A More Equal Senate (user search)
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Author Topic: A More Equal Senate  (Read 1653 times)
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« on: August 08, 2019, 06:25:16 PM »
« edited: August 08, 2019, 06:45:52 PM by ElectionsGuy »
I wanted to experiment by devising a Senate that still has 100 seats but equally represents populations. This plan would allow as many Senators from each state as the percentage of the state's overall US population and would allow combinations of states. This is how it sets up. I would do this based on the projected 2020 populations. I'm going to follow up with a post on each state, how it voted in the past and predict a potential senate election based on the senate district.

California - 12
Texas + Louisiana - 10
Florida + Alabama - 8
New York - 6
Ohio + Kenucky - 5
Illinois - 4
Pennsylvania - 4
Washington + Oregon + Hawaii - 4
Georgia - 3
North Carolina - 3
Michigan - 3
New Jersey - 3
Virginia + West Virginia - 3
Arizona + New Mexico - 3
Massachusetts - 2
Tennessee - 2
Indiana - 2
Missouri - 2
Wisconsin - 2
Colorado - 2
Minnesota - 2
South Carolina - 2
Maryland + Delaware + DC - 2
Oklahoma - 1
Utah - 1
Iowa - 1
Nevada - 1
Arkansas - 1
Mississippi - 1
Kansas - 1
Connecticut + Rhode Island - 1
Nebraska + North Dakota + South Dakota + Wyoming - 1
Alaska + Idaho + Montana - 1
Maine + New Hampshire + Vermont - 1

This is by no means a professionally created scheme, just doing this for fun.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2019, 06:36:05 PM »
« Edited: August 09, 2019, 07:55:30 AM by ElectionsGuy »
Arkansas

Population: 3,013,825

2012 President

Romney: 647,744 (60.6%)
Obama: 394,409 (36.9%)

2016 President

Trump: 684,872 (60.6%)
Clinton: 380,494 (33.7%)

2018 House

Republicans: 556,339 (62.6%)
Democrats: 312,978 (35.2%)

2020 Senate Election

Republican Primary

Tom Cotton (i): 53%
John Boozman (i): 35%
Others: 18%

General Election

Tom Cotton: 61%
Some Guy: 34%

Rating: Safe R
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2019, 06:44:05 PM »
« Edited: August 09, 2019, 07:55:54 AM by ElectionsGuy »
Iowa

Population: 3,156,145

2012 President

Obama: 822,544 (52.0%)
Romney: 730,617 (46.2%)

2016 President

Trump: 800,983 (51.1%)
Clinton: 653,669 (41.7%)
 
2018 House

Democrats: 664,676 (50.5%)
Republicans: 612,338 (46.5%)

2020 Senate Election

Chuck Grassley retires, Joni Ernst wins Republican primary

General election

Joni Ernst: 54%
Theresa Greenfield: 44%

Rating: Likely R
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #3 on: August 09, 2019, 06:22:08 AM »
Quote from: cvparty on August 08, 2019, 07:59:12 PM
is every senator elected at large or are there districts like in state senates?

There are districts among the areas that are allotted more than 1 senator. I just did Iowa and Arkansas so far which are exactly the same.
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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #4 on: August 09, 2019, 08:03:49 AM »
Kansas

Population: 2,911,505

2012 President

Romney: 692,634 (59.7%)
Obama: 440,726 (38.0%)

2016 President

Trump: 671,018 (56.7%)
Clinton: 427,005 (36.1%)

2018 House

Republicans: 563,190 (53.6%)
Democrats: 464,380 (44.2%)

2020 Senate Election

Republican Primary

Jerry Moran (i): 52%
Kris Kobach: 30%
Others: 18%

General Election

Jerry Moran: 57%
Nancy Boyda: 39%

Rating: Safe R
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #5 on: August 09, 2019, 08:10:03 AM »
Mississippi

Population: 2,986,530

2012 President

Romney: 710,746 (55.3%)
Obama: 562,949 (43.8%)

2016 President

Trump: 700,714 (57.9%)
Clinton: 485,131 (40.1%)

2018 House

Republicans: 471,162 (50.2%)
Democrats: 398,770 (42.5%)

2020 Senate Election

Republican Primary

Roger Wicker (i): 59%
Cindy-Hyde Smith (i): 39%

General Election

Roger Wicker: 58%
Some Guy: 40%

Rating: Safe R
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #6 on: August 09, 2019, 08:17:04 AM »
Nevada

Population: 3,034,392

2012 President

Obama: 531,373 (52.4%)
Romney: 463,567 (45.7%)

2016 President

Clinton: 539,260 (47.9%)
Trump: 512,058 (45.5%)

2018 House

Democrats: 491,272 (51.1%)
Republicans: 439,727 (45.8%)

2022 Senate Election

Democratic Primary

Catherine Cortez-Masto (i): 53%
Jacky Rosen (i): 47%

General Election

Catherine Cortez-Masto: 50%
Adam Laxalt: 46%

Rating: Lean D
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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #7 on: August 09, 2019, 08:21:55 AM »
Oklahoma

Population: 3,943,079

2012 President

Romney: 891,325 (66.8%)
Obama: 443,547 (33.2%)

2016 President

Trump: 949,136 (65.3%)
Clinton: 420,375 (28.9%)

2018 House

Republicans: 730,531 (62.0%)
Democrats: 428,452 (36.3%)

2020 Senate Election

Inhofe retires.

General Election

James Lankford: 67%
Some Guy: 31%

Rating: Safe R
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #8 on: August 09, 2019, 08:29:03 AM »
Utah

Population: 3,161,105

2012 President

Romney: 740,600 (72.8%)
Obama: 251,813 (24.7%)

2016 President

Trump: 515,231 (45.5%)
Clinton: 310,676 (27.5%)
McMullin: 243,690 (21.5%)

2018 House

Republicans: 617,307 (58.7%)
Democrats: 374,009 (35.5%)

2022 Senate Election

Romney works out a deal with Lee, retires.

General Election

Mike Lee: 64%
Ben McAdams: 34%

Rating: Safe R
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #9 on: August 09, 2019, 08:41:40 AM »
« Edited: August 09, 2019, 09:04:58 AM by ElectionsGuy »
Connecticut



Population: 4,629,980

2012 President

Obama: 1,184,760 (59.1%)
Romney: 792,096 (39.5%)

2016 President

Clinton: 1,150,097 (54.5%)
Trump: 853,758 (40.5%)

2018 House

Democrats: 1,091,916 (62.3%)
Republicans: 650,359 (37.1%)

2022 Senate Election

Jack Reed retires.

Democratic Primary

Chris Murphy (i): 38%
Richard Blumenthal (i): 30%
Sheldon Whitehouse (i): 20%

General Election

Chris Murphy: 57%
Some Guy: 42%

Rating: Safe D
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #10 on: August 09, 2019, 08:59:23 AM »
« Edited: August 09, 2019, 09:05:43 AM by ElectionsGuy »
New Hampshire



Population: 3,321,161

2012 President

Obama: 970,106 (56.3%)
Romney: 714,892 (41.5%)

2016 President

Clinton: 884,834 (49.0%)
Trump: 776,752 (43.0%)

2018 House

Democrats: 842,451 (57.5%)
Republicans: 570,509 (38.9%)

2020 Senate Election

Leahy and King retire.

Democratic Primary

Bernie Sanders (i): 37%
Jeane Shaheen (i): 34%
Maggie Hassan (i): 26%

Republican Primary

Susan Collins (i): 55%
Chris Sununu: 43%

General Election

Bernie Sanders: 51%
Susan Collins: 47%

Rating: Likely D
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #11 on: August 13, 2019, 12:54:10 PM »
Quote from: Epaminondas on August 12, 2019, 02:24:45 PM
Are you not continuing, @ElectionsGuy?

This thread is intriguing.

No, I will continue, but right now I'm drawing all the districts in DRA 2020. I got a final in two days too so I might not post in this thread again until next week.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #12 on: August 14, 2019, 02:04:43 PM »
I just finished my district planning for every area. I did deviations of no more than 5% of district populations and kept counties whole whenever possible. I tried to keep whole metropolitan areas intact within states but sometimes it was a challenge, such as with Tennessee, but still, I think most of these look pretty good and I was really surprised that I didn't have to split that many counties. Right now, I'm a little unhappy with how the D/FW area turned out so I may change that up but otherwise it's pretty much finalized.



Grey = split county
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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #13 on: August 22, 2019, 09:50:06 AM »
Nebraska



Population: 4,149,317

2012 President

Romney: 1,044,799 (60.4%)
Obama: 641,233 (37.1%)

2016 President

Trump: 1,114,895 (61.4%)
Clinton: 551,683 (30.4%)

2018 House

Republicans: 956,303 (61.5%)
Democrats: 559,806 (36.0%)

2020 Senate Election

Republican Primary

Ben Sasse (i): 29%
John Thune (i): 25%
Kevin Cramer (i): 18%
John Barasso (i): 15%

General Election

Ben Sasse: 64%
Kara Eastman: 33%

Rating: Safe R
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #14 on: August 22, 2019, 10:09:31 AM »
Idaho

 



Population: 3,553,951

2012 President

Romney: 853,515 (59.4%)
Obama: 537,266 (37.4%)

2016 President

Trump: 851,682 (56.6%)
Clinton: 483,928 (32.1%)

2018 House

Republicans: 774,433 (56.0%)
Democrats: 571,786 (41.4%)

2020 Senate Election

Republican Primary

Steve Daines (i): 35%
Mike Crapo (i): 30%
Dan Sullivan (i): 19%

General Election

Steve Daines: 59%
Mike Cooney: 39%

Rating: Safe R
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #15 on: August 22, 2019, 10:32:30 AM »
« Edited: August 22, 2019, 11:01:35 AM by ElectionsGuy »
South Carolina



SC S01

Population (2016 est.): 2,428,963

2016 President

Trump: 604,081 (57.7%)
Clinton: 392,655 (37.5%)

2020 Senate Election

Lindsey Graham: 59%
Democratic candidate: 39%

12/16 PVI: R+11

Rating: Safe R

SC S02

Population (2016 est.): 2,405,642

2016 President

Trump: 551,308 (52.2%)
Clinton: 462,718 (43.8%)

2022 Senate Election

Tim Scott: 55%
Joe Cunningham: 44%

12/16 PVI: R+5

Rating: Likely R
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #16 on: August 22, 2019, 10:59:24 AM »
Minnesota



MN S01

Population (2016 est.): 2,742,189

2016 President

Clinton: 860,095 (56.8%)
Trump: 520,014 (34.3%)

2024 Senate Election

Klobuchar: 67%
Someone: 30%

12/16 PVI: D+9

Rating: Safe D

MN S02

Population (2016 est.): 2,708,679

2016 President

Trump: 802,937 (55.2%)
Clinton: 507,621 (34.9%)

2020 Senate Election

Pete Stauber: 57%
Dan Feehan: 41%

12/16 PVI: R+8

Rating: Safe R
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #17 on: August 22, 2019, 11:19:46 AM »
Colorado



CO S01

Population (2016 est.): 2,696,445

2016 President

Clinton: 750,159 (54.3%)
Trump: 514,842 (37.2%)

2022 Senate Election

Michael Bennet: 59%
Someone: 38%

12/16 PVI: D+7

Rating: Safe D

CO S02

Population (2016 est.): 2,662,850

2016 President

Trump: 687,540 (49.2%)
Clinton: 588,711 (42.1%)

2020 Senate Election

Cory Gardner: 53%
Joe Neguse: 44%

12/16 PVI: R+4

Rating: Likely R
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #18 on: August 22, 2019, 11:35:34 AM »
Wisconsin



WI S01

Population (2016 est.): 2,862,279

2016 President

Trump: 696,844 (47.9%)
Clinton: 666,263 (45.8%)

2022 Senate Election

Scott Walker: 52%
Chris Larson: 46%

12/16 PVI: R+2

Rating: Lean R

WI S02

Population (2016 est.): 2,892,519

2016 President

Clinton: 714,015 (47.1%)
Trump: 706,164 (46.5%)

2024 Senate Election

Tammy Baldwin: 53%
Sean Duffy: 46%

12/16 PVI: D+2

Rating: Lean D
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #19 on: August 26, 2019, 07:25:42 PM »
Missouri



MO S01

Population (2016 est.): 3,024,371

2016 President

Trump: 765,012 (53.7%)
Clinton: 593,805 (41.6%)

2022 Senate Election

Ann Wagner: 54%
Nicole Galloway: 45%

12/16 PVI: R+5

Rating: Safe R

MO S02

Population (2016 est.): 3,035,280

2016 President

Trump: 829,499 (59.1%)
Clinton: 477,263 (34.0%)

2024 Senate Election

Josh Hawley: 60%
Chris Koster: 36%

12/16 PVI: R+13

Rating: Safe R
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #20 on: August 26, 2019, 07:40:37 PM »
Tennessee



TN S01

Population (2016 est.): 3,263,137

2016 President

Trump: 640,175 (51.3%)
Clinton: 550,933 (44.1%)

2024 Senate Election

Marsha Blackburn: 50%
Phil Bredesen: 46%

12/16 PVI: R+4

Rating: Likely R

TN S02

Population (2016 est.): 3,284,872

2016 President

Trump: 882,704 (70.1%)
Clinton: 319,743 (25.4%)

2020 Senate Election

Tim Burchett: 72%
No name: 25%

12/16 PVI: R+23

Rating: Titanium R
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #21 on: August 26, 2019, 08:06:39 PM »
Massachusetts





MA S01

Population (2016 est.): 3,373,507

2016 President

Clinton: 953,523 (57.0%)
Trump: 589,814 (35.3%)

2024 Senate Election

Seth Moulton: 58%
Republican: 40%

12/16 PVI: D+9

Rating: Safe D

MA S02

Population (2016 est.): 3,368,636

2016 President

Clinton: 1,041,673 (63.1%)
Trump: 501,079 (30.3%)

2020 Senate Election

Democratic Primary

Joe Kennedy: 49%
Ed Markey (i): 45%

General Election

Joe Kennedy: 65%
Geoff Diehl: 33%

12/16 PVI: D+14

Rating: Safe D
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