Make This 2020 Scenario Happen
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April 30, 2024, 07:30:33 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  Alternative Elections (Moderator: Dereich)
  Make This 2020 Scenario Happen
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Author Topic: Make This 2020 Scenario Happen  (Read 482 times)
libertpaulian
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,611
United States


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« on: August 17, 2019, 10:34:55 PM »

1. Trump is reelected.  He wins the EC and wins the PV by the narrowest of narrow margins.
2. A third-party run by Amash or Sanford (you can decide which one) makes a very strong showing.
3. Democrats manage to take back the Senate.

Discuss with maps and your story/summary.
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Grassroots
Grassr00ts
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 6,740
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 2.09

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« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2019, 02:02:16 AM »

This is impossible.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,617
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

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« Reply #2 on: August 19, 2019, 07:58:24 AM »

You do it
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libertpaulian
Junior Chimp
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United States


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« Reply #3 on: August 19, 2019, 10:16:29 AM »

It can happen if enough voters decide that Gardner and Tillis are too establishment, for example, and they leave those Senate spots blank.
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OBD
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,570
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26

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« Reply #4 on: August 19, 2019, 11:08:58 AM »


Donald Trump (R-NY) / Mike Pence (R-IN) 320 EVs 44.69%
Bernie Sanders (D-VT) deceased / Beto O'Rourke (D-TX) 218 EVs 44.59%
Justin Amash (I-MI) / Jesse Ventura (I-MN) ) 0 EVs 8.66%

Senate
R Pickups: AL
D Pickups: CO, AZ, ME, NC, GA
Senate Balance: 51-49 D

In this (admittedly unlikely) scenario, Bernie Sanders wins the Democratic nomination and takes a commanding lead over Donald Trump, but then unexpectedly dies from a heart attack and complications a week before election day. With Beto O'Rourke now effectively the candidate, several Sanders voters stay home, or defect to the Amash unity ticket (either because of confusion or believing O'Rourke to be too inexperienced to be President). Combined with Russian interference, this is enough to tip the election to Trump.

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