains, New England, etc.

Again. Changing coalitions. Its more likely that these voters are just trying to protect their aging natural resource industries and their service jobs from foreign competition than thinking that their bigger paycheck has made them more vulnerable to taxation or that they think Republicans can take of their kids better.