Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)

[Beagle]

Plumb has been soundly rejected in committee, as predicted, but what happens now? If the proposed ministers have not been appointed, is there a government that can nominate Ramona Manescu?

[Beagle]

I don't think Dan Nica is that much more palatable than Crumb, plus it also disturbs the gender balance that is supposed to be a highlight of the von der Leyen Commission, so his nomination would pretty much be designed to placate the PSD base, leaving the actual filling of the position to the next government. I am hearing that Luminiţa Odobescu has been asked to step into the breach and she might actually be confirmable, what do you think?

EU legislation says that the nomination of the Commissioners is the prerogative of the 'governments' of the states. Bulgarian law, at least, is pretty clear that the government is a collective body, so I was wondering if the vacancies make a nomination impossible, but it seems that you have a different situation.

[Beagle]

The no confidence vote is on Thursday, so what are the chances it does not pass?

As to the EU commission, Nica was indeed nominated, but does not have the proverbial snowball's chance to be confirmed. Melania-Gabriela Ciot is apparently the 'reserve' nominee, and while I hardly know anything about her, I'd expect the next government will have a nominee of their own, but feel free to correct me.

[Beagle]

Plus ça change etc., Romania is in a really bad place politically right now. To wit:

PNL proposed sweeping changes in the electoral law (making mayoral elections 2-round; allowing 3 days of voting for Romanians abroad; allowing people to vote in any precinct in the country, not only in those where they are registered), which triggered a no-confidence motion. This was easily carried with PSD+UDMR+Pro Romania support (Ponta's heel-face turn didn't last long), so Orban's government is now caretaker.

However, opinion polls show a forthcoming landslide win for the PNL, with all other parliamentary parties, including Orban's erstwhile allies USR-PLUS, are heading for a drubbing at best, electoral oblivion at worst. So while PNL, Iohannis and, imo, most Romanian citizens want snap elections, the parties in parliament are absolutely opposed.

Early elections will be triggered if and when the parliament rejects two Iohannis nominees for PM. Predictably, Iohannis nominated Orban as his first nominee. It is certain that, if it comes to it, the second nominee will be equally unpalatable to the current parliamentary majority. So currently the PSD plan is to boycott the sitting in which the Orban nomination will be voted on and maintain the absence of a quorum until... I'm not sure what happens, exactly. This will paralyze Romanian government system for the foreseeable future, since the caretaker Orban government is limited in the scope of ordinances they can pass.
 

[Beagle]

I very much enjoy your coverage of Romanian politics and hope you will keep posting, especially in the run-up to the elections. You guys seem to be a few steps ahead of us - just in the past few days Sofia has seen the same type of protests that united the disparate Romanian opposition factions back in 2018.

Also, a question: how powerful is the Bucharest mayor in comparison to the general council and/or the district mayors? Has there been a time when the mayor and the council were at odds and what happened then?

[Beagle]

Alright so in my post about PSD I was basically saying that it is a party stuck in the past, with nothing to offer for the present or future. This is shown once again by their strategy in Bucharest. Mayor Gabriela Firea, because of whom the capital city (I repeat, the capital city) periodically remains without hot water (or even water at all), has proposed a rather...interesting list for the City Council. The first candidate on it is the former Prime Minister (in the early 1990s) Petre Roman, and it continues with football players who were famous in the late 1990s. This list looks as if it were taken from 20 years ago, and many joked that it was sent by fax and confirmed by telex. It is very clear who she is trying to get out and vote with this attempt of a list - the people who are by now at least 55 years old and will vote for the gold, old days represented by their idols. Quite a good move if you ask me, Bucharest is becoming more and more dominated by old people, especially when the youth/liberals do not feel motivated enough to vote (some could not do it anyway, as they are coming from around the country and still have their official residence in their natal areas)

That is a good joke! I suppose the energy from the protests has fizzled out a bit, but haven't the youth/middle aged crowd learned their lesson from 2016 election about what happens when you let only the pensioners vote?

[Beagle]

I was reading up on Tariceanu, who I agree is one of your worst politicians, and wanted to confirm that my impression that ALDE is indistinguishable from him is correct? In general, other than PSD and PNL, is any of the parties non-personalist, i.e. it would get similar electoral results from a broadly similar coalition of voters even if its leader would drop dead tomorrow?

And speaking of dropping dead, I was wondering what happened to the PRM voters - I know the party still gets marginal support, as does PRU, and obviously PSD has adopted a lot of nationalist rhetoric - but by and large the 'far right' sector in Romanian politics seems oddly empty lately.

[Beagle]

[...]

And speaking of dropping dead, I was wondering what happened to the PRM voters - I know the party still gets marginal support, as does PRU, and obviously PSD has adopted a lot of nationalist rhetoric - but by and large the 'far right' sector in Romanian politics seems oddly empty lately.

[...]

On PRM voters - most of the older ones died by now. Some young fanatics grew up and dropped nationalism. The rest are supporting PSD, as do most of its former politicians. But far right nationalism, or national-communism, has a tendency to backfire spectacularly on the ones who openly use it. The majority of Romania wants a more modern, more liberal society and rhetoric against that can mobilize it to the polls in great numbers.

I see the reports of the death of the far right appear to have been somewhat exaggerated. I would have been genuinely surprised if the nationalist/conspiracy theory voters didn't find an electoral outlet. Hopefully AUR turn out to be regular grifters (much like the late and unlamented Corneliu Vadim Tudor) and not the Kotleba type.

In any case, thank you so much for your coverage, RGM2609! It has been invaluable in helping me understand the Romanian situation. It is, of course, sad that the younger generations seem to have ignored the lessons from 2016, but if everything that has transpired over the course of the last 4 years hasn't taught them, then nothing will. Bulgaria also appears on course to repeat its mistakes in a few months time, so it's not like I have any suggestion on what works in Eastern Europe other than outrage over an event that is extremely fresh in voters mind. I would say that anything over 2-3 weeks is beyond the attention span of the average voter.

I know that it is a difficult question, but do small parties traditionally over- or underperform their exit poll numbers, since a lot will depend on which of the minors get in? With the exception of 2015, the exit polls in Bulgaria have always been more generous to the minor parties than the final results, so when a party is right at the threshold at poll closing time in the exits, almost inevitably they are out in the morning.

[Beagle]

Anyway, as far as AUR goes, nobody knew who they were until a month ago. They smartly exploited the backlash against COVID-19 restrictions and PSD's moderation in pushing virus-related conspiracy theories. The environment was just perfect for them. I have no doubt they will share PPDD's fate, but hey, I've been wrong before. Anyway, I am not yet sure they will be getting in for many reasons but the main one is - they have no poll watchers. Poll watchers are everything, especially in rural areas. I think their votes will be stolen to some extent by the established parties.

Ah... Also, the exit don't take into account the diaspora vote, where the AUR vote share will be minuscule, right? In that case I'd definitely agree that it is very likely for them to fall under the threshold.

[Beagle]

Yikes.

A hefty polling miss, but no pollster would have had modeled a turnout barely above 30% and last minute upsurges in support for beyond-the-pale parties are notoriously hard to catch. But the results are genuinely alarming. With only about 1 out of 7 eligible voters casting a vote for one of the (presumptive) governing parties and with opposition that will be trolling every step of the way, I expect PNL/USR support to crater rather soon. 

I never realized that there is such a strong nationalist current among Romanians living abroad - wasn't  the 2014 voting lines debacle caused precisely because PSD wanted to reduce the diaspora participation, as the expatriates were strongly pro-Iohannis? Although I'm not sure if the overseas vote report includes Western Europe and the US yet, where presumably AUR will not be as strong. However, if it includes Moldova, surely it is curtains for PMP?
 

[Beagle]

BREAKING - Following reported pressures from inside PNL and from President Iohannis, Prime Minister Orban has resigned from his job. Many blame his government for the awful result from yesterday. Now, PNL will have to propose someone else for the job, and Deputy PM Raluca Turcan will probably lead the lame-duck government until the right-wing parties form another government.

Stepping down as party leader too or only as PM?

If the normal patterns are in place, I expect support for AUR - and to a lesser extent PSD - to spike now, so the center-right will have an extra incentive to not make government formation too difficult. I very much doubt that the PNL/USR voters from 2019 who abstained this time are feeling too much remorse now, so it is imperative that there are no new elections. Any updates on the outstanding precincts?

[Beagle]

Reading our local coverage now... Was Bobby Păunescu involved in political campaigns before?

[Beagle]

Indeed, my second- and third-hand impression is that AUR ran a really slick campaign on social media (at least in part directed by Bobby Păunescu), but also that they had a suspiciously high budget for premium glossy leaflets, campaign events and the like. Their meme game was strong, but they also had a heavy street presence, especially at Covid protests. RGM2609 will correct me if I'm wrong.

[Beagle]

Yikes. Orban coming back is an... unfortunate, but not entirely unforeseeable turn of events. How popular was Voiculescu - obviously not among the anti-vax, anti-mask marchers, but among the presumptive government base? How likely is it that Iohannis refuses to give the mandate to Orban?

[Beagle]

I don't think it's going to happen now, but if it comes to a dissolution of the USR-PLUS alliance, how many deputies belong to each faction?

[Beagle]

It's not happening, they have officially merged yesterday. But, out of 80 deputies, 55 to the former USR and 25 to the former PLUS.

The formal merger was initiated months ago, wasn't it? And they are keeping the co-chairmanship afaik and we all know that two-headed dragons (balaurs) don't tend to fare very well in the Balkans.

The coverage I've read suggests that Barna is ready to fold - and certainly, as long as USR-PLUS aren't ready to bring down the government over the Voiculescu sacking, there isn't much that they can salvage other than the appointment of Mihăilă - but I'm thinking that there is going to be a political void in the spectrum for people who wouldn't vote PSD or AUR under any circumstances, but disagree with the current government, and sooner or later Cioloș (among others) may be tempted to go their own way. Other than not taking part in the distribution of the EU recovery funds, I really don't see much downside to it (from a pure political self-preservation point, of course).

[Beagle]

Finally, we have some polls in the country -

SOCIOPOL, which seems to be unfortunately the best polling firm right now, has these numbers (the poll was conducted before the crisis)

PSD - 35%
PNL - 26%
USR - 17%
AUR - 12%
UDMR - 4%
PMP - 3%
PRO - 2%

CURS, not that good but the only one conducted after the crisis -

PSD - 33%
PNL - 21%
USR - 16%
AUR - 12%
PMP - 5%
UDMR - 4%
PPUSL - 4%
PRO - 3%

Wait, is PPUSL some offshoot from (Dan) Voiculescu's cartel party and why on earth would that be coming back in vogue? Wouldn't the 'humanists' be all in the PSD or ALDE these days anyway?

Anyway, as I mentioned earlier, I think to the extent that PMP and PRO have any political future at all, it would be as a non-PSD, non-AUR alternative to the present government. Speaking of which, are there any developments worth mentioning about Băsescu and Ponta lately?

[Beagle]

Thanks for keeping us updated.
On a completely unrelated note, this viral gif that is making the rounds does not remind me of Romanian non-PSD political parties. Not at all relevant. Nothing pertinent whatsoever.

https://twitter.com/urupzia/status/1383518691963260933

[Beagle]

What did Barna allegedly do?

[Beagle]

Dragnea getting released from jail by a Giurgiu court doesn't seem right to me; if allowed to venue shop, why wouldn't all convicted PSD politicians apply for early release to Giurgiu and Slatina courts, while their PNL counterparts - to Alba Iulia and Arad?

[Beagle]

Actually, Giurgiu has been shifting away from PSD for years, culminating with a big defeat in 2020. Since last year, PNL controls both the city and the county at large. And in the 2020 parliamentary, PNL won in Giurgiu the highest percentage it won in any county. While the decision is still very questionable, I doubt the political allegiance of the place had anything to do with it.

Ha, I have it ingrained that Giurgiu = PSD stronghold, that's an interesting development. But I'm still curious as to why the hearing took place in Giurgiu, if the crime didn't take place there. Under our legal system, this would have been heard in the court with jurisdiction where Dragnea is jailed (afaik, it's Rahova prison, so Bucharest something).

[Beagle]

Could you expand a bit on the way USR+ congress delegates are selected? I assume former USR and PLUS members are automatically enrolled, but do they allow membership in the alliance as such? Also, was the congress pushed back or was it always 2 October (I assume that USR+ deliberately want to know what happens at the PNL congress before taking their decision?

[Beagle]

So, a huge scandal has erupted right now - Citu was arrested in the US for driving under the influence while he was a student there. Of course, the information is not such a bombshell itself, as he only stayed there for two days, but rather the fact that he kept it hidden for the past 20 years as he rose through the ranks of politics. Orban claims he did not know and probably Iohannis did not either. Citu, with the hubris that he is now well-known for, refuses to take any responsibility, and he is trying to blame it on whoever leaked it to the press. It is unclear how this will affect the PNL leadership race, which is heating up now more than ever. This gives Orban a bit of a break and an opportunity to go on the offensive after a year of getting abandoned by most of his high-ranking supporters, but whether he will manage to put a dent in the advantage Citu has is unknown. Meanwhile, USR is exploding. Tired of the contempt with which Citu treats them, they had a very tense meeting in which they came close to demanding his resignation, with only the memory of what happened in April stopping them.

In other news, PSD, apparently with help from whatever remains of the PMP, is starting a recall effort against controversial USR Mayor of District 1 Clotilde Armand. To have the recall referendum organized, they need a pretty big number of signatures and the odds are against them. I will update you on what could happen next and the impact of this if PSD manages to get enough people to sign.

Couple of questions: when you say Citu stayed 'there' for 2 days, do you mean jail? I don't imagine this is going to dissuade enough of his supporters to make a difference in the leadership race - the people who would be most turned off probably aren't PNL voters anyway. Also, is the recall procedure/threshold changed in any significant way since the 2012 Băsescu vote? From what you write, it seems that the real hurdle is in collecting signatures, not in getting enough people to turn out to vote. I'd appreciate it if you can elaborate on how Tudorache managed to keep the margin nailbitingly close in the 2020 battle with Armand - Sector 1 should be pretty hostile territory for PSD, especially in 2020.

[Beagle]

Thanks! I realized that I actually don't know which offices are subject to recall - president and mayors, presumably also county presidents, but what about legislators/municipal/county councilors?

While fiddling around with the results site, it struck me that this Nicolae Valeriu-Ciolan person  came awfully close to winning a seat as an independent. Why? Have there been actually successful independent campaigns for the lower chamber in recent years?

[Beagle]

It would be hilarious if both would fail because they would not vote for the motions of each other. But that probably will not happen.

Romanian parliament still does that weird black ball/white ball thing, right? If there is no way of knowing which particular MP voted for/against the government, I don't see how the vote will fail because the parties don't want to vote for each others motion. What is the timeline now? Iohannis will presumably sign-off on the sacking (and even if he didn't, I gather the motions are already filed). If/when the government is brought down, how many days do the parties have to (re)negotiate for a government, because I imagine it will be impossible to get somebody to compromise with the party congresses coming up.