Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)

[RGM2609]

Record diaspora turnout - over 500.000 voters!
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1193555984494596100

My unserious guess - Klaus Iohannis wins over 50%, avoiding a second round

Yes, the record diaspora turnout is due to people being allowed to vote for 3 days and through mail, preventing those legendary lines from happening.
About your guess, a second round is prevented according to current legislation only if a candidate gets over 50% of the votes of the entire population, not only voters, so given the turnout is projected at 52-53%, I doubt that will ever happen

[RGM2609]

45 minutes to go. I will publish all exit polls but keep in mind that they do not contain the hundreds of thousands of votes from abroad or the hundreds of thousands of votes expressed in the last 2 hours in the country, so they are only useful to an extent

[Mike88]

Overseas voting is very center-right leaning, right? If Iohannis get 47-48% in Romania alone, the overseas voting could make him cross 50%, perhaps.

[RGM2609]

Overseas voting is very center-right leaning, right? If Iohannis get 47-48% in Romania alone, the overseas voting could make him cross 50%, perhaps.

Yes, but as I said earlier, that won't do anything for him, as he needs to get 50% of the entire population's votes in order for the second round to be avoided, not just 50% of the votes. Anyway, the overseas votes could be leaning for Barna rather than Iohannis, which would help him surpass Dancila and get in the second round, so they are still very important

[Mike88]

Overseas voting is very center-right leaning, right? If Iohannis get 47-48% in Romania alone, the overseas voting could make him cross 50%, perhaps.

Yes, but as I said earlier, that won't do anything for him, as he needs to get 50% of the entire population's votes in order for the second round to be avoided, not just 50% of the votes. Anyway, the overseas votes could be leaning for Barna rather than Iohannis, which would help him surpass Dancila and get in the second round, so they are still very important

Ah, ok. That's a weird rule, but anyway. If PSD doesn't get into the second round, the sinking will further continue. The 2020 general elections could be a survival test for PSD.

[RGM2609]

Overseas voting is very center-right leaning, right? If Iohannis get 47-48% in Romania alone, the overseas voting could make him cross 50%, perhaps.

Yes, but as I said earlier, that won't do anything for him, as he needs to get 50% of the entire population's votes in order for the second round to be avoided, not just 50% of the votes. Anyway, the overseas votes could be leaning for Barna rather than Iohannis, which would help him surpass Dancila and get in the second round, so they are still very important

Ah, ok. That's a weird rule, but anyway. If PSD doesn't get into the second round, the sinking will further continue. The 2020 general elections could be a survival test for PSD.

I agree, but I'd argue that the performance of the Orban Government during the next year will be more crucial to PSD's electoral result in 2020. The fact that they lost the government is a hidden gift for them, as PNL will struggle to govern. Badly. And might even have to do austerity.

[RGM2609]

SOCIOPOL for Romania TV:

Iohannis (PNL) - 42%
Dancila (PSD) - 18%
Barna (USR) - 16%
Diaconu (PRO-ALDE) - 10%
Paleologu (PMP) - 5%
Hunor (UDMR) - 3%
Others - 6%

CURS-AVANGARDE for Antena 3

Iohannis (PNL) -39%
Dancila (PSD) - 22.5%
Barna (USR-PLUS) - 16.4%
Diaconu (PRO-ALDE) - 7.9%
Paleologu (PMP) - 6.1%
Hunor (UDMR) - 3.9%
Others - 4.2%

IRES for B1

Iohannis (PNL) - 38.7%
Dancila (PSD) - 22%
Barna (USR-PLUS) - 16.1%
Diaconu (PRO-ALDE) - 8.2%
Paleologu (PMP) - 5.7%
Hunor (UDMR) - 4.6%
Others - 4.7%

[Tender Branson]

Uggghhh ... Dancila.

The Sarah Palin of Europe.

[Mike88]

The second place seems to be at play, at least in the Romania TV poll. The other two exit polls are quite similar in predicting a PNL vs PSD run off.

[RGM2609]

Uggghhh ... Dancila.

The Sarah Palin of Europe.

Hopefully the overseas votes and those from the last 2 hours will take her down for good.

[RGM2609]

The second place seems to be at play, at least in the Romania TV poll. The other two exit polls are quite similar in predicting a PNL vs PSD run off.

The Romania TV poll was different because it estimated the overseas votes and added them to the poll. Their estimation can be right or wrong.

[RGM2609]

Iohannis's speech after the poll closing:

This vote is a huge step forward for Romania. Sure, the official results will come out tommorrow, but the exit polls shows that millions of Romanians, at home and abroad, voted for our project, for a normal Romania and for continuing the important process of change. I have always believed in Romania and in its people's involvment, and their participation to the polls is a great joy for Romania's democracy. I want to thank to all of those who gave us their trust. First of all, to the Liberals, but also to all right-wing voters and to those that don't particularly like a party but also want what we want: a normal Romania. Our common fight is not about a common party. Our fight is for the complete removal of PSD from power, because PSD will keep Romania trapped in its past if we don't remove it from power.
Today we have made a big step in this direction. But it is not the decisive step. There is still work to do. This years have been years of fighting and resisting. We have defeated PSD's very aggresive attacks. If we have not opposed, PSD would have managed to destroy everything that was built in Romania in the last decade: democratic institutions, rule of law, partenerships, the European way. If we would have allowed PSD to carry on with its plans, Romania would have turned back to the 1990s, maybe even worse, maybe today we wouldn't have had elections. Because this is what PSD wants, if it is not stopped. And we stopped them.
I make a call to the USR voters to build this future we all want. I also tell those from PMP to come to the polls. We can together build the educated Romania that I also want. The war with PSD is still not over, but we are in the position to work together. Us, USR-PLUS, PMP, UDMR, all of us who want a normal Romania! That does not mean the PSD voters will be forgotten. Because they also want public funds to be properly used: for schools, hospitals, highways, pensions, and also fair laws obeyed by all.

[RGM2609]

Dancila's speech after the polls closed:

I want to thank all Romanians who came out and voted, especially to the PSD County Presidents, to all of our members and symphatisers and to all who gave us their trust. This vote honors us and also gives us responsabilities. According to the exit polls, we are in the second round. Without having an exact result, I want to thank to all who voted with the heart (Dancila's electoral symbol). We showed that we are close to the Romanians.
I hope that in the next 2 weeks, more people will join us. I hope that those who voted for other candidates will join us. The vote from today shows the trust the people have in us and it helps us to continue our campaign in which we will show the Romanian people what we accomplished for them and what we want to do for them after we win the presidential election.
Our goal is not against a political party, we do not seek to eliminate a political party, our fight is for Romania and for Romanians and is also for unity. We hope that the vote the people have given today will be repeated in the second round, a vote given with the heart.

[RGM2609]

Barna's speech after the polls closed:

Good evening, I have seen the results. This are results which encourage us. We stay optimistic, because right now there is still voting taking place (abroad). I want to thank to the Romanians from overseas because it has sent the message that Romania needs. It is an historical accomplishment without precedent and it gives us confidence and hope. There is still one hour left to vote in Europe, two hours in United Kingdom and 7-8 hours in the United States. I am optimistic about the final results, because the tendency is one of growth.
I thank all of those who voted and to my colleagues who did an spectacular campaign. Actually, the only campaign, because USR-PLUS and its candidates were the only ones present on the streets.
There is now a chance for Romania's modernisation to happen now and not 5 years from now.
My call to the colleagues from the poll stations is to pay attention to the vote count. It will be a difference of only a few thousands votes for the second place. Which is why it is important for the votes to be counted properly. It is not mandatory for the final result to be the same as the exit polls.
There is a big chance for Romania's future and what we showed during the campaign is that yes, common folks can fight the old political establishment. The future is ours. It is a good thing that the turnout was so high, this encourages us and we will build our next steps based on it.

[Lechasseur]

Great to see that President Iohannis is doing so well!

When's the runoff?

[RGM2609]

Great to see that President Iohannis is doing so well!

When's the runoff?

Two weeks from now, on November 24th

[Lechasseur]

Great to see that President Iohannis is doing so well!

When's the runoff?

Two weeks from now, on November 24th

From what I could see in the polls it looks like Iohannis should win in basically a landslide (like over 60% of the vote) is that correct?

[RGM2609]

Great to see that President Iohannis is doing so well!

When's the runoff?

Two weeks from now, on November 24th

From what I could see in the polls it looks like Iohannis should win in basically a landslide (like over 60% of the vote) is that correct?

Yes, that is correct. Also the counting has begun and it is clear that Dancila is the one who will battle Iohannis in the runoff, making his victory even more clear. I will publish the final results in the morning.

[Lechasseur]

Great to see that President Iohannis is doing so well!

When's the runoff?

Two weeks from now, on November 24th

From what I could see in the polls it looks like Iohannis should win in basically a landslide (like over 60% of the vote) is that correct?

Yes, that is correct. Also the counting has begun and it is clear that Dancila is the one who will battle Iohannis in the runoff, making his victory even more clear. I will publish the final results in the morning.

Ok that's very good news then

[RGM2609]

The results with some overseas votes still out: Iohannis 37%, Dancila 24%, Barna 13%, Diaconu 9%

How people voted overseas (not fully counted): Iohannis 55%, Barna 25%, Paleologu 7%, Dancila 3%

Bucharest results: Iohannis 31%, Barna 24%, Dancila 18%, Diaconu 11% (USR-PLUS got 41% at the EU elections from May, this clearly shows their downfall)

[Mr. Illini]

Not an expert on Romania, but from what I know, I’ll be pulling for Iohannis in the runoff.

[RGM2609]

The results show that the incumbent President was first in Bucharest and in 29 states while Viorica Dancila only came ahead in 10 states. As always, Kelemen Hunor, the candidate of Hungarians, was first in the 2 states dominated by the said minority. Dan Barna was not first in any county nor was he first in any of the Bucharest's counties.

[RGM2609]

Dan Barna refused to resign and endorsed Klaus Iohannis, both him and USR-PLUS. There are rumors that Ciolos and PLUS will take more responsabilities in the alliance which was left to be mainly led by USR since its foundation.

[RGM2609]

BREAKING: Iohannis refused to have any debates with Viorica Dancila. This is the first time after the Revolution where Presidential Elections don't have a debate, and the logic behind the decission is hard to explain, especially as Dancila is a very easy opponent and Iohannis attacked Ponta in 2014 for intially refusing a debate.

[RGM2609]

Dancila was actually coherent in a press conference she had last night. Did she have the ability to do it all along? XD Also her staff is smart, mocking Iohannis's refusal to debate as well as not having any interviews with Romanian press ever since 2015 and generally his lack of communication and taking the electorate for granted in this election. Dancila's campaign has a strong start compared to the disaster I originally thought it would be.