2024 after two terms of Hillary
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  Alternative Elections (Moderator: Dereich)
  2024 after two terms of Hillary
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President Johnson
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« on: August 03, 2019, 04:06:53 AM »

Hillary not just wins 2016 over Trump, in 2020 she gets reelected, defeating Ted Cruz. What happens in 2024? On the Democratic side, Vice President Tim Kaine declines to run. At that point, Democrats controlled the White House for 16 years.
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andjey
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« Reply #1 on: August 03, 2019, 06:01:18 AM »



Gov. Charlie Baker (R-MA)/Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) 54% PV; 363 EVs
Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Fmr. Sen. Jason Kander (D-MO) 46% PV; 172 EVs

If Hillary won in 2016, then I see, that Democrats gain Senate (gain IL, NH, WI, PA, MO) and gain 10-15 more seats in House of Representatives, so we have D President, D Senate and R House

Senate: 51 Democrats, 49 Republicans
House: 230 Republicans, 205 Democrats

In 2018, Democrats, especially in the Senate, are in a big trouble
Senate: 55 Republicans, 45 Democrats (R gain IN, FL (open), MO (open), MT (open), ND, WV (open))
House: 250 Republicans, 185 Democrats

In 2020
Senate: 54 Republicans, 46 Democrats (D gain CO)
House: 240 Republicans, 195 Democrats

In 2022
Senate: 59 Republicans, 41 Democrats (R gain NV, NH, PA, MO (open), WI (open))
House: 265 Republicans, 170 Democrats (Many Republican Governors controlled redistricting
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #2 on: August 03, 2019, 09:15:16 AM »
« Edited: August 03, 2019, 09:19:52 AM by Frenchrepublican »

Had Clinton won in 2016, I guess that Senate democrats would have flipped IL/NH/PA and House democrats would have won a few more seats that they won in the reality (CA49, NY22, TX23, VA10), but they would have obviously failled to win a majority in either chamber of the Congress.

By January 2017 the situation would look like this :
Senate: 49 Democrats / 51 Republicans
House: 200 Democrats / 235 Republicans

In 2018, Democrats get trounced, it's basically a 2014 scenario.
In the House: Democrats lose 15 seats (MN1, MN8, MN7, PA08, NY18, AZ1, TX23, NH1, NY22, NJ5, IA2, CA16, FL13, NY3, OR4) : 250 Republicans, 185 Democrats
In the Senate: Democrats lose ND, MO, IN, FL, WV, MT, OH, MI, obviously democrats don't flip AZ nor NV. There is no special election in AL in 2017, thus no Senator Jones

By January 2019 the situation looks like this :
Senate : 41 Democrats / 59 Republicans
House : 185 Democrats / 250 Republicans

In 2020 Democrats rebound a bit but they are still deep in the minority
In the Senate: CO flips to democrats, otherwise no change
In the House House: democrats rebound a bit (TX23, CA16, FL13 flip back, democrats take CO6 + CA25 mostly because of demographic changes)

By January 2021 the situation would look like this :
Senate : 42 Democrats / 58 Republicans
House : 189 Democrats / 246 Republicans

In 2022 Democrats continue to lose ground
In the Senate : Democrats lose NV, NH and PA
In the House : Democrats lose 10 seats

By January 2023 the situation looks like this :
Senate : 39 Democrats / 61 Republicans  
House : 179 Democrats / 256 Republicans


In 2024 the presidential map looks like this :


In the Senate : Democrats lose WI, Casey barely survives in PA after a recount, otherwise no change
In the House : Democrats have a net gain of 2 seats but they are still in a hole

By January 2025
Senate : 38 Democrats / 62 Republicans
House : 181 Democrats / 254 Republicans
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