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Author Topic: Worldwide elections  (Read 1424 times)
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BRTD
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« on: December 03, 2005, 07:26:58 pm »

After finding this wonderful thread by Lewis: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=6691.0 I wondered how all these would vote. Obviously there would be no worldwide parties but probably blocks in the legislature, kind of like the EU parliament. What type of block would each of these vote for?
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Jake
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« Reply #1 on: December 03, 2005, 11:02:49 pm »

I imagine the parliament would have a the following blocks:

Islamic
Social Democratic (Zapatero type)
Liberal Democratic (Clinton/Kennedy type)
Conservative (Howard type)
Communist/Marxist (Castro type)
various Nationalist parties (I imagine they would do well in the US)

The US would split between the Lib Dems in California, the Northwest, and New England; the Conservatives and Nationalists elsewhere. Most of Europe would be fought over between the Lib Dems and Social Dems. Poor Africa and Asia would vote Social Dems and Communist. India would split between the Social Dems and various nationalist parties (Hindu, Islamic, etc.). China would swing between Communist and Social Dems, with maybe some Lib Dem influence. Japan would go for the Lib Dems, Social Dems, and Conservatives. Australia would probably vote Conservative and Lib Dems. South America would be fought over by the Social Dems, Communists, and Conservatives. Mexico would be Social Dems, Communists, and Conservatives. Canada would fit in with Europe. Russia would be the enigma, though I expect it would vote Social Dems and Lib Dems. The Middle East would be Islamic dominated, though split between various branches.
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opebo
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« Reply #2 on: December 04, 2005, 06:28:10 am »

Pretty good analysis, Jake, though I think that much of 'poor asia' would vote a bit further right than you think.  Look at Thailand's oppressive govnerment - Thaksin is a social conservative as well as fairly pro-rich economically.  The Democrats here - who would roughly correspond to the Liberal Democratic type, get maybe 35% of the vote.  These areas of the world are much more fascistically inclined than you may realize.
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Jake
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« Reply #3 on: December 04, 2005, 12:07:33 pm »

What areas of Thailand tend to be poor opebo? I found constituency results from this year and I'm interested to know if Thaksin had his support in those areas.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #4 on: December 04, 2005, 12:09:19 pm »

What areas of Thailand tend to be poor

Most of the country. The slums of Parasite City are about the worst though IIRC.
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opebo
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« Reply #5 on: December 04, 2005, 02:04:17 pm »

What areas of Thailand tend to be poor

Most of the country. The slums of Parasite City are about the worst though IIRC.

Actually Bangkok and a fairly large central region (Central and East on the map) is not very poor - its per capita GDP is not far from the Taiwan/Singapore level.  However, the Northeast (Isaan) is very poor - its people are ethnically Lao and Khmer (Laotian and Cambodian), and so are looked down upon by the Central Thais.  The North is also nearly as poor, but the Southern Region is middle income.  The only area that didn't go strongly for Thaksin was the South and a few Bangkok precincts (I believe the mayor of Bangkok is a Democrat).
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #6 on: December 04, 2005, 04:16:50 pm »

Actually Bangkok and a fairly large central region (Central and East on the map) is not very poor - its per capita GDP is not far from the Taiwan/Singapore level.

Oh please, GDP per capita is no way to measure poverty. Bangkok has a certain amount of very, very rich people and sucks in most of the wealth from the rest of the country without giving much back in return. And at the same time it has some big, big slums and major problems with all kinds of things that are generally regarded as indicators of deprivation.
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David S
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« Reply #7 on: December 04, 2005, 04:29:11 pm »

BRTD I'm curious as to why you would want this to happen.
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opebo
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« Reply #8 on: December 04, 2005, 05:04:51 pm »

Actually Bangkok and a fairly large central region (Central and East on the map) is not very poor - its per capita GDP is not far from the Taiwan/Singapore level.

Oh please, GDP per capita is no way to measure poverty. Bangkok has a certain amount of very, very rich people and sucks in most of the wealth from the rest of the country without giving much back in return.

Of course, that is the function of all capitalist economic centres, Al.  In fairness though, a great deal of the countries GDP is also produced in Bangkok.

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And at the same time it has some big, big slums and major problems with all kinds of things that are generally regarded as indicators of deprivation.

Yes, it is a third world metropolis, though far, far less bad than places such as Jakarta, Manila, Mexico City, Sao Paulo, and of course any African city.  One reason for this is that it really isn't so big - only about eight million - it isn't quite as poor as some others, and of course the culture here does tend to be a bit less violent than in Latin America or Africa.

Anyway, you'll get no argument from me that inequality is quite bad here, Al, but it really isn't any worse than anywhere else in the third world, and is certainly on a par with the USA.  The average worker here certainly does get enough to scrape by, just about like anywhere else.  The interesting thing about Bangkok 'slums' is that they are more like slums in the US - just a lot of poor looking buildings - not actual shantytowns such as in the really desperate third world.  Shantytowns here are only a very small proportion of the working class housing.
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BRTD
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« Reply #9 on: December 04, 2005, 05:08:07 pm »

BRTD I'm curious as to why you would want this to happen.

Academic interest. Same reason Lewis did that.
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BRTD
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« Reply #10 on: December 04, 2005, 05:12:44 pm »

I do recall opebo saying that even Thailand is developing awful suburbs around Bangkok, which I doubt would be too poor. Of course, are these actual suburbs, or simply suburban areas within Bangkok proper?

Oh, did the South also vote against Thaksin because they are Muslim? It would be odd if Muslims actually voted for the more liberal party.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #11 on: December 04, 2005, 05:21:52 pm »

Of course, that is the function of all capitalist economic centres, Al.

Not at all. It's the function of parasite capital cities though; and they've been around long before anything that could be described as capitalism existed.

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In fairness though, a great deal of the countries GDP is also produced in Bangkok.

Not that that means much. A lot of that GDP isn't really "real".

Quote
Yes, it is a third world metropolis, though far, far less bad than places such as Jakarta, Manila, Mexico City, Sao Paulo, and of course any African city.

That's a little bit like saying that a large skip isn't as much of an eyesore as a small landfill site...

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and is certainly on a par with the USA.

Roll Eyes
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #12 on: December 04, 2005, 05:24:57 pm »

It would be odd if Muslims actually voted for the more liberal party.

*blinks*

Do you actually know *anything* about the voting habits of Muslims or?...
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BRTD
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« Reply #13 on: December 04, 2005, 05:27:45 pm »

It would be odd if Muslims actually voted for the more liberal party.

*blinks*

Do you actually know *anything* about the voting habits of Muslims or?...

Well I do know that they voted over 80% for Bush in 2000.
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opebo
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« Reply #14 on: December 04, 2005, 06:02:56 pm »

Of course, that is the function of all capitalist economic centres, Al.

Not at all. It's the function of parasite capital cities though; and they've been around long before anything that could be described as capitalism existed.

Your arguments sound so familiar - I think we may have read the same book.  What is that book that outlines the parasitic nature of some third world capitals?  I can't remember as it has been many years since I read it.

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In fairness though, a great deal of the countries GDP is also produced in Bangkok.

Not that that means much. A lot of that GDP isn't really "real".

Well, the place is full of factories.. people are certainly getting exploited there.  Of course most of them are from Isaan and the North.

Quote
Quote
Yes, it is a third world metropolis, though far, far less bad than places such as Jakarta, Manila, Mexico City, Sao Paulo, and of course any African city.

That's a little bit like saying that a large skip isn't as much of an eyesore as a small landfill site...

Well, true, but you really should come take a look - Bangkok isn't all that rough looking.  In fact I often remark when I'm driving around poor parts of St. Louis - 'wow, this is worse than Thailand, by far'.

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and is certainly on a par with the USA.

Roll Eyes

Again, come take a look.  The slums and desperation in the US really are at least as bad as those in Thailand.

From the UNDP: 
The Gini Index of inequality is not very different in the US and Thailand -
US - 40.8
Thailand - 43.2
http://www.undp.org/hdr2003/indicator/indic_126_1_1.html
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opebo
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« Reply #15 on: December 05, 2005, 07:02:34 am »

What areas of Thailand tend to be poor opebo? I found constituency results from this year and I'm interested to know if Thaksin had his support in those areas.

Jake, I'd like to see those constitutency results and your opinion about them.  Do you have a link to the results?
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Jake
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« Reply #16 on: December 05, 2005, 03:41:23 pm »

http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/t/thailand/
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