OK-5: Horn of Life

[jamestroll]

As of now I would rate this district as Tilt R / tossup

Two points

On the one hand Trump won this district by double digits in 2016 and even if this district will probably trend D in 2020, Trump will likely win it again by a big margin ; on the other hand this district is very urban/suburban and Oklahoma County is one of the few place in the state where democrats have a true growth potential.

Concerning 2020, it's clear that Horn is vulnerable, republicans have a bunch of good candidates, Horn is not a conservative democrat by most standards, Trump will likely give some coattails effects to the republican candidate, but Horn is still more likely to win than Peterson or Brindisi

This times 1000!

It would not be stunning if within a decade if Oklahoma County begins to vote double digits for the Democrats for local and statewide races and consistently for Democratic presidential candidates. It may end up being the Oklahoma Democratic party.

I disagree with Peterson being dead on arrival that some on the forum think but I am thinking Kendra Horn has a slightly better chance at re-election.

[Gass3268]

Trumps approval is at -17 in OK-05

41% Approve
58% Disapprove

[see page 58 in the link]

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Trumps approval is at -17 in OK-05

41% Approve
58% Disapprove

[see page 58 in the link]

Glorious news. Kickass Kendra ain't going down without a fight.

Lean D.

[lfromnj]

Trumps approval is at -17 in OK-05

41% Approve
58% Disapprove

[see page 58 in the link]

Glorious news. Kickass Kendra ain't going down without a fight.

Lean D.

Its a sub 100 size sample lol.

[terp40hitch]

The suburbs are only getting bluer, so for anyone to have this as anything but a tossup doesn't make much sense.

Suburbs are turning more blue if we follow the trends of the past two election cycles but winning a pretty red district in midterms is much different then winning when the presidents on the ballot and when you have challengers that can win back some suburban votes (middle aged, white, women) so it’s not so crazy to say Horns district is Lean R.

[YE]

The suburbs are only getting bluer, so for anyone to have this as anything but a tossup doesn't make much sense.

Suburbs are turning more blue if we follow the trends of the past two election cycles but winning a pretty red district in midterms is much different then winning when the presidents on the ballot and when you have challengers that can win back some suburban votes (middle aged, white, women) so it’s not so crazy to say Horns district is Lean R.

The thing is in the age of rising polarization, they can't.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Wait would Atlas be calling a Clinton +13 district where Trump got a lower % than Romney, but voted for the Republican governor candidate by 9% as the state became 24% less Republican and elected a Republican congressperson on their coattails Lean R?

Just asking.

Huh?

The suburbs are trending D. Get over it. Tilt R/Toss-Up

I really hate every time somebody says suburbs are trending D, yea for the last two elections suburbs went more Democratic mostly because Trump but Before that there was no trending D, many trended R for Romney and in the 2014 midterms

Yah this

[YE]

Wait would Atlas be calling a Clinton +13 district where Trump got a lower % than Romney, but voted for the Republican governor candidate by 9% as the state became 24% less Republican and elected a Republican congressperson on their coattails Lean R?

Just asking.

Huh?

The suburbs are trending D. Get over it. Tilt R/Toss-Up

I really hate every time somebody says suburbs are trending D, yea for the last two elections suburbs went more Democratic mostly because Trump but Before that there was no trending D, many trended R for Romney and in the 2014 midterms

Last time I checked Donald Trump is still in office and will still be in the 2020 election.

[InheritTheWind]

Toss Up, but slightly closer to Lean D than Lean R.

[Gass3268]

The suburbs are only getting bluer, so for anyone to have this as anything but a tossup doesn't make much sense.

Suburbs are turning more blue if we follow the trends of the past two election cycles but winning a pretty red district in midterms is much different then winning when the presidents on the ballot and when you have challengers that can win back some suburban votes (middle aged, white, women) so it’s not so crazy to say Horns district is Lean R.

So it will be worse? Polling shows Trump is very unpopular in this district,

[Young Conservative]

The suburbs are only getting bluer, so for anyone to have this as anything but a tossup doesn't make much sense.

Suburbs are turning more blue if we follow the trends of the past two election cycles but winning a pretty red district in midterms is much different then winning when the presidents on the ballot and when you have challengers that can win back some suburban votes (middle aged, white, women) so it’s not so crazy to say Horns district is Lean R.

So it will be worse? Polling shows Trump is very unpopular in this district,

Link to this poll you mention? Trump won this seat by 10.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The suburbs are only getting bluer, so for anyone to have this as anything but a tossup doesn't make much sense.

Suburbs are turning more blue if we follow the trends of the past two election cycles but winning a pretty red district in midterms is much different then winning when the presidents on the ballot and when you have challengers that can win back some suburban votes (middle aged, white, women) so it’s not so crazy to say Horns district is Lean R.

So it will be worse? Polling shows Trump is very unpopular in this district,

Link to this poll you mention? Trump won this seat by 10.

Seriously, it's posted at the top of this page.

[ON Progressive]

Wait would Atlas be calling a Clinton +13 district where Trump got a lower % than Romney, but voted for the Republican governor candidate by 9% as the state became 24% less Republican and elected a Republican congressperson on their coattails Lean R?

Just asking.

Huh?

The suburbs are trending D. Get over it. Tilt R/Toss-Up

I really hate every time somebody says suburbs are trending D, yea for the last two elections suburbs went more Democratic mostly because Trump but Before that there was no trending D, many trended R for Romney and in the 2014 midterms

Suburbs have actually been trending D for a long time, it's not just a 2016 thing. There's a few examples I could use, but I'll just use Oklahoma County since it's relevant to the thread.

Oklahoma County, OK:
2004 - Bush +28 (R+26)
2008 - McCain +16 (R+23)
2012 - Romney +16 (R+20)
2016 - Trump +11 (R+14)

It was already slowly trending Democratic during the Obama years, it was just accelerated by Trump.

[here2view]

Lean R. I think Horn is in a better position than Cunningham however. She can absolutely win re-election.

[Gass3268]

The suburbs are only getting bluer, so for anyone to have this as anything but a tossup doesn't make much sense.

Suburbs are turning more blue if we follow the trends of the past two election cycles but winning a pretty red district in midterms is much different then winning when the presidents on the ballot and when you have challengers that can win back some suburban votes (middle aged, white, women) so it’s not so crazy to say Horns district is Lean R.

So it will be worse? Polling shows Trump is very unpopular in this district,

Link to this poll you mention? Trump won this seat by 10.

Trumps approval is at -17 in OK-05

41% Approve
58% Disapprove

[see page 58 in the link]

[beesley]

Lean R. I think Horn is in a better position than Cunningham however. She can absolutely win re-election.

Curious to know if you think that because Horn is a better incumbent or because the seat is riper. Not saying I disagree.

[here2view]

Lean R. I think Horn is in a better position than Cunningham however. She can absolutely win re-election.

Curious to know if you think that because Horn is a better incumbent or because the seat is riper. Not saying I disagree.

They're both R+10 seats where Trump won by about 14%. OK-05 isn't as white as SC-01, and it's also more urban I believe.

[terp40hitch]

Wait would Atlas be calling a Clinton +13 district where Trump got a lower % than Romney, but voted for the Republican governor candidate by 9% as the state became 24% less Republican and elected a Republican congressperson on their coattails Lean R?

Just asking.

Huh?

The suburbs are trending D. Get over it. Tilt R/Toss-Up

I really hate every time somebody says suburbs are trending D, yea for the last two elections suburbs went more Democratic mostly because Trump but Before that there was no trending D, many trended R for Romney and in the 2014 midterms

Last time I checked Donald Trump is still in office and will still be in the 2020 election.

I totally understand what you mean but election trends happen over many election cycles even decades. A trend would be Virginia is trending blue which has been shown to be happening for the past 10+ years but you can’t say the suburbs are trending blue because just four years ago with a Rubio or Bush or Kasich as nominee they probably would have continued voting strong red as in years before. A better a much more scientific accurate way to try and push the suburbs are trending blue is by saying under Trump’s control of the gop, suburbs are much less likely to support Republicans as in years past and can become a trend if not stopped by 2024.

[beesley]

So Terry Neese has raised the most money. I wonder if she or Stephanie Bice will win the primary.

[Flyersfan232]

Lean R

This district is based in Oklahoma City which has been trending Democratic for some time anyway.  Certainly Lean D.

They voted a republican for mayor and not if mayor mick runs

[HarrisonL]

Tossup.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Lean R

This district is based in Oklahoma City which has been trending Democratic for some time anyway.  Certainly Lean D.

Calling a Trump +10 district lean D is insanity.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There is a big difference between D-trending (which OK-05 most definitely is), and D-leaning.

[Gracile]

Former Oklahoma City mayor Mick Cornett (R) has ruled himself out. This is mild good news for Horn who faces a tough reelection fight:

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1182357413040492544