Prediction: MS Gov. Primary Tues.
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  Prediction: MS Gov. Primary Tues.
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Author Topic: Prediction: MS Gov. Primary Tues.  (Read 6135 times)
Matty
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« Reply #75 on: August 27, 2019, 07:30:37 PM »

Any non nyt result Page?

Paywall and private browsing doesn’t work anymore
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Politician
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« Reply #76 on: August 27, 2019, 07:31:32 PM »

Yikes

https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2019/08/27/voting-machine-problems-video-changing-vote-bill-waller-tate-reeves-ms-election-governor-runoff/2129515001/
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #77 on: August 27, 2019, 07:38:01 PM »

Any non nyt result Page?

Paywall and private browsing doesn’t work anymore

It's working for me.

Anyway, it's current 58-41 Reeves.

It's not looking much better than that for Waller if Warren is anything to go by.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #78 on: August 27, 2019, 07:40:27 PM »

Here's DDHQ's if you are Paywalled, unlike me. Both sites only really have results from Warren.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/reeves-vs-waller-in-the-mississippi-gop-gubernatorial-runoff-election/
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Matty
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« Reply #79 on: August 27, 2019, 07:54:59 PM »

Waller up 50.5-49.5!
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Cashew
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« Reply #80 on: August 27, 2019, 07:55:43 PM »

Just to review, Waller is the guy who is liked by moderate suburban college repubs right?

Waller's the guy who won't be alone with a woman for any reason, even a fellow Supreme Court justice in a totally professional context. So ... maybe?

No that's Robert Foster.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #81 on: August 27, 2019, 08:40:20 PM »

Looks like Andy Taggart will have a very respectable showing, but Reeves appears to be on-track for an 8-10 point win.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #82 on: August 27, 2019, 09:03:57 PM »

NYT called for Reeves.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #83 on: August 27, 2019, 09:07:53 PM »

Really kind of dull.  Waller got a little traction in the NE, but he got totally crushed on the Gulf Coast.  By and large though very little different from the first round.
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136or142
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« Reply #84 on: August 27, 2019, 10:01:36 PM »

The AG race is close though

>   Lynn Fitch   157,053   52%
    Andy Taggart   146,405   48%
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #85 on: August 27, 2019, 10:20:41 PM »

The AG race is close though

>   Lynn Fitch   157,053   52%
    Andy Taggart   146,405   48%


This is actually surprising.  Looking at the county results seems to suggest there were a good number of Reeves/Taggart voters and Waller/Fitch voters in Metro Jackson and the Northeast, respectively.  I wonder what’s driving this dynamic.
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gespb19
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« Reply #86 on: August 28, 2019, 02:00:05 AM »

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OneJ
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« Reply #87 on: August 28, 2019, 07:44:55 AM »

The AG race is close though

> Lynn Fitch 157,053 52%
 Andy Taggart 146,405 48%


This is actually surprising.  Looking at the county results seems to suggest there were a good number of Reeves/Taggart voters and Waller/Fitch voters in Metro Jackson and the Northeast, respectively.  I wonder what’s driving this dynamic.

I was definitely surprised by this too.
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Thunder98
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« Reply #88 on: August 28, 2019, 05:27:40 PM »

My runoff prediction

Reeves 55% - Waller 45%


Aye I was close!

The actual result was 54.27% Reeves - Waller 45.73%

https://decisiondeskhq.com/reeves-vs-waller-in-the-mississippi-gop-gubernatorial-runoff-election/
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #89 on: August 29, 2019, 11:19:27 AM »
« Edited: August 29, 2019, 11:35:43 AM by DINGO Joe stands on Sanchez »

Waller did win all the "educated" county in the State, it's just that they don't have that many votes.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #90 on: August 29, 2019, 11:58:24 AM »

Waller did win all the "educated" county in the State, it's just that they don't have that many votes.

The MS Gulf Coast is relatively educated and it delivered
The AG race is close though

> Lynn Fitch 157,053 52%
 Andy Taggart 146,405 48%


This is actually surprising.  Looking at the county results seems to suggest there were a good number of Reeves/Taggart voters and Waller/Fitch voters in Metro Jackson and the Northeast, respectively.  I wonder what’s driving this dynamic.

I was definitely surprised by this too.

I'll just chalk it up to the AG's race being less defined by policy and more personality-driven.  Lynn Fitch would be more well known in the northern regions of the state, whereas Andy Taggert has been on TV in Metro Jackson for a long time.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #91 on: August 29, 2019, 12:26:46 PM »

Waller did win all the "educated" county in the State, it's just that they don't have that many votes.

The MS Gulf Coast is relatively educated and it delivered

I thought the Gulf Coast would be educated too, but it really isn't, at least according to the Census

Top counties with Bachelor Degree or higher

Madison 46.5
Oktibbeha 42.6
Lafayette 41.9
Lamar 35.9
Rankin 29.2
Hinds 28.6
Forrest 26.7

The GC ranged from 20.7 to 22.2

Why did Reeves do so well on the Coast?  Was he in tight with the Casinos?
 
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OneJ
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« Reply #92 on: August 29, 2019, 01:00:58 PM »

Waller did win all the "educated" county in the State, it's just that they don't have that many votes.

The MS Gulf Coast is relatively educated and it delivered
The AG race is close though

> Lynn Fitch 157,053 52%
 Andy Taggart 146,405 48%


This is actually surprising.  Looking at the county results seems to suggest there were a good number of Reeves/Taggart voters and Waller/Fitch voters in Metro Jackson and the Northeast, respectively.  I wonder what’s driving this dynamic.

I was definitely surprised by this too.

I'll just chalk it up to the AG's race being less defined by policy and more personality-driven.  Lynn Fitch would be more well known in the northern regions of the state, whereas Andy Taggert has been on TV in Metro Jackson for a long time.

This is a good point, especially about Taggart.

One thing that really stood out to me between the two runoffs was the difference between Reeves and Fitch in Marshall County, which is Fitch's home county as she's from Holly Springs. Reeves garnered 81% while Fitch just managed to get 54%. It's just quite strange to me.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #93 on: August 29, 2019, 01:31:06 PM »

Waller did win all the "educated" county in the State, it's just that they don't have that many votes.

The MS Gulf Coast is relatively educated and it delivered

I thought the Gulf Coast would be educated too, but it really isn't, at least according to the Census

Top counties with Bachelor Degree or higher

Madison 46.5
Oktibbeha 42.6
Lafayette 41.9
Lamar 35.9
Rankin 29.2
Hinds 28.6
Forrest 26.7

The GC ranged from 20.7 to 22.2

Why did Reeves do so well on the Coast?  Was he in tight with the Casinos?
 


Retirees and the AA pockets depress the gulf coast counties a significant amount.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #94 on: August 29, 2019, 01:38:05 PM »

Waller did win all the "educated" county in the State, it's just that they don't have that many votes.

The MS Gulf Coast is relatively educated and it delivered

I thought the Gulf Coast would be educated too, but it really isn't, at least according to the Census

Top counties with Bachelor Degree or higher

Madison 46.5
Oktibbeha 42.6
Lafayette 41.9
Lamar 35.9
Rankin 29.2
Hinds 28.6
Forrest 26.7

The GC ranged from 20.7 to 22.2

Why did Reeves do so well on the Coast?  Was he in tight with the Casinos?
 


Retirees and the AA pockets depress the gulf coast counties a significant amount.

Maybe retirees but the GC is generally whiter than most of the "educated counties"
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #95 on: August 29, 2019, 02:29:03 PM »

Waller did win all the "educated" county in the State, it's just that they don't have that many votes.

The MS Gulf Coast is relatively educated and it delivered
The AG race is close though

> Lynn Fitch 157,053 52%
 Andy Taggart 146,405 48%


This is actually surprising.  Looking at the county results seems to suggest there were a good number of Reeves/Taggart voters and Waller/Fitch voters in Metro Jackson and the Northeast, respectively.  I wonder what’s driving this dynamic.

I was definitely surprised by this too.

I'll just chalk it up to the AG's race being less defined by policy and more personality-driven.  Lynn Fitch would be more well known in the northern regions of the state, whereas Andy Taggert has been on TV in Metro Jackson for a long time.

This is a good point, especially about Taggart.

One thing that really stood out to me between the two runoffs was the difference between Reeves and Fitch in Marshall County, which is Fitch's home county as she's from Holly Springs. Reeves garnered 81% while Fitch just managed to get 54%. It's just quite strange to me.

I think TV is the culprit here.  Andy Taggert and Jere Nash regularly appear on WLBT for political commentary.  The counties Taggert won around Jackson almost perfectly correspond to WLBT's market area.

Also, while Fitch is nominally from Marshall County she's based her career and entire adult life in Metro Jackson.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #96 on: August 29, 2019, 02:33:55 PM »

Waller did win all the "educated" county in the State, it's just that they don't have that many votes.

The MS Gulf Coast is relatively educated and it delivered

I thought the Gulf Coast would be educated too, but it really isn't, at least according to the Census

Top counties with Bachelor Degree or higher

Madison 46.5
Oktibbeha 42.6
Lafayette 41.9
Lamar 35.9
Rankin 29.2
Hinds 28.6
Forrest 26.7

The GC ranged from 20.7 to 22.2

Why did Reeves do so well on the Coast?  Was he in tight with the Casinos?
 


Reeves was quite vocally supportive of the idea that BP disaster relief funds should have only been spent in the coastal counties, while a lot of other statewide officials wanted to use the windfall to support projects in other regions of the state.  Tate Reeves got a bill through the MS Legislature that earmarked 75% of the $750 million settlement for the six southernmost counties.

This of course endeared him to a lot of Gulf Coast businesses and residents, and it was probably a smart political calculation on his part considering how vote-heavy the Gulf Coast is in Republican nominating contests.
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gespb19
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« Reply #97 on: August 31, 2019, 01:39:14 AM »

Reeves was also endorsed by a ton of mayors on the Gulf Coast.

That area isn't as educated as you'd think. Same with DeSoto. Lot of OOS people there by Mississippi standards. Part of Waller's appeal is his family's history within the state. That isn't as big of a deal to people that aren't from here.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #98 on: September 03, 2019, 03:17:23 PM »

Some interesting notes on MS Senate District 5, where incumbent Demosaur J.P. Wilemon is retiring after 20 years representing this 78-20 Trump district.  All but confirmed bachelor and Oxford-based attorney Daniel Sparks won the GOP primary with 5,724 (53.1%) votes on August 6, while Democrat Steve Eaton ran unopposed.  Sparks' primary opponent was County Commissioner Patrick Eaton, so there's possibly going to be some name-confusion at-play in November along with traditional Democratic strength and rumors about Sparks' personal life.  Seeing this seat stay Dem in 2019 would be quite the sight.   

For illumination, this is the district where a private event hall recently refused to host an interracial marriage due to its "Christian beliefs"



Also, since the old thread is lost several pages back and this thread seems to have gotten more activity as of late, can we rename and make this the MS Gov Megathread?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #99 on: September 03, 2019, 10:44:44 PM »

Big? When JBE won, he got endorsements from the  other republicans in the primary. As close as you can get to that.

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