Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)

[Lechasseur]

Great to see that President Iohannis is doing so well!

When's the runoff?

[Lechasseur]

Great to see that President Iohannis is doing so well!

When's the runoff?

Two weeks from now, on November 24th

From what I could see in the polls it looks like Iohannis should win in basically a landslide (like over 60% of the vote) is that correct?

[Lechasseur]

Great to see that President Iohannis is doing so well!

When's the runoff?

Two weeks from now, on November 24th

From what I could see in the polls it looks like Iohannis should win in basically a landslide (like over 60% of the vote) is that correct?

Yes, that is correct. Also the counting has begun and it is clear that Dancila is the one who will battle Iohannis in the runoff, making his victory even more clear. I will publish the final results in the morning.

Ok that's very good news then

[Lechasseur]

Tomorrow the second round is coming and for the first time since I got the right to vote, I don't think I am going to the polls. The turnout from abroad also doesn't seem to be that great, althrough it is still early, and it could point out to a larger trend amongst the Romanian college graduates and urban residents.

Why do you plan on NOT voting?

[Lechasseur]

Alright so for the past few months I did not post on this thread because my general lack of free time did not allow me to keep a close eye on Romanian politics, however I am now able and willing to re-start updating this on a regular basis, if anyone is interested in such a thing.

I am. What's the situation in Romania right now with the virus?

[Lechasseur]

Alright so for the past few months I did not post on this thread because my general lack of free time did not allow me to keep a close eye on Romanian politics, however I am now able and willing to re-start updating this on a regular basis, if anyone is interested in such a thing.

I am. What's the situation in Romania right now with the virus?

Due to the severe measures the government imposed, it is actually looking alright. There are about 500 cases, but the number could have been much much higher if not for the response given how many Romanians from Italy, Spain and other countries in Western Europe came back here. I hope we are able to keep this under control early, because our healthcare system is barely functioning in normal periods. If actual pressure was to be applied on it, it would be over. Now, the economic downturn of the coronavirus (lots of products and especially drugs are not to be found anymore in stores as of today) and the severe measures imposed by the government is very likely to massively boost PSD ahead of the crucial 2020 election, if you want to know the politics of it.

What are the measures that have been imposed in Romania?

At anyrate I hope Romania makes it out of this crisis OK.

[Lechasseur]

Also, a very clear pattern is starting to emerge in Romanian politics.

2012-2016  PSD won the 2012 election in an electoral landslide (with the help of PNL) after the austerity measures of Basescu, and went on to lead one of the most destructive and incompetent governments in Romanian history (the Ponta governments). In 2015, that government collapsed upon itself due to its extreme unpopularity and ineffectiveness. PNL and Iohannis unofficially assumed power with the technocratic Ciolos cabinet, but early political mistakes, the PSD agents infiltrated in the institutions and PNL being a party of open infighting and arguments at the time, it was unpopular too. Meanwhile, PSD got a new brand, a new leader and a new platform promising radical reforms both within the party and the country. PSD won in a landslide the election of 2016.

2017-2020 After winning the 2016 election, PSD went on to lead the most destructive and incompetent governments in Romanian history (the Dragnea governments). In 2019, that government collapsed upon itself due to its extreme unpopularity and ineffectiveness. PNL and Iohannis officially assumed power with the Orban cabinet, however early political mistakes and the coronavirus crisis made it unpopular too. Meanwhile, PSD got a new brand, a new leader and a new platform promising radical reforms both within the party and the country.

Guess what comes next?

Sounds kind of like American politics where after 2 years the opposition takes congress over.

French politics used to be the same way, and that's why the length of a presidential term here got lowered to 5 years in 2000. Politicians were sick of having to deal with cohabitations all the time. At least with a 5 year presidential term, they could make it coincide with the term of parliament, which has been the case now since 2002.

Is there any talk in Romania about going back to a 4 year presidential term for those reasons?

[Lechasseur]

By the way, is Orban still the PM?

[Lechasseur]

Also, a very clear pattern is starting to emerge in Romanian politics.

2012-2016  PSD won the 2012 election in an electoral landslide (with the help of PNL) after the austerity measures of Basescu, and went on to lead one of the most destructive and incompetent governments in Romanian history (the Ponta governments). In 2015, that government collapsed upon itself due to its extreme unpopularity and ineffectiveness. PNL and Iohannis unofficially assumed power with the technocratic Ciolos cabinet, but early political mistakes, the PSD agents infiltrated in the institutions and PNL being a party of open infighting and arguments at the time, it was unpopular too. Meanwhile, PSD got a new brand, a new leader and a new platform promising radical reforms both within the party and the country. PSD won in a landslide the election of 2016.

2017-2020 After winning the 2016 election, PSD went on to lead the most destructive and incompetent governments in Romanian history (the Dragnea governments). In 2019, that government collapsed upon itself due to its extreme unpopularity and ineffectiveness. PNL and Iohannis officially assumed power with the Orban cabinet, however early political mistakes and the coronavirus crisis made it unpopular too. Meanwhile, PSD got a new brand, a new leader and a new platform promising radical reforms both within the party and the country.

Guess what comes next?

Despite the (doubtless superficial) ideological differences, PSD sound very like the UK Tories

Well when you get down to it, both of the main parties in Romania are basically conservative at this point if I'm not wrong.

[Lechasseur]

Also, a very clear pattern is starting to emerge in Romanian politics.

2012-2016  PSD won the 2012 election in an electoral landslide (with the help of PNL) after the austerity measures of Basescu, and went on to lead one of the most destructive and incompetent governments in Romanian history (the Ponta governments). In 2015, that government collapsed upon itself due to its extreme unpopularity and ineffectiveness. PNL and Iohannis unofficially assumed power with the technocratic Ciolos cabinet, but early political mistakes, the PSD agents infiltrated in the institutions and PNL being a party of open infighting and arguments at the time, it was unpopular too. Meanwhile, PSD got a new brand, a new leader and a new platform promising radical reforms both within the party and the country. PSD won in a landslide the election of 2016.

2017-2020 After winning the 2016 election, PSD went on to lead the most destructive and incompetent governments in Romanian history (the Dragnea governments). In 2019, that government collapsed upon itself due to its extreme unpopularity and ineffectiveness. PNL and Iohannis officially assumed power with the Orban cabinet, however early political mistakes and the coronavirus crisis made it unpopular too. Meanwhile, PSD got a new brand, a new leader and a new platform promising radical reforms both within the party and the country.

Guess what comes next?

Despite the (doubtless superficial) ideological differences, PSD sound very like the UK Tories

Well when you get down to it, both of the main parties in Romania are basically conservative at this point if I'm not wrong.

Given that most of what parties do is either for personal or electoral gain, it is very hard to categorize them ideologically, however based on the few ideologically coherent actions I would say that PNL is a classic liberal/mainstream conservative party while the PSD is a nationalist/Trumpist conservative party (sometimes openly like when Dragnea was in charge, sometimes more quietly like right now). Given that USR is centrist at best and other parties are also rightist (again, based on the very few ideologically coherent actions), the political scene in Romania now is very heavily tilted towards the right (if or when the main debate will become left vs right, that will quickly change).

Now, related to the UK Tories. You are right, they are quite similar. As a fun fact, on all demographic categories (except social class, but the same social class in Romania is very different from what it is in the UK), the categories likely to vote for Tories in the UK are safe PSD or at least friendly to that god awful party here.

What do you mean about the social classes being different? In which way?

[Lechasseur]

New IMAS poll -
 
PNL - 33%
PSD - 25%
USR-PLUS - 16%
ProRomania - 8%
UDMR - 6%
ALDE - 4%
PMP - 3%

New CURS poll -

PNL - 34%
PSD - 29%
USR-PLUS - 14%
ProRomania - 7%
UDMR - 5%
PMP - 5%
ALDE - 4%

The threshold for entering the Parliament is 5%.

The threshold for entering Parliament is 5%.

Is this good or bad news for PNL?

[Lechasseur]

The second Minister who is gone from the Cabinet is Alexandru Nazare, the PNL Finance Minister. He is one of the few Ministers who did not endorse the bid of Prime Minister Citu to oust Ludovic Orban from his position as PNL Leader. According to political sources, Nazare did not approve of the plans by Citu to give a lot of money from the budget to PNL Mayors to buy their support in the internal campaign. He will probably be replaced by a PNL County Chairman who is still undecided or some other official whose support would be valuable for the PM.

It was not until today that a successor was finally appointed. And it is Dan Vilceanu, an ally of Citu, leader of an organization important for the next Congress, and, of course, ex-PSD and ex-PDL until he finally found his love for liberalism. Quite an influential character, he is literally the manager of the internal campaign of the PM. Needless to say, he will, in his new job, do anything and spend as much as it is needed to buy support for Citu.

Anyway, obviously, Orban was not pleased with this choice and tried to nominate someone else and then refused to call a meeting of the PNL National Bureau, a council that is supposed to nominate Ministers for PNL. However, in a statutory but very unprecedented and unthinkable move, he was bypassed and the PNL General Secretary called the meeting. Never in the history of the party has the authority of its president been so disrespected. Fittingly, the nominee was voted by everyone who attended except Ludovic Orban. Orban's supporters have boycotted the meeting, but they would have been in minority either way.

So, did Citu succeed in ousting Orban? And what is the future for the PNL's leadership looking like heading into 2024 when President Iohannis steps down? Who's best positioned to run to replace him on the PNL side?

IRES poll -
PSD - 35%
PNL - 27%
USR - 14%
AUR - 14%
UDMR - 5%
All others - 5%

Should these be the results of the next election, the incumbent government would lose its majority, and a PSD-AUR cabinet would be formed.

When is the next election?

[Lechasseur]

So, did Citu succeed in ousting Orban? And what is the future for the PNL's leadership looking like heading into 2024 when President Iohannis steps down? Who's best positioned to run to replace him on the PNL side?


When is the next election?

1. The vote will take place on September 25th, so still unknown. And on replacing Iohannis - it is early but if Orban wins, he will absolutely run unless he dies/is arrested/something else kills his career. If Citu wins, I don't think he has presidential ambitions, but neither did Ponta. He will be persuaded to run by many people. If he still rejects, I could see Bihor County Chairman Ilie Bolojan running, through he is not exactly on good terms with Iohannis. So a lot of variables, but it should be more clear after September 25th.

2. Technically 2024, but the coalition is not stable enough nor any other majority clear to guarantee there won't be a snap election.

Thanks for the explanation.

Between Orban and Citu, who do you think would be better and why? How are they different? And why does Orban seem to have so much opposition within the party to begin with?

[Lechasseur]

The whole mess has unfolded today in the leading body of Parliament, where, with the tacit consent of PSD, PNL and UDMR have managed to delay the vote on the motion of no confidence for two weeks, a time during which some Parliamentary Commissions is supposed to run some bogus verification of signatures. The obvious goal of the Citu supporters is to delay any vote until after PNL has its Congress because if Citu loses a motion of no confidence before that it is very likely that he will also lose his advantage over Ludovic Orban. This would not have been possible without PSD, who left the meeting, allowing PNL to have a majority of those present. What will happen next is unclear. USR and AUR can not file another motion until this one is checked so it all comes down to PSD to do it. However, it is unclear what they want to do, as they contradict themselves every ten seconds, but it seems pretty obvious that they have some sort of deal with Citu and Iohannis.

So at this point Citu is favoured to win against Orban I'd assume?

[Lechasseur]

As amply demonstrated by the Bulgarian parties, to expect rationality in politics is somewhat irrational. However, as hard as I try, I fail to see what's in it for PSD to prop up an ailing Citu government. Surely even if they were to revive USL (and I can't see this being popular with the PSD rank-and-file), they will demand the prime ministership, maybe not for Ciolacu, but for somebody associated with the party - especially with the EU recovery plan funds coming round soon-ish.

You mentioned a potential Dragnea comeback - is it realistic?

Their main reason for existing. Money. PSD Mayors, County Chairmans, and businessmen would make good use out of the 50 billion about to be distributed completely arbitrarily by the Ministry of Development (this is the thing for which USR left). Also, PSD would have some control over the government, sabotaging it at every move while filling the lower ranks of the bureaucratic apparatus with cronies. The alternative would be either PNL governing by itself indefinitely or Citu going away and being replaced by someone better (that is a given because anyone would be better), meaning the government may start recovering. However, the electoral costs of such a move and the boost it would give AUR and other splinters (would it not be hilarious if both Dragnea and Ponta come back?) is too risky for them. Where I think this is headed is a compromise - PSD helps Citu delay the motion only until after the PNL Congress in exchange for money. But this may be too rational, as you have said.

There are a lot of rumors that Dragnea, together with one of the political stars of our country, former Senate Chairman Teodor Melescanu, will create a party called ApR (Alliance for Romania), reviving the old party of Melescanu from 2000. Even Ciolacu warned PSDers in some meetings about this possibility. I do not know whether it will be in this form or this year, but knowing him, I expect him to get active again soon.

What would that party be like?

[Lechasseur]

So today the unofficial fight for the leadership of PNL is now public. Prime Minister Citu has declared that he will run against current leader Ludovic Orban during the Congress, which will occur in September.

It is for now a toss-up. Ludovic Orban may be a slight favorite due to how long he has been in the party leadership (meaning by now the local structures are stacked with proteges and loyalists), an advantage expressed by the fact that out of 42 county leaders, 36 had endorsed him at the beginning of the year. However, that seemingly huge advantage is very vulnerable. Many of those county leaders are only acting and could be replaced at any time, their support may not translate into actual votes from the county delegates or they themselves may change their mind under the prospect of more funding from the government.

The PM has support from the anti-Orban wing of the party, Ministers, various power brokers in the party, and the influential Mayor of Cluj Emil Boc. To that one may add the unofficial support from President Iohannis, who despises Orban. If necessary, Iohannis could always make his will known to everyone before Congress, and it is unlikely PNL would disobey him.

In the first months of the year, this race appeared to be a coronation for Orban - the discontent for the Government was high even within the party. But now that the third wave of the pandemic is over, the country is re-opening, the economy is recovering and the coalition is stable - the gap between the two candidates is starting to close quickly. All bets are off for now, but contested Congresses are rare in Romania (the last one - in 2013, killed PDL). There will probably be a clear favorite by September.

September is also the month when USR is having a Congress which is also, as of right now, very contested. This will be a crucial month for the governing parties.

Why does President Iohannis hate Orban?

[Lechasseur]

So today the unofficial fight for the leadership of PNL is now public. Prime Minister Citu has declared that he will run against current leader Ludovic Orban during the Congress, which will occur in September.

It is for now a toss-up. Ludovic Orban may be a slight favorite due to how long he has been in the party leadership (meaning by now the local structures are stacked with proteges and loyalists), an advantage expressed by the fact that out of 42 county leaders, 36 had endorsed him at the beginning of the year. However, that seemingly huge advantage is very vulnerable. Many of those county leaders are only acting and could be replaced at any time, their support may not translate into actual votes from the county delegates or they themselves may change their mind under the prospect of more funding from the government.

The PM has support from the anti-Orban wing of the party, Ministers, various power brokers in the party, and the influential Mayor of Cluj Emil Boc. To that one may add the unofficial support from President Iohannis, who despises Orban. If necessary, Iohannis could always make his will known to everyone before Congress, and it is unlikely PNL would disobey him.

In the first months of the year, this race appeared to be a coronation for Orban - the discontent for the Government was high even within the party. But now that the third wave of the pandemic is over, the country is re-opening, the economy is recovering and the coalition is stable - the gap between the two candidates is starting to close quickly. All bets are off for now, but contested Congresses are rare in Romania (the last one - in 2013, killed PDL). There will probably be a clear favorite by September.

September is also the month when USR is having a Congress which is also, as of right now, very contested. This will be a crucial month for the governing parties.

Why does President Iohannis hate Orban?

Orban is the main intra-party rival of Iohannis and the presidential loyalists and the only one who has been able to form an alternative power base in PNL. In fact, conflicts between Orban and Iohannis date from as far back as 2014, when, after winning the presidential election, Iohannis tried to impose his protege Alina Gorghiu as the leader of PNL and was opposed by Orban. Then, in 2017, Orban won by defeating the presidential lackey Busoi. The two had put their fight aside for a while, but after Orban became PM, he proved uncontrollable and did whatever he wanted with no regard for Iohannis. Citu proved himself to be much more submissive and any new Prime Minister, other than Orban, would lack the authority inside the party to disobey Iohannis.

Who do you prefer between Iohannis and Orban yourself?

[Lechasseur]

It looks like Romania's going to become like Belgium in 2010-2011 where it could not form a government for ages

[Lechasseur]

At anyrate at this point the PNL clearly deserve to lose government/the next election.

And I always had a soft spot for them up to this point.

[Lechasseur]

At anyrate at this point the PNL clearly deserve to lose government/the next election.

And I always had a soft spot for them up to this point.

I am someone who has never voted PNL and never would have in any election even from before I got my voting right. But they managed to break even my very low expectations.

However, you said they deserve to lose the next election. I think you are optimistic in presuming they will exist by then in order to lose it. PNTCD and PDL were far stronger parties than PNL is right now, and yet they only barely survived to the next election only to get trounced and die quickly thereafter. I think this is a record PNL has all chances to break.

Yeah I can see that, it seems like it was Iohannis's popularity the one thing that got them anywhere (and i actually quite liked him until this fiasco), and it seems like he's screwing that up now

I agree they never had the natural strength of PNTCD or PDL (the former from my low knowledge of Romanian political history seems like it may have been most aligned with me ideologically)

[Lechasseur]

At anyrate at this point the PNL clearly deserve to lose government/the next election.

And I always had a soft spot for them up to this point.

I am someone who has never voted PNL and never would have in any election even from before I got my voting right. But they managed to break even my very low expectations.

However, you said they deserve to lose the next election. I think you are optimistic in presuming they will exist by then in order to lose it. PNTCD and PDL were far stronger parties than PNL is right now, and yet they only barely survived to the next election only to get trounced and die quickly thereafter. I think this is a record PNL has all chances to break.

Yeah I can see that, it seems like it was Iohannis's popularity the one thing that got them anywhere (and i actually quite liked him until this fiasco), and it seems like he's screwing that up now

I agree they never had the natural strength of PNTCD or PDL (the former from my low knowledge of Romanian political history seems like it may have been most aligned with me ideologically)

Yes, PNTCD (which I think was the most aligned ideologically with you too if you are some kind of moderate conservative) and PDL were strong parties who were basically victims of the bad times in which they came to power. They won elections they would have been better off losing. The 2009 presidential election was such a bloody obvious poisoned chalice I simply can't believe Basescu didn't see it. The situation right now is complicated, but it is nowhere near that bad, and PNL is just unravelling because of their greed and incompetence. They didn't even have such a strong base in the first place, they never got 30% in their entire existence.

My understanding is the PNTCD were Christian Democrats (which I identify myself as), PDL were more generic conservatives, and PNL were historically right-liberals, correct?

Well, tbf, it basically seems like until the last decade every election was basically a poisened chalice in Romania, so you have to win at some point even if there are bad consequences. No point in existing if you're never in power.

But yeah I agree, PNL is the only one of the bunch where their demise is totally their fault.

[Lechasseur]

So given you think that PNL won't exist much longer, what do you think replaces it? How does the Romanian political landscape get reshaped?