First off, I think had he lived it’s almost a lockstep guarantee that RFK becomes President. The question is whether it happens in ‘68 or later on. Back then the nominating process wasn’t all about the primaries. They played a role in giving the delegates and party bosses clues about who they should pick but it wasn’t the whole ballgame & despite both being unpopular AND his lame duck status President Johnson did have some control and influence over the convention. So I’m sure he would have done everything in his power to make sure RFK didn’t win the nomination.
With that being said it’s not a sure thing he DOESN'T get it. He won all but 1 of the primaries he entered. He won the “big one”, California - in impressive fashion. He appealed to both moderates and liberals alike. He had the support of white working class voters and support of the African American community. Then there was the sympathy vote of being a Kennedy and also a deep yearning by the electorate to return to Camelot and a return to the America that ceased to exist after Dallas.
Now IF Mayor Daley thought RFK would carry Illinois and another candidate couldn’t. If RFK’s primary wins were considered impressive enough. If the delegates and party bosses were persuaded by the grass roots support that Bobby’s campaign was fueled by - IF Robert F Kennedy DID win the nomination in 1968: Here is what would happen.
I think that RFK’s weakness would clearly be in the once solid south. SO he would pick Terry Sanford as his running mate. Because of this I think he pulls over a lot of moderate voters who voted for both Nixon and Wallace, giving him North Carolina’s electoral votes. Unfortunately I don’t think the VP pick has much of an impact elsewhere in the South. I think Texas goes to Nixon because RFK being seen as someone not exactly in tune with LBJ.... However: virtually everywhere else RFK improves upon what Humphrey did. Including taking Nixons home state and the mother load of electoral votes: California. RFK carries almost all of the states Humphrey lost by under 4 points - including Missouri, Wisconsin, New Jersey, Ohio, Illinois, Delaware and perhaps most surprisingly of all: Alaska - all go to Bobby. Meanwhile in the northeast, RFK garners MAJOR support. Winning every single electoral vote in that region. Nationwide, Massachusetts the home base of the Kennedy’s proves to be his strongest state where he gets an astounding 78% of the vote. In neighboring Rhode Island he also crosses the 70% threshold as well. Elsewhere in New England, he flips two Republican strongholds of Vermont and New Hampshire, winning then each by 3-5 points each. In the Midwest the Mayor Daley machine proves decisive for the Kennedy’s once again - giving RFK a massive plurality leading to him carrying the state with 55% of the vote.
•
328 • 48.4%
VP Richard Nixon/ Gov. Spiro Agnew •
154 • 40.9%
Gov. George Wallace/ Curtis Lemay •
56 • 10.3%
