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August 23, 2019, 02:36:23 pm
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ElectionsGuy
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« on: August 08, 2019, 06:25:16 pm »
« edited: August 08, 2019, 06:45:52 pm by ElectionsGuy »

I wanted to experiment by devising a Senate that still has 100 seats but equally represents populations. This plan would allow as many Senators from each state as the percentage of the state's overall US population and would allow combinations of states. This is how it sets up. I would do this based on the projected 2020 populations. I'm going to follow up with a post on each state, how it voted in the past and predict a potential senate election based on the senate district.

California - 12
Texas + Louisiana - 10
Florida + Alabama - 8
New York - 6
Ohio + Kenucky - 5
Illinois - 4
Pennsylvania - 4
Washington + Oregon + Hawaii - 4
Georgia - 3
North Carolina - 3
Michigan - 3
New Jersey - 3
Virginia + West Virginia - 3
Arizona + New Mexico - 3
Massachusetts - 2
Tennessee - 2
Indiana - 2
Missouri - 2
Wisconsin - 2
Colorado - 2
Minnesota - 2
South Carolina - 2
Maryland + Delaware + DC - 2
Oklahoma - 1
Utah - 1
Iowa - 1
Nevada - 1
Arkansas - 1
Mississippi - 1
Kansas - 1
Connecticut + Rhode Island - 1
Nebraska + North Dakota + South Dakota + Wyoming - 1
Alaska + Idaho + Montana - 1
Maine + New Hampshire + Vermont - 1

This is by no means a professionally created scheme, just doing this for fun.

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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2019, 06:36:05 pm »
« Edited: August 09, 2019, 07:55:30 am by ElectionsGuy »

Arkansas

Population: 3,013,825

2012 President

Romney: 647,744 (60.6%)
Obama: 394,409 (36.9%)

2016 President

Trump: 684,872 (60.6%)
Clinton: 380,494 (33.7%)

2018 House

Republicans: 556,339 (62.6%)
Democrats: 312,978 (35.2%)

2020 Senate Election

Republican Primary

Tom Cotton (i): 53%
John Boozman (i): 35%
Others: 18%

General Election

Tom Cotton: 61%
Some Guy: 34%

Rating: Safe R
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2019, 06:44:05 pm »
« Edited: August 09, 2019, 07:55:54 am by ElectionsGuy »

Iowa

Population: 3,156,145

2012 President

Obama: 822,544 (52.0%)
Romney: 730,617 (46.2%)

2016 President

Trump: 800,983 (51.1%)
Clinton: 653,669 (41.7%)
 
2018 House

Democrats: 664,676 (50.5%)
Republicans: 612,338 (46.5%)

2020 Senate Election

Chuck Grassley retires, Joni Ernst wins Republican primary

General election

Joni Ernst: 54%
Theresa Greenfield: 44%

Rating: Likely R
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cvparty
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« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2019, 07:59:12 pm »

is every senator elected at large or are there districts like in state senates?
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #4 on: August 09, 2019, 03:18:15 am »

That's a great idea.

My back of the enveloppe estimation, using proportional allotment, yields 51-49 to the GOP.
Interestingly, the Senate is still a dead heat with this new mapping.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #5 on: August 09, 2019, 06:22:08 am »

is every senator elected at large or are there districts like in state senates?

There are districts among the areas that are allotted more than 1 senator. I just did Iowa and Arkansas so far which are exactly the same.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #6 on: August 09, 2019, 08:03:49 am »

Kansas

Population: 2,911,505

2012 President

Romney: 692,634 (59.7%)
Obama: 440,726 (38.0%)

2016 President

Trump: 671,018 (56.7%)
Clinton: 427,005 (36.1%)

2018 House

Republicans: 563,190 (53.6%)
Democrats: 464,380 (44.2%)

2020 Senate Election

Republican Primary

Jerry Moran (i): 52%
Kris Kobach: 30%
Others: 18%

General Election

Jerry Moran: 57%
Nancy Boyda: 39%

Rating: Safe R
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ElectionsGuy
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E: 5.42, S: -7.65

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« Reply #7 on: August 09, 2019, 08:10:03 am »

Mississippi

Population: 2,986,530

2012 President

Romney: 710,746 (55.3%)
Obama: 562,949 (43.8%)

2016 President

Trump: 700,714 (57.9%)
Clinton: 485,131 (40.1%)

2018 House

Republicans: 471,162 (50.2%)
Democrats: 398,770 (42.5%)

2020 Senate Election

Republican Primary

Roger Wicker (i): 59%
Cindy-Hyde Smith (i): 39%

General Election

Roger Wicker: 58%
Some Guy: 40%

Rating: Safe R
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: August 09, 2019, 08:17:04 am »

Nevada

Population: 3,034,392

2012 President

Obama: 531,373 (52.4%)
Romney: 463,567 (45.7%)

2016 President

Clinton: 539,260 (47.9%)
Trump: 512,058 (45.5%)

2018 House

Democrats: 491,272 (51.1%)
Republicans: 439,727 (45.8%)

2022 Senate Election

Democratic Primary

Catherine Cortez-Masto (i): 53%
Jacky Rosen (i): 47%

General Election

Catherine Cortez-Masto: 50%
Adam Laxalt: 46%

Rating: Lean D
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #9 on: August 09, 2019, 08:21:55 am »

Oklahoma

Population: 3,943,079

2012 President

Romney: 891,325 (66.8%)
Obama: 443,547 (33.2%)

2016 President

Trump: 949,136 (65.3%)
Clinton: 420,375 (28.9%)

2018 House

Republicans: 730,531 (62.0%)
Democrats: 428,452 (36.3%)

2020 Senate Election

Inhofe retires.

General Election

James Lankford: 67%
Some Guy: 31%

Rating: Safe R
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #10 on: August 09, 2019, 08:29:03 am »

Utah

Population: 3,161,105

2012 President

Romney: 740,600 (72.8%)
Obama: 251,813 (24.7%)

2016 President

Trump: 515,231 (45.5%)
Clinton: 310,676 (27.5%)
McMullin: 243,690 (21.5%)

2018 House

Republicans: 617,307 (58.7%)
Democrats: 374,009 (35.5%)

2022 Senate Election

Romney works out a deal with Lee, retires.

General Election

Mike Lee: 64%
Ben McAdams: 34%

Rating: Safe R
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #11 on: August 09, 2019, 08:41:40 am »
« Edited: August 09, 2019, 09:04:58 am by ElectionsGuy »

Connecticut



Population: 4,629,980

2012 President

Obama: 1,184,760 (59.1%)
Romney: 792,096 (39.5%)

2016 President

Clinton: 1,150,097 (54.5%)
Trump: 853,758 (40.5%)

2018 House

Democrats: 1,091,916 (62.3%)
Republicans: 650,359 (37.1%)

2022 Senate Election

Jack Reed retires.

Democratic Primary

Chris Murphy (i): 38%
Richard Blumenthal (i): 30%
Sheldon Whitehouse (i): 20%

General Election

Chris Murphy: 57%
Some Guy: 42%

Rating: Safe D
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #12 on: August 09, 2019, 08:59:23 am »
« Edited: August 09, 2019, 09:05:43 am by ElectionsGuy »

New Hampshire



Population: 3,321,161

2012 President

Obama: 970,106 (56.3%)
Romney: 714,892 (41.5%)

2016 President

Clinton: 884,834 (49.0%)
Trump: 776,752 (43.0%)

2018 House

Democrats: 842,451 (57.5%)
Republicans: 570,509 (38.9%)

2020 Senate Election

Leahy and King retire.

Democratic Primary

Bernie Sanders (i): 37%
Jeane Shaheen (i): 34%
Maggie Hassan (i): 26%

Republican Primary

Susan Collins (i): 55%
Chris Sununu: 43%

General Election

Bernie Sanders: 51%
Susan Collins: 47%

Rating: Likely D
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shua
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« Reply #13 on: August 09, 2019, 03:04:59 pm »

Why combine FL & AL, TX & LA, etc?
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cvparty
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« Reply #14 on: August 09, 2019, 09:57:51 pm »

probably to achieve population equality among districts
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #15 on: August 12, 2019, 02:24:45 pm »

Are you not continuing, @ElectionsGuy?

This thread is intriguing.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #16 on: August 12, 2019, 07:09:34 pm »

I wanted to experiment by devising a Senate that still has 100 seats but equally represents populations. This plan would allow as many Senators from each state as the percentage of the state's overall US population and would allow combinations of states. This is how it sets up. I would do this based on the projected 2020 populations. I'm going to follow up with a post on each state, how it voted in the past and predict a potential senate election based on the senate district.

California - 12
Texas + Louisiana - 10
Florida + Alabama - 8
New York - 6
Ohio + Kenucky - 5
Illinois - 4
Pennsylvania - 4
Washington + Oregon + Hawaii - 4
Georgia - 3
North Carolina - 3
Michigan - 3
New Jersey - 3
Virginia + West Virginia - 3
Arizona + New Mexico - 3
Massachusetts - 2
Tennessee - 2
Indiana - 2
Missouri - 2
Wisconsin - 2
Colorado - 2
Minnesota - 2
South Carolina - 2
Maryland + Delaware + DC - 2
Oklahoma - 1
Utah - 1
Iowa - 1
Nevada - 1
Arkansas - 1
Mississippi - 1
Kansas - 1
Connecticut + Rhode Island - 1
Nebraska + North Dakota + South Dakota + Wyoming - 1
Alaska + Idaho + Montana - 1
Maine + New Hampshire + Vermont - 1

This is by no means a professionally created scheme, just doing this for fun.



While I was doing my North Dakota legislative history, I had figured out a comparable congressional redistricting.

Under the (original) North Dakota constitution, it was invalid to attach part of a county to another county (whole or part of). This resulted in three types of senate districts:

(a) Part of a large county (must be whole number of districts in county).
(b) A single whole county.
(c) Two or more contiguous whole counties.

Representatives were apportioned to the senate districts and elected at large.

The number of senators in North Dakota was similar to the number of counties (49 districts vs. 53 counties) so that in a largely rural North Dakota a whole-county senate district was normative.

To give a comparable model for my Congress, there are 50 senators and 150 representatives.


1CT, ME. NH, RI, VT13
2MA13
3,4,5NY39
6,7NJ24
8,9PA26
10MD, DE, DC13
11VA13
12,13NC24
14SC12
15,16GA24
17,18,19FL39
20AL12
21TN13
22KY, WV13
23IN13
24,25OH25
26,27MI24
28WI12
29,30IL26
31MO12
32MS, AR12
33LA12
34,35,36,37TX412
38OK, KS13
39IA, NE, MT, WY13
40MN, SD, ND13
41CO, NM13
42AZ13
43UT, NV, ID13
44WA13
45OR, HI, AK12
46,47,48,49,50CA518
If you read the text of the constitution, it says contiguous, if practicable; then affinity. Thus the New England district that skips Massachusetts is constitutional as in the Pacific district of Oregon, Hawaii, and Alaska.
On a raw basis, California would be entitled to 6 districts, but I didn't find a way to draw other districts and produce 50 total. The goal was to have all districts between 2/3 and 4/3.
Overall the relative standard deviation is 15.13%.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #17 on: August 13, 2019, 12:54:10 pm »

Are you not continuing, @ElectionsGuy?

This thread is intriguing.

No, I will continue, but right now I'm drawing all the districts in DRA 2020. I got a final in two days too so I might not post in this thread again until next week.
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Storr
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« Reply #18 on: August 13, 2019, 04:08:29 pm »

A few nights ago I was trying to think of a change in the Senate that smaller states might be okay or even supportive of. What came to mind was giving the largest states an additional Senate seat. In this system small states still have much more power/influence/representation in the Senate than in the House, but large states would have representation more fitting their large populations than they previously had in the Senate. Of course representation would still be very skewed (only 3 Senators for the 40 million people in California for example), but I was trying to think of an idea that doesn't completely revamp the current Senate setup. This would also keep the class (I,II, and III) system in the Senate intact with the new seats put in the class each large state currently doesn't have a Senator in. What I haven't decided on is what the 'cutoff' for a third seat would be. >3.00% of the total US population would result in 10 new Senate seats. >10 million people would result in 9 new seats (with Michigan currently 5,000 people away from 10M as of 2018, it should reach it in the near future, leading to 10 new seats). >20 million people would result in 3 new seats (New York being at 19.5M, so it may reach 20M at some point). I personally don't like the idea of simply having a Top 10,15, etc. But, that could definitely work as well.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #19 on: August 14, 2019, 02:04:43 pm »

I just finished my district planning for every area. I did deviations of no more than 5% of district populations and kept counties whole whenever possible. I tried to keep whole metropolitan areas intact within states but sometimes it was a challenge, such as with Tennessee, but still, I think most of these look pretty good and I was really surprised that I didn't have to split that many counties. Right now, I'm a little unhappy with how the D/FW area turned out so I may change that up but otherwise it's pretty much finalized.



Grey = split county
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rpryor03
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« Reply #20 on: August 16, 2019, 09:01:11 pm »

Great thought experiment, EG!
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #21 on: August 22, 2019, 09:50:06 am »

Nebraska



Population: 4,149,317

2012 President

Romney: 1,044,799 (60.4%)
Obama: 641,233 (37.1%)

2016 President

Trump: 1,114,895 (61.4%)
Clinton: 551,683 (30.4%)

2018 House

Republicans: 956,303 (61.5%)
Democrats: 559,806 (36.0%)

2020 Senate Election

Republican Primary

Ben Sasse (i): 29%
John Thune (i): 25%
Kevin Cramer (i): 18%
John Barasso (i): 15%

General Election

Ben Sasse: 64%
Kara Eastman: 33%

Rating: Safe R
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ElectionsGuy
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E: 5.42, S: -7.65

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« Reply #22 on: August 22, 2019, 10:09:31 am »

Idaho

 



Population: 3,553,951

2012 President

Romney: 853,515 (59.4%)
Obama: 537,266 (37.4%)

2016 President

Trump: 851,682 (56.6%)
Clinton: 483,928 (32.1%)

2018 House

Republicans: 774,433 (56.0%)
Democrats: 571,786 (41.4%)

2020 Senate Election

Republican Primary

Steve Daines (i): 35%
Mike Crapo (i): 30%
Dan Sullivan (i): 19%

General Election

Steve Daines: 59%
Mike Cooney: 39%

Rating: Safe R
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ElectionsGuy
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E: 5.42, S: -7.65

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« Reply #23 on: August 22, 2019, 10:32:30 am »
« Edited: August 22, 2019, 11:01:35 am by ElectionsGuy »

South Carolina



SC S01

Population (2016 est.): 2,428,963

2016 President

Trump: 604,081 (57.7%)
Clinton: 392,655 (37.5%)

2020 Senate Election

Lindsey Graham: 59%
Democratic candidate: 39%

12/16 PVI: R+11

Rating: Safe R

SC S02

Population (2016 est.): 2,405,642

2016 President

Trump: 551,308 (52.2%)
Clinton: 462,718 (43.8%)

2022 Senate Election

Tim Scott: 55%
Joe Cunningham: 44%

12/16 PVI: R+5

Rating: Likely R
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #24 on: August 22, 2019, 10:59:24 am »

Minnesota



MN S01

Population (2016 est.): 2,742,189

2016 President

Clinton: 860,095 (56.8%)
Trump: 520,014 (34.3%)

2024 Senate Election

Klobuchar: 67%
Someone: 30%

12/16 PVI: D+9

Rating: Safe D

MN S02

Population (2016 est.): 2,708,679

2016 President

Trump: 802,937 (55.2%)
Clinton: 507,621 (34.9%)

2020 Senate Election

Pete Stauber: 57%
Dan Feehan: 41%

12/16 PVI: R+8

Rating: Safe R
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