Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)
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Poll
Question: Which party would you vote for in the Parliamentary election?
#1
PNL
#2
PSD
#3
USR
#4
PRO-ALDE
#5
PMP
#6
UDMR
#7
AUR
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Partisan results


Author Topic: Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)  (Read 75178 times)
mgop
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« Reply #100 on: November 16, 2019, 01:01:38 PM »

iohannis will easily win. it's 66% - 34% in only poll so far for second round.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #101 on: November 17, 2019, 06:37:28 AM »

iohannis will easily win. it's 66% - 34% in only poll so far for second round.
I agree that there is no way he could lose, but such a landslide is unrealistic in my opinion given the debate debacle. 60-40 is probably closer to the truth.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #102 on: November 17, 2019, 06:40:21 AM »

Also the bets seem to lean towards a huge Iohannis win, giving him 1.05 while Dancila has 8.75. However, in 2014 Iohannis had 5.5 and his opponent, Victor Ponta had 1.1, so they are not that reliable
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RGM2609
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« Reply #103 on: November 23, 2019, 04:25:56 AM »

Tomorrow the second round is coming and for the first time since I got the right to vote, I don't think I am going to the polls. The turnout from abroad also doesn't seem to be that great, althrough it is still early, and it could point out to a larger trend amongst the Romanian college graduates and urban residents.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #104 on: November 23, 2019, 05:09:02 AM »

Tomorrow the second round is coming and for the first time since I got the right to vote, I don't think I am going to the polls. The turnout from abroad also doesn't seem to be that great, althrough it is still early, and it could point out to a larger trend amongst the Romanian college graduates and urban residents.
Edit: The trend I mentioned on the abroad vote seems to be changeing
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #105 on: November 23, 2019, 05:52:33 AM »

Tomorrow the second round is coming and for the first time since I got the right to vote, I don't think I am going to the polls. The turnout from abroad also doesn't seem to be that great, althrough it is still early, and it could point out to a larger trend amongst the Romanian college graduates and urban residents.

Why do you plan on NOT voting?
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RGM2609
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« Reply #106 on: November 23, 2019, 06:04:18 AM »

Tomorrow the second round is coming and for the first time since I got the right to vote, I don't think I am going to the polls. The turnout from abroad also doesn't seem to be that great, althrough it is still early, and it could point out to a larger trend amongst the Romanian college graduates and urban residents.

Why do you plan on NOT voting?
If the thing was closer, I would probably go just to prevent PSD from winning again but seeing that the outcome is already decided I do not plan to give my vote to a candidate who has consistently taken it for granted. I also feel bad about not voting just because it's a right of mine which should be used so I guess I am not yet decided about what to do. All I can say for sure is that I regret my vote from the first round.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #107 on: November 24, 2019, 02:02:36 AM »

My guess:

59.4% Johannis
40.6% Dancila

Turnout: 52%
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RGM2609
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« Reply #108 on: November 24, 2019, 08:12:46 AM »

My guess:

59.4% Johannis
40.6% Dancila

Turnout: 52%
That seems about right to me
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RGM2609
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« Reply #109 on: November 24, 2019, 12:30:32 PM »

I voted, althrough with no enthusiasm. Polls to close in 1 hour and a half. Leaked exit polls seem to show an bigger than expected victory for Iohannis, however they are not the most reliable source of information
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Keep Calm and ...
OldEurope
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« Reply #110 on: November 24, 2019, 02:10:06 PM »

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RGM2609
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« Reply #111 on: November 24, 2019, 02:17:43 PM »

According to Sociopol, IRES and Avangarde - 67% voted for Iohannis and 33% for Dancila. Wow. This might be the biggest second round victory in Romanian history
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RGM2609
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« Reply #112 on: November 25, 2019, 06:28:45 AM »

With 98% of the votes counted, 66% voted for Iohannis and 34% for Dancila. Dancila only won 5 counties out of 41, losing a lot of safe PSD and PSD-leaning areas, like my own county, where her defeat was a shock to me.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #113 on: November 26, 2019, 10:26:43 AM »

Dancila seems poised to leave the PSD Chairmanship, either willingly or forced out. 3 people are conspiring to take over the party: Speaker Marcel Ciolacu, Bucharest Mayor Gabriela Firea and Dancila's campaign chair Lia Olguta Vasilescu.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #114 on: November 28, 2019, 07:19:39 AM »

Dancila resigned
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RGM2609
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« Reply #115 on: January 03, 2020, 05:51:16 PM »

We are now a few months into the PNL government and I must say that it is disappointing even to me, who I didn't have any expectations from it in the first place. The question now is if PSD is so damaged that not even this can help it recover
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Beagle
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« Reply #116 on: February 07, 2020, 07:29:55 AM »

Plus ça change etc., Romania is in a really bad place politically right now. To wit:

PNL proposed sweeping changes in the electoral law (making mayoral elections 2-round; allowing 3 days of voting for Romanians abroad; allowing people to vote in any precinct in the country, not only in those where they are registered), which triggered a no-confidence motion. This was easily carried with PSD+UDMR+Pro Romania support (Ponta's heel-face turn didn't last long), so Orban's government is now caretaker.

However, opinion polls show a forthcoming landslide win for the PNL, with all other parliamentary parties, including Orban's erstwhile allies USR-PLUS, are heading for a drubbing at best, electoral oblivion at worst. So while PNL, Iohannis and, imo, most Romanian citizens want snap elections, the parties in parliament are absolutely opposed.

Early elections will be triggered if and when the parliament rejects two Iohannis nominees for PM. Predictably, Iohannis nominated Orban as his first nominee. It is certain that, if it comes to it, the second nominee will be equally unpalatable to the current parliamentary majority. So currently the PSD plan is to boycott the sitting in which the Orban nomination will be voted on and maintain the absence of a quorum until... I'm not sure what happens, exactly. This will paralyze Romanian government system for the foreseeable future, since the caretaker Orban government is limited in the scope of ordinances they can pass.
 



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RGM2609
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« Reply #117 on: March 23, 2020, 05:19:41 PM »

Alright so for the past few months I did not post on this thread because my general lack of free time did not allow me to keep a close eye on Romanian politics, however I am now able and willing to re-start updating this on a regular basis, if anyone is interested in such a thing.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #118 on: March 23, 2020, 05:48:53 PM »

Alright so for the past few months I did not post on this thread because my general lack of free time did not allow me to keep a close eye on Romanian politics, however I am now able and willing to re-start updating this on a regular basis, if anyone is interested in such a thing.

I am. What's the situation in Romania right now with the virus?
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RGM2609
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« Reply #119 on: March 23, 2020, 07:20:00 PM »

Alright so for the past few months I did not post on this thread because my general lack of free time did not allow me to keep a close eye on Romanian politics, however I am now able and willing to re-start updating this on a regular basis, if anyone is interested in such a thing.

I am. What's the situation in Romania right now with the virus?
Due to the severe measures the government imposed, it is actually looking alright. There are about 500 cases, but the number could have been much much higher if not for the response given how many Romanians from Italy, Spain and other countries in Western Europe came back here. I hope we are able to keep this under control early, because our healthcare system is barely functioning in normal periods. If actual pressure was to be applied on it, it would be over. Now, the economic downturn of the coronavirus (lots of products and especially drugs are not to be found anymore in stores as of today) and the severe measures imposed by the government is very likely to massively boost PSD ahead of the crucial 2020 election, if you want to know the politics of it.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #120 on: March 23, 2020, 07:32:42 PM »

Also, a very clear pattern is starting to emerge in Romanian politics.

2012-2016  PSD won the 2012 election in an electoral landslide (with the help of PNL) after the austerity measures of Basescu, and went on to lead one of the most destructive and incompetent governments in Romanian history (the Ponta governments). In 2015, that government collapsed upon itself due to its extreme unpopularity and ineffectiveness. PNL and Iohannis unofficially assumed power with the technocratic Ciolos cabinet, but early political mistakes, the PSD agents infiltrated in the institutions and PNL being a party of open infighting and arguments at the time, it was unpopular too. Meanwhile, PSD got a new brand, a new leader and a new platform promising radical reforms both within the party and the country. PSD won in a landslide the election of 2016.

2017-2020 After winning the 2016 election, PSD went on to lead the most destructive and incompetent governments in Romanian history (the Dragnea governments). In 2019, that government collapsed upon itself due to its extreme unpopularity and ineffectiveness. PNL and Iohannis officially assumed power with the Orban cabinet, however early political mistakes and the coronavirus crisis made it unpopular too. Meanwhile, PSD got a new brand, a new leader and a new platform promising radical reforms both within the party and the country.

Guess what comes next?
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #121 on: March 24, 2020, 04:56:46 AM »

Alright so for the past few months I did not post on this thread because my general lack of free time did not allow me to keep a close eye on Romanian politics, however I am now able and willing to re-start updating this on a regular basis, if anyone is interested in such a thing.

I am. What's the situation in Romania right now with the virus?
Due to the severe measures the government imposed, it is actually looking alright. There are about 500 cases, but the number could have been much much higher if not for the response given how many Romanians from Italy, Spain and other countries in Western Europe came back here. I hope we are able to keep this under control early, because our healthcare system is barely functioning in normal periods. If actual pressure was to be applied on it, it would be over. Now, the economic downturn of the coronavirus (lots of products and especially drugs are not to be found anymore in stores as of today) and the severe measures imposed by the government is very likely to massively boost PSD ahead of the crucial 2020 election, if you want to know the politics of it.

What are the measures that have been imposed in Romania?

At anyrate I hope Romania makes it out of this crisis OK.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #122 on: March 24, 2020, 05:00:35 AM »

Also, a very clear pattern is starting to emerge in Romanian politics.

2012-2016  PSD won the 2012 election in an electoral landslide (with the help of PNL) after the austerity measures of Basescu, and went on to lead one of the most destructive and incompetent governments in Romanian history (the Ponta governments). In 2015, that government collapsed upon itself due to its extreme unpopularity and ineffectiveness. PNL and Iohannis unofficially assumed power with the technocratic Ciolos cabinet, but early political mistakes, the PSD agents infiltrated in the institutions and PNL being a party of open infighting and arguments at the time, it was unpopular too. Meanwhile, PSD got a new brand, a new leader and a new platform promising radical reforms both within the party and the country. PSD won in a landslide the election of 2016.

2017-2020 After winning the 2016 election, PSD went on to lead the most destructive and incompetent governments in Romanian history (the Dragnea governments). In 2019, that government collapsed upon itself due to its extreme unpopularity and ineffectiveness. PNL and Iohannis officially assumed power with the Orban cabinet, however early political mistakes and the coronavirus crisis made it unpopular too. Meanwhile, PSD got a new brand, a new leader and a new platform promising radical reforms both within the party and the country.

Guess what comes next?

Sounds kind of like American politics where after 2 years the opposition takes congress over.

French politics used to be the same way, and that's why the length of a presidential term here got lowered to 5 years in 2000. Politicians were sick of having to deal with cohabitations all the time. At least with a 5 year presidential term, they could make it coincide with the term of parliament, which has been the case now since 2002.

Is there any talk in Romania about going back to a 4 year presidential term for those reasons?
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RGM2609
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« Reply #123 on: March 24, 2020, 05:21:26 AM »

The measures themselves were not that uncommon but what was uncommon was their timing. Schools were closed before the first coronavirus case was reported (or a very low number was reported), public gatherings were restricted at about that same time, the authorities imposed a national quarantine a few days ago, when there was a low number of cases, with getting out of house is illegal at night and only with very founded reasons at day, and some counties went even further than that. As you might expect, the measures are not THAT popular, but they might have been swallowed up, however the likely economic downturn dooms the government in my opinion.

Well, there was no popular support for raising the presidential term to 5 years in the first place (just like there is no such thing for most of the stuff governments do here), and it was all a scam created by PSD when they thought they will win the 2004 election in order to gain a few more years in power. That massively backfired. But now, we all kind of accepted it. Perhaps there is not more talk of it because unlike France, Romania is a de facto parliamentary republic, meaning that even if the president disagrees with the government, they can mostly walk all over him. Even if the permanent fighting between the President and PM (when they are of different parties) gets a lot of news coverage, it is almost completely irrelevant to the way the country is governed. The thing is PSD collapses out of power by the end of the third year (in the autumn mostly), allowing the opposition to govern with weak parliamentary support only in the electoral year while PSD gets a new brand. I wonder if they are purposefully doing this.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #124 on: March 24, 2020, 09:37:07 AM »

Also, a very clear pattern is starting to emerge in Romanian politics.

2012-2016  PSD won the 2012 election in an electoral landslide (with the help of PNL) after the austerity measures of Basescu, and went on to lead one of the most destructive and incompetent governments in Romanian history (the Ponta governments). In 2015, that government collapsed upon itself due to its extreme unpopularity and ineffectiveness. PNL and Iohannis unofficially assumed power with the technocratic Ciolos cabinet, but early political mistakes, the PSD agents infiltrated in the institutions and PNL being a party of open infighting and arguments at the time, it was unpopular too. Meanwhile, PSD got a new brand, a new leader and a new platform promising radical reforms both within the party and the country. PSD won in a landslide the election of 2016.

2017-2020 After winning the 2016 election, PSD went on to lead the most destructive and incompetent governments in Romanian history (the Dragnea governments). In 2019, that government collapsed upon itself due to its extreme unpopularity and ineffectiveness. PNL and Iohannis officially assumed power with the Orban cabinet, however early political mistakes and the coronavirus crisis made it unpopular too. Meanwhile, PSD got a new brand, a new leader and a new platform promising radical reforms both within the party and the country.

Guess what comes next?

Despite the (doubtless superficial) ideological differences, PSD sound very like the UK Tories Tongue
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