Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)

[RGM2609]

The 2 main candidates for Bucharest Mayor are still disagreeing on when and where to meet for a debate. While Dan proposed to have debates on the 22nd and 23rd of September, Firea demanded for her opponent to show that not only he is not infected with COVID-19...but also that he is not on drugs.

On another note, there are pretty extreme measures being taken this year related to the electoral procedures. While they are very good at preventing COVID-19 from spreading inside the poll stations, they are also likely to cause confusion and chaos among the population. It remains to be seen whether the turnout will be at record lows this year.

[RGM2609]

There has been a new poll ordered and published by PNL on the Bucharest race, showing Nicusor Dan (USR-PNL) narrowly ahead with 40% and Mayor Gabriela Firea in a close second with 37%. Former President Basescu is, according to the poll, in a distant third, with only 11%, and no other candidates get a significant number of votes. This poll seems in agreement with the trajectory of the race, however it shall be met with a healthy dose of skepticism given its source. Nonetheless, it had some furious contestants, including Basescu who in a barely coherent post on Facebook, accused PNL of cutting 10% off his real support in the poll, accused USR of being neomarxist, predicted that, in his words, a profoundly corrupt Mayor who has done nothing else than steal and lie is going to be re-elected, accused the right-wing parties of conspiring to kick PMP out of some alliance and much more. However, besides this ramble, he also made a serious threat that PMP might withdraw its support for the Orban Government if Firea is re-elected. This could open yet another government crisis weeks after we have avoided one.

A not so noticed fact is that the candidacy of ALDE leader and Former PM Tariceanu seems to be failing miserably despite considerable resources being thrown into it. It seems like his long, way too long political career is coming to an end this year, and he is taking his party down with him.

[RGM2609]

Something very important is happening today in Romania: a fight over a budget modification that PSD passed in Parliament. It is a very populist document which raises spendings in a dramatic fashion, the most important of its provisions being the raising of pensions by 40%, rather than 14% as it was planned. For those who don't know, spendings in Romania for the pension system are huge as it is, and such a raise would instantly throw the country into some kind of a default, only solvable by raising taxes on working people, cuts on public investments, massive borrowings or all 3. The fiscal situation is bad as it is given the pandemic.

Anyway, despite it passing Parliament with the votes of PSD+satellites+PRO+UDMR, the government has already contested it to the Constitutional Court, where it is likely to be cancelled. So this could very well be a plot to convince the pensioners to get out to vote at the local elections on Sunday, as there are grave concerns within PSD that fears of the pandemic will keep them home.

[CumbrianLefty]

And we think politics in the UK is cynical.......

[RGM2609]

IMAS poll for the nationwide political vote -

PNL - 35%
PSD - 20%
USRPLUS - 17%
ProRomania - 10%
UDMR - 5%
PMP - 5%
ALDE - 3%
PPUSL - 2%

This new poll is sure to send shockwaves among PSD leaders and activists, however even if this is the result, it could be ignored by the media in favor of the race in Bucharest which will likely be much closer. But they sure hope for a better showing, as they need Mayors to get the people out to vote in December.

It will be interesting to see how many Mayorships does USRPLUS manage to obtain. They might not get too many, despite the potentially misleading percentage. The reason for that is that they are a younger party which has so far not built strong organizations and ground game necessary to win in rural areas and small towns, while in most big cities they are probably edged out by PNL by a bit, not to mention potentially popular Mayors from other parties. The result will probably be that their votes will be wasted and they will get few if any Mayors and Country Chairmen. (If PMP and ALDE get more, you will see how broken the Romanian electoral system truly is).

Likely result - Given how local this election is, it is impossible for me to predict over 3.000 races. However in most rural areas it will be either PSD or PNL, with smaller parties (PMP, ALDE) being unusually strong in some random places depending on their existent ground game. In the Szeklerland UDMR will dominate, and it will be interesting to watch it fight with PNL for some offices in Transylvania where there is a big Hungarian minority. The clearest thing is that PSD will lose and PNL will gain, but we will see by how much. In most cities in Transylvania PNL will rule, with the possible exception of Timisoara, while the fighting for urban areas in Moldova and Wallachia will be as brutal and complicated as usual.

Final update on Bucharest is likely coming tomorrow! Hopefully you did not find that prediction too vague, but this is the best I can come up with given the huge number of races...

[RGM2609]

On September 27th Romanians will go to the polls to elect their local representatives. While this involves thousands and thousands of individual races, as usual the attention of the nation and the media is focused on the fight for the Mayorship of Bucharest and its 6 districts. Here are the races with a brief summary and a rating -

Bucharest Mayor - Mayor Gabriela Firea (PSD) vs Nicusor Dan (USR-PNL) vs Traian Basescu (PMP)
Rating - leaning towards a Nicusor Dan victory
The fight for being the Mayor of Bucharest is an event even on itself and the trend for the crucial parliamentary election is often decided there. Given that Romania still uses the antiquated no-runoffs system to elect its local representatives, the main right wing parties, USR and PNL, had to unite to prevent victories by the PSD candidates solely because of the split in liberal votes. They selected Nicusor Dan, the founder of USR and a civic activist who is quite popular and well known in the city. He also ran in 2012 and 2016, and last time he got 30% of the vote as basically an independent. Normally Firea would lose in such a scenario, especially given her lack of performance, however she is being kept in the game by Former President Basescu, who has entered the race and is sure to take votes from Nicusor Dan, as well as by her relative charisma.

District 1 Mayor - Mayor Daniel Tudorache (PSD) vs Clotilde Armand (USR-PNL)
Rating - leaning towards an USR-PNL victory
This is yet another rematch from four years ago, with Clotilde Armand being an USR star who was actually born in France but lost to Tudorache in a very close (many say rigged) contest in 2016. As District 1 is the most liberal one in the city, if Tudorache gets reelected it is a signal that the rightists are not doing well at all. This is by far the most intense and well-known contest among the District ones as the Mayor keeps sending Policemen to stalk his opponent for whatever reason, and it is also pretty much a culture war, so whichever side wins will get a morale boost.

District 2 Mayor - Dan Cristian Popescu (PSD) vs Radu Mihaiu (USR-PNL) vs Niculai Ontanu (PPUSL)
Rating - leaning towards a PSD victory
This a rather complicated one so bear with me - the incumbent PSD mayor refused to run for another term, and PNL wanted to propose Dan Cristian Popescu, a well known politician who is not the cleanest however. USR refused to support him and thus Popescu did not have a party to run from, until Firea recruited him to run for PSD. The race is further complicated by the entrance of Niculai Ontanu, who led the District for decades before being arrested in 2016. While he is unlikely to win, he will probably take a lot of votes from the PSD candidate.

District 3 Mayor - Mayor Robert Negoita (ProRomania) vs Adrian Moraru (PNL-USR)
Rating - safe ProRomania victory
This is another tricky one - Robert Negoita was originally a PSD member, however he was recruited by Ponta to run for his party, thus leaving PSD without any significant candidate in the District. The Mayor is very popular, thus he will easily win reelection.

District 4 Mayor - Mayor Daniel Baluta (PSD) vs Simona Spataru (USR-PNL)
Rating - likely PSD victory
The incumbent Mayor is relatively popular and his reelection is viewed as very likely, however the USR-PNL candidate does have a small chance of pulling an upset.

District 5 Mayor - Mayor Daniel Florea (PSD) vs Cristian Bacanu (PNL-USR) vs Marian Vanghelie (PSDI)
Rating - leaning towards a PSD victory
The Mayor is a pretty classical PSD politician (read arrogant and corrupt), however District 5 is probably the only PSD-friendly area in the entire city. He would probably have won in a landslide here, if not for Marian Vanghelie, another former Mayor who got arrested in office and now wants to win again. He is a symbol of grammar errors, or at least was until Dancila came around.

District 6 Mayor - Mayor Gabriel Mutu (PSD) vs Ciprian Ciucu (PNL-USR) vs Stefan Florescu (PMP)
Rating - pure tossup
This is probably the closest race in Bucharest and it will probably predict who ends up winning in the end. Ciprian Ciucu is a pretty well known politician and has the modern vibe that the right wing voters look for, however the incumbent Mayor is also pretty popular and the PMP here seems unusually strong. I would not dare making predictions.

The ratings will probably change before now and election day, however I hope you enjoyed this and now know the basics of the Bucharest races!

These have been my ratings 2 weeks ago on all of the races in Bucharest. Now, I would like to change 2 of them (tbh there could be changes in other races as well but I chose only to write those which affect the forecasted winner) -

District 6 - change from tossup to leaning towards PNL-USR

Tbh this was a stretch from the start, however in recent weeks based on polls and mostly reports from the District it would seem like the liberal candidate has built an advantage over the PSD Mayor significant enough to reclassify the race. And now the elephant in the room -

Bucharest Mayor - change from lean PNL-USR to pure tossup

Yeah, this is pretty cowardly. However the candidacy of Traian Basescu has changed this race from a pretty safe target for the anti-PSD forces to a very close and fascinating race. Both Dan and Firea have ran good campaigns, mobilizing their core voters and were somewhat successful at their targets. However, there are some events that happened in the last week or so that are impossible to estimate as to their impact on the race. For starters, the more and more open endorsement of Nicusor Dan by President Iohannis, who has called the candidate to meet with him at the Cotroceni Pallace (the Presidency) and turned Presidential press events into opportunities to campaign for him. It could mobilize voters on either side, but my bet is that it will end up helping Firea more. Then, there is the almost unprecedented media assault by PSD on Nicusor Dan, who got accused on a daily basis on the biggest news stations in the country of various crimes. Especially Antena 3, owned by PSD oligarch Dan Voiculescu, stands out for its enthusiasm and trying to prosecute the right wing candidate without giving him the right to defend himself. Maybe I will write a post on how this Romanian Fox News works. Still, gun to my head, I would still say Firea will lose, but it is very close.

Remember, upsets happen. Do not take these predictions as a sure thing.

[RGM2609]

Today was not a good day for Firea after a strong campaign. She was found guilty by the Electoral Commission to have paid for campaign ads from the budget of the city. As the Commission is not a court, she will not face consequences other than having to pull out the ads (irrelevant now) but USR has already announced that they will press charges against her in the judicial system, which could be a major headache even if she wins the election.

And an investigation by the independent organization Rise debunked a fake news promoted by Firea's Fox News, Antena 3, which invited an anonimous man to uncover new "evidence" against Firea's opponent. It turns out the man was a mobster involved in various schemes. This however has not stopped PSD  from promoting such lies. The Facebook feed of someone living in Bucharest is literally overwhelmed with articles cointaining baseless accusations and conspiracy theories about Nicusor Dan. The spending involved here must be enormous and what is even sadder, it is likely coming from the money of taxpayers too.

A race to which little attention has been paid by me here is Timisoara, probably the biggest chance of USRPLUS to win a Mayorship outside Bucharest. There is a tooth-and-nail fight between their candidate and the incumbent PNL Mayor, which has remarked himself through all-caps rants on Facebook and banning genres of music. Outside Bucharest, this is where the narrative about the results will mostly be formed (Constanta is also very important).

Anyway, this is actually my final update, because tommorrow will be my birthday and I won't be online, but I'll be back on Election Day.

[RGM2609]

The turnout at 10 AM, 3 hours after poll opening is 7.6%, higher than at the presidential in 2019 and similar to the one at the previous local election. In Bucharest however, the turnout seems to be somewhat higher at 6.1% than four years ago when it was at 4.4%.

While initially announced to vote at 10 AM, Firea rushed and went immediately after the polls opened at 7, seemingly in an effort to hide from angry citizens.

[RGM2609]

The trends that were noticed at 10 AM in regards to the turnout continue - at 12 PM, 15.7% of the voters had already cast a ballot, a bit fewer than in 2016 at the same hour (16.5%). The drop was expected given the COVID-19 pandemic, but the turnout is still pretty high. In Bucharest the exact opposite thing is happening - at 12, the turnout was 12.1%, higher than four years ago (10.4%), showing that the race is at least more exciting.

[RGM2609]

Analyzing the turnout patterns in Bucharest, it would seem like Firea has some advantages. Namely - yes, the turnout is bigger than in 2016, however, in 2016 it was abysmal, and if the same trends continue, by the poll closings it will be at under 40%. And until 12 at least, most of the voters were old and more women voted than men. Those are voters who are more likely to vote for the incumbent. However, after 12, lines started to form, consisting of mostly young and middle aged persons, which is an advantage for the challenger. The risk for the right wing is that its electorate tends to vote later in the day, but may not get to express their preferences now as long lines form because of anti-COVID measures and the overall process is way slower.

[RGM2609]

At 3 PM, the turnout in Bucharest continues to be ahead of the one in 2016, at 21.2% compared to 18.2%, meaning about 60.000 additional voters. It would seem as if the race is very close, with both sides coming out to the polls in their expected numbers. It all comes down to how many anti-PSD voters go to the polls in the final 5-6 hours.

[RGM2609]

One hour and a half left to vote until the polls close! I will post the exit polls as soon as we get them, but I think the race for Bucharest is still very close while the right may perform better than expected at the District levels. Also USR seems to be winning in Timisoara, a race I have posted about a couple of days ago

[RGM2609]

Exit poll CURS-Avangarde for Antena 3

Nicusor Dan - 47%
Gabriela Firea (PSD) - 39%
Traian Basescu (PMP) - 9%
Calin Popescu Tariceanu (ALDE) - 2%
Florin Calinescu (Greens) - 2%

Exit poll SOCIOPOL for Romania TV

Nicusor Dan - 45%
Gabriela Firea (PSD) - 44%
Traian Basescu (PMP) - 7%

District 1 -
CURS-Avangarde: Armand (USR) 47%, Tudorache (PSD) - 37%
Sociopol: Tudorache (PSD) 43%, Armand (USR) - 40%

District 2 -
CURS-Avangarde: Mihaiu (USR) 42%, Popescu (PSD) 31%
Sociopol - Mihaiu (USR) 36%, Popescu (PSD) 34%

District 3 -
CURS-Avangarde: Negoita (PRO) 39%, Moraru (PNL) 34%
Sociopol: Negoita (PRO) 48%, Moraru (PNL) 28%

District 4 -
CURS-Avangarde: Baluta (PSD) 55%, Spataru (USR) 37%
Sociopol: Baluta (PSD) 54%, Spataru (USR) 34%

District 5 -
C-A: Bacanu (PNL) 27%, Piedone (PPUSL) 27%, Florea (PSD) 24%
Sociopol: Florea (PSD) 25%, Bacanu (PNL) 25%

District 6 -
C-A: Ciucu (PNL) 48%, Mutu (PSD) 35%
Sociopol: Ciucu (PNL) 43%, Mutu (PSD) 40%

[Mike88]

This is a bit humiliating for a 2 term former President of the Republic, who was also mayor of Bucharest, isn't it?

[RGM2609]

Exit poll Curs-Avangarde in Constanta -

Stelian Ion (USR) - 29%
Virgil Chitac (PNL) - 29%
Mayor Decebal Fagadau (PSD) - 24%

Exit poll Curs-Avangarde in Craiova -

Lia Olguta Vasilescu (PSD) - 35%
Nicolae Giugea (PNL) - 29%
Antonie Solomon (Ecologists) - 18%

The result in Constanta particularly stands out as a disaster for PSD, as it was a race they thought it was competitive.

[RGM2609]

This is a bit humiliating for a 2 term former President of the Republic, who was also mayor of Bucharest, isn't it?

Humiliating yes, surprising no. Getting into this race was a huge, huge mistake for the former President, as it was not only a humiliation but also caused PMP to be isolated from the other right wing parties with which it could have allied with after the Parliamentary.

[Mike88]

This is a bit humiliating for a 2 term former President of the Republic, who was also mayor of Bucharest, isn't it?

Humiliating yes, surprising no. Getting into this race was a huge, huge mistake for the former President, as it was not only a humiliation but also caused PMP to be isolated from the other right wing parties with which it could have allied with after the Parliamentary.

Yeah, just saw polling and he never had a chance and could have hurted even more the center-right coalition. Though, it seems the PSD is very likely to lose Bucharest.

[RGM2609]

Also, according to SOCIOPOL, PSD is actually the biggest party in the Local Council of Bucharest with 34%, but USR with 31% and PNL with 21% have a majority. Another party which entered the Council is PMP, with 6%.

[RGM2609]

This is a bit humiliating for a 2 term former President of the Republic, who was also mayor of Bucharest, isn't it?

Humiliating yes, surprising no. Getting into this race was a huge, huge mistake for the former President, as it was not only a humiliation but also caused PMP to be isolated from the other right wing parties with which it could have allied with after the Parliamentary.

Yeah, just saw polling and he never had a chance and could have hurted even more the center-right coalition. Though, it seems the PSD is very likely to lose Bucharest.

Yes, I think everyone accepted it by now. They are now hoping to win some Districts where the race is tight. It remains to be seen how badly they lost in the country.

[Mike88]

Just a question: You also vote for 3 different offices, right?

[RGM2609]

Just a question: You also vote for 3 different offices, right?

Yes, we vote for: Mayor, Local Council, County Council and County Council President. In Bucharest they are different: Mayor, Local Council, District Mayor, District Council.

[Mike88]

Just a question: You also vote for 3 different offices, right?

Yes, we vote for: Mayor, Local Council, County Council and County Council President. In Bucharest they are different: Mayor, Local Council, District Mayor, District Council.

Interesting. Just asked because here in Portugal, we also vote for 3 different offices on local elections: Municipal Council (Mayor), Municipal Assembly and Parish Assembly.

Do you know any good results websites?

[RGM2609]

Just a question: You also vote for 3 different offices, right?

Yes, we vote for: Mayor, Local Council, County Council and County Council President. In Bucharest they are different: Mayor, Local Council, District Mayor, District Council.

Interesting. Just asked because here in Portugal, we also vote for 3 different offices on local elections: Municipal Council (Mayor), Municipal Assembly and Parish Assembly.

Do you know any good results websites?

For now, I do not think there are any usable websites. Until the morning, the only data available will be what the counts of the parties based on what the reports they get from the countryside. I will post them here.

[RGM2609]

So the counting has begun and now we are in the confused phase in which parties that are doing faster countings leak results that contradict the very early official results (mostly from rural areas). I will try to stay up and watch results. In about 10 hours everything will become clear and the winners will be acknowledged, then I'll write the conclusions of this wild election.

[RGM2609]

The local elections have ended, and we have a winner - PNL. They won and it is not even close. They have gone up from 8 County Chairmen to 17 County Chairmen, more than double.

In Transylvania, PNL has won almost every county, except for Hunedoara (Jiu Valley) and Bistrita where PSD prevailed and the majority Hungarian areas which voted for UDMR. They also won most cities, but some painful defeats in major towns like Timisoara, Brasov and Alba Iulia where the people unseated PNL incumbents with challengers from USRPLUS stand out as a potential warning sign.

In Oltenia, PSD dominated as it was expected, as this is the region that has stayed most loyal to the party, even as some races have been closer than expected. PNL has wasted a big opportunity of defeating the loathed Lia Olguta Vasilescu, a fanatic Dragnea backer, in Craiova, even as her score dropped from 60% in 2016 to 35% now.

In Muntenia, PSD did win and it reasserted itself as the largest party in the area, however there are signs of the region slipping away from them. Giurgiu County for example, which has been a PSD feud for decades has been lost to the governing National Liberal Party, and the race was close in many other places, including the infamous Teleorman County which has been ruled by Dragnea for years and is also the birthplace of Dancila.

In Bucharest, the incumbent PSD Mayors were all unseated, except for the one in the 4th District, even as the incumbent in the 1st District still claims that he won. This is a disaster for PSD, which was never expected to lose this badly. Disheartening however, is the result from the 5th District, where the Mayor who presided over the Colectiv was elected with 28% from a minor party.

In Moldova, the most important story of the night probably is in Vrancea, where the baron Marian Oprisan which has ruled over the county for decades lost to the PNL candidate. Similar defeats happened to PSD in Suceava and Iasi County, home to the big city of Iasi. Moldova continues to move away to PSD, even as it still manages to win in some places due to divided opposition.

Who lost? PSD obviously lost, but outside of Bucharest, it could have been worse. The only-one-round system advantages them, otherwise the map would have been different. It remains to be seen how many Mayors they have lost, as only then will we be able to see the extent of their losses.

PNL won and showed that it still the biggest party in the country, but the defeats in Timisoara and Brasov particularly show that their strength in urban areas may be overestimated. They have also left a lot of targets on the table, losing them by narrow margins, something that must be frustrating at least.

The verdict of the electorate for USR was split. They did get sweet victories in Bucharest and other cities, where the main battle has been fought. However, they failed to win even one County Chairmanship and their results in many counties, especially rural, have been underwhelming. They seem unable to form a coalition of voters, rather than just their core supporters.

The small parties have lost image, namely PMP, ALDE and to an extent ProRomania. Both Basescu and Tariceanu, the leaders of PMP and ALDE, faced bad defeats in the high-profile Bucharest race and ProRomania went off the public attention. However, they showed they still have some sort of ground game in the countryside and won some offices, which will help them get over the crucial 5% at the Parliamentary.

UDMR just kept the positions they have had since 1992. No surprises there.