UK Future

[American2020]

Independence for Scotland is inevitable – we need a plan for it


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/09/independence-scotland-inevitable-scot-nicola-sturgeon

Boris Johnson could be the last prime minister of the United Kingdom

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/03/uk/boris-johnson-end-of-the-union-analysis-intl-gbr/index.html

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Scotland is more likely to reach independence that not but there certainly is no guarantee that the SNP won't blow it a la Quebec.

The central issue surrounding independence - that of the Scottish currency - has not gone away. Worse, what was once the SNP's big card - "it's Scotland's oil", is not fraught with issues as to its long-term viability. The issue is, although they may not like to admit it, a lot of the problems behind Brexit show up in Scottish independence - it's potentially jeopardizing material and tangible political goals for the sake of flags.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Elizabeth will probably die before any breakup can be finalized.

A very interesting question is whether Scotland (and current commonwealth realms) would continue to have the English monarch as their head of state or disregard the idea.

[CumbrianLefty]

Simon Jenkins is never a very reliable pointer on anything tbf.

[DaWN]

What gives me pause when it comes to the arguments of the 'Independent Scotland is inevitable!' types (who usually aren't too dissimilar from the 'PM Corbyn is inevitable!' types but I digress) is what happened in 2014 (or at least as I remember it).

In 2014, the incumbent government was about as popular as cholera in Scotland, and all three major party leaders were pretty hated. The economic consequences of austerity were hitting hard and more and more Scotland was being felt as distant from the UK. The SNP ran a very good campaign with a obviously faux and non-genuine, but still effective message along the lines of hope/change bullsh**t that always plays very well. The grassroots momentum was behind Yes, while No ran an appalling campaign with Cameron, Milliband and Clegg centre stage, three men who, as I mentioned, were exceptionally unpopular north of the border. No ran a weak lifeless campaign and Yes was seen as the fresh, bold choice.

But No won. And it wasn't particularly close.

Obviously circumstances have changed somewhat with Brexit and I have little doubt that Johnson and Corbyn's ratings in Scotland make Cameron and Milliband's look high, but I just don't think the fundamentals that doomed Yes in 2014 have changed enough. They may well have done, any second referendum would be far from a done deal of course, but that's all compounded by the fact I doubt that a No campaign would make the same mistakes as the last one. David Cameron won't be the face of the campaign this time.

So I don't think it'll happen any point in the short-medium term. And eventually Brexit will disappear as an issue (hopefully) and its impossible to tell what political conditions will exist and how that will affect Scotland.

Until the other day I'd have said its a pointless discussion because the UK government wouldn't allow a second referendum, but obviously Corbyn & Co have decided that they haven't been awful enough and they need to add 'want to break up the UK' to their resume, and unfortunately, there remains a non-zero chance of Grandad Useless entering number 10. So it is now a strong possibility it happens, but I'm sceptical that it'll be all that easy for the SNP to pull off. But then again, they have the political talent to con hundreds of thousands of people into thinking they're a left of centre party when they clearly are not, so who knows?

[beesley]

I believe there will be an independent Scotland one day. However, the alarmist 'it's going to happen now bc of Brexit etc.' is nothing compared to the long-term issues. Plus I think someone could make the case that Scotland would have a very hard time rejoining the EU.

[Blair]

A few rambling thoughts.

Scottish Independence requires two major changes to even get off the ground; at least 300 Labour MPs in Parliament, and a resolution to the current brexit impasse which leads to a no-deal Brexit.

And iirc a no deal Brexit means that Scotland reverts to becoming a third country (and has to go through the usual hurdles to get EU membership)

Besides; I feel people have been saying 'Scotland will go eventually' ever since 2014 as it's a revelation; once you get 45% of the Vote and 98% of the MPs it's pretty much a reality that the key theme of your existence will keep going.

Of course it's forgotten that 2017 saw the SNP punished historically for their support for independence; and I reckon there tendency to become vocally pro-EU.

I can't remember the figure but a good chunk of people voted Yes- SNP in '15- Leave in '16- and they'll be a big obstacle if indy-ref 2 becomes 'no to UK, Yes to Europe'.

and for god sake- look at Brexit. It has taken us 3 years to dissolve a 40 year trading & social union (without a future relationship)- it will take much longer to dissolve a 300 year fiscal & political & social union.

[urutzizu]

and for god sake- look at Brexit. It has taken us 3 years to dissolve a 40 year trading & social union (without a future relationship)- it will take much longer to dissolve a 300 year fiscal & political & social union.

This makes me think: the SNP going all-out to support a second referendum creates a very dangerous precedent for them. If they do succeed, and the first referendum is overturned, then what would stop unionists from campaigning to overturn a yes vote after  a Independence referendum? A Independence vote would certainly cause the Scottish economy to go south, at least temporarily, like the Brexit vote did, there would certainly be some buyers remorse, and the SNP would hardly be able to argue that referendum results have to be respected.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

A few rambling thoughts.

Scottish Independence requires two major changes to even get off the ground; at least 300 Labour MPs in Parliament, and a resolution to the current brexit impasse which leads to a no-deal Brexit.

And iirc a no deal Brexit means that Scotland reverts to becoming a third country (and has to go through the usual hurdles to get EU membership)

Besides; I feel people have been saying 'Scotland will go eventually' ever since 2014 as it's a revelation; once you get 45% of the Vote and 98% of the MPs it's pretty much a reality that the key theme of your existence will keep going.

Of course it's forgotten that 2017 saw the SNP punished historically for their support for independence; and I reckon there tendency to become vocally pro-EU.

I can't remember the figure but a good chunk of people voted Yes- SNP in '15- Leave in '16- and they'll be a big obstacle if indy-ref 2 becomes 'no to UK, Yes to Europe'.

and for god sake- look at Brexit. It has taken us 3 years to dissolve a 40 year trading & social union (without a future relationship)- it will take much longer to dissolve a 300 year fiscal & political & social union.

Curious to see those crosstabs. What percent of Scotts are No/Remain, Yes/Remain, No/Leave, and Yes/Leave?

[Blair]

I saw 30% of 2015 SNP voters backed leave; which tabs in well for the seats that the Scottish Tories won on the East Coast?

and for god sake- look at Brexit. It has taken us 3 years to dissolve a 40 year trading & social union (without a future relationship)- it will take much longer to dissolve a 300 year fiscal & political & social union.

This makes me think: the SNP going all-out to support a second referendum creates a very dangerous precedent for them. If they do succeed, and the first referendum is overturned, then what would stop unionists from campaigning to overturn a yes vote after  a Independence referendum? A Independence vote would certainly cause the Scottish economy to go south, at least temporarily, like the Brexit vote did, there would certainly be some buyers remorse, and the SNP would hardly be able to argue that referendum results have to be respected.

The fact that there's no unionist voice would make it much harder- indeed a great deal of the problem is that besides the 2017 election result, we don't hear or see a streamlined case for unionism because it's supporters are either talking about Scottish Labour woes, Brexit or Fishing rights.

Besides most people knew that the 2014 referendum was part of the SNP's trajectory rather than the end of it; so it was hardly going to end after 2014.

[beesley]

I saw 30% of 2015 SNP voters backed leave; which tabs in well for the seats that the Scottish Tories won on the East Coast?

Well the estimates suggest that the two seats Leave won were Banff and Buchan by 15-20pts (high fishing community) and Caithness S&ER by 2-3pts. So Banff may have a considerably lower swing - bear in mind last time it was the seat to change hands with the largest majority overturned, which will amount to something on the other measures.

[Proto]

The UK has bright future, nothing to worry about.

[Person Man]

The UK has bright future, nothing to worry about.

Famous last words but maybe the current challenges will ultimately prove to be inconsequential.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its.......always possible the previous poster wasn't being 100% serious?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The UK has bright future, nothing to worry about.

Since at some point Boris will no longer be PM, the future of the UK will of course be brighter than today. The question is, how much darkness will the UK suffer before that happens?