OK-5: Horn of Life

[SnowLabrador]

Is there a megathread for OK-5 right now? If not, this is the title I came up with.

It'll for sure be the most watched race in the state, as Kendra Horn (D) fights for a second term.

[terp40hitch]

Lean R

[136or142]

Lean R

This district is based in Oklahoma City which has been trending Democratic for some time anyway.  Certainly Lean D.

[Young Conservative]

Lean R

This district is based in Oklahoma City which has been trending Democratic for some time anyway.  Certainly Lean D.

Calling a Trump +10 district lean D is insanity.

[Politician]

Wait would Atlas be calling a Clinton +13 district where Trump got a lower % than Romney, but voted for the Republican governor candidate by 9% as the state became 24% less Republican and elected a Republican congressperson on their coattails Lean R?

Just asking.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

🤷🏻‍♂️
https://twitter.com/SoonerPoll/status/1159187251596857344?s=20

[Landslide Lyndon]

People keep forgetting that Edmondson carried this district by 10 points while he was losing statewide by 12. Horn's win wasn't an anomaly, the voters are clearly willing to vote Democratic downballot.

[Gracile]

Horn is certainly the underdog here, but I can see her possibly keeping her loss respectable (mid-single digits or so).

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

People should underestimate Horn at their caution. Her win wasn’t on anybody’s radar in 2018, and she represents a district with parts of OKC and its suburbs... all things that trended Democrat, just like suburbs and cities everywhere else in the nation.

[terp40hitch]

Lean R

This district is based in Oklahoma City which has been trending Democratic for some time anyway.  Certainly Lean D.

It’s been going Democratic but it is far from a Democratic district, it’s R+10 and Horn only won by one point in a D+7 year so its far from Lean D unless you are excepting a D+6 year which is unlikely in a presidential year.

[ON Progressive]

Lean R

This district is based in Oklahoma City which has been trending Democratic for some time anyway.  Certainly Lean D.

It’s been going Democratic but it is far from a Democratic district, it’s R+10 and Horn only won by one point in a D+7 year so its far from Lean D unless you are excepting a D+6 year which is unlikely in a presidential year.

Kendra Horn can definitely win in a less than D+6 year. Her district is trending D at a good clip and that can make up for a weaker national environment.

Someone on Atlas of all forums should know that uniform swing isn't a thing.

[Pandaguineapig]

Lean R, Trump will still likely win this seat by close to 10 points and Bice is close to the best Republican candidate for this seat. Still this seat is almost certainly a rental for whoever wins as the seat is gonna get nuked in 2022

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Lean R

This district is based in Oklahoma City which has been trending Democratic for some time anyway.  Certainly Lean D.

It’s been going Democratic but it is far from a Democratic district, it’s R+10 and Horn only won by one point in a D+7 year so its far from Lean D unless you are excepting a D+6 year which is unlikely in a presidential year.

Why is D+6 unlikely because it’s a presidential year?  2008 was D+11.

[😥]

Tossup/Tilt D

[beesley]

Tossup/Tilt D

Isn't Bice polling and fundraising behind someone else now?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Wait would Atlas be calling a Clinton +13 district where Trump got a lower % than Romney, but voted for the Republican governor candidate by 9% as the state became 24% less Republican and elected a Republican congressperson on their coattails Lean R?

Just asking.

Huh?

The suburbs are trending D. Get over it. Tilt R/Toss-Up

[Yellowhammer]

Likely R, and that’s being generous to Horn.

[BuckeyeNut]

Lean D.

[lfromnj]

Lean R, its still pretty Republican and isn't trending that blue etc but I wouldn't be shocked if Kendra Horn becomes Rod Blum 2.0 either.

[terp40hitch]

Wait would Atlas be calling a Clinton +13 district where Trump got a lower % than Romney, but voted for the Republican governor candidate by 9% as the state became 24% less Republican and elected a Republican congressperson on their coattails Lean R?

Just asking.

Huh?

The suburbs are trending D. Get over it. Tilt R/Toss-Up

I really hate every time somebody says suburbs are trending D, yea for the last two elections suburbs went more Democratic mostly because Trump but Before that there was no trending D, many trended R for Romney and in the 2014 midterms

[morgieb]

People keep forgetting that Edmondson carried this district by 10 points while he was losing statewide by 12. Horn's win wasn't an anomaly, the voters are clearly willing to vote Democratic downballot.

Although at the same time Trump will probably win Oklahoma by more than 22 points. It will be close though.

[Frenchrepublican]

🤷🏻‍♂️
https://twitter.com/SoonerPoll/status/1159187251596857344?s=20

They give Trump a 58% favourability rate (statewide), it seems quite low considering that in 2016 he won 2/3 of the vote.

[wbrocks67]

The suburbs are only getting bluer, so for anyone to have this as anything but a tossup doesn't make much sense.

[Frenchrepublican]

As of now I would rate this district as Tilt R / tossup

Two points

On the one hand Trump won this district by double digits in 2016 and even if this district will probably trend D in 2020, Trump will likely win it again by a big margin ; on the other hand this district is very urban/suburban and Oklahoma County is one of the few place in the state where democrats have a true growth potential.

Concerning 2020, it's clear that Horn is vulnerable, republicans have a bunch of good candidates, Horn is not a conservative democrat by most standards, Trump will likely give some coattails effects to the republican candidate, but Horn is still more likely to win than Peterson or Brindisi

[Strudelcutie4427]

The suburbs are only getting bluer, so for anyone to have this as anything but a tossup doesn't make much sense.

She won’t have a lazy opponent this time and OKC is getting chopped post 2020