OK-5: Horn of Life

[ON Progressive]

Lean R

This district is based in Oklahoma City which has been trending Democratic for some time anyway.  Certainly Lean D.

It’s been going Democratic but it is far from a Democratic district, it’s R+10 and Horn only won by one point in a D+7 year so its far from Lean D unless you are excepting a D+6 year which is unlikely in a presidential year.

Kendra Horn can definitely win in a less than D+6 year. Her district is trending D at a good clip and that can make up for a weaker national environment.

Someone on Atlas of all forums should know that uniform swing isn't a thing.

[ON Progressive]

Wait would Atlas be calling a Clinton +13 district where Trump got a lower % than Romney, but voted for the Republican governor candidate by 9% as the state became 24% less Republican and elected a Republican congressperson on their coattails Lean R?

Just asking.

Huh?

The suburbs are trending D. Get over it. Tilt R/Toss-Up

I really hate every time somebody says suburbs are trending D, yea for the last two elections suburbs went more Democratic mostly because Trump but Before that there was no trending D, many trended R for Romney and in the 2014 midterms

Suburbs have actually been trending D for a long time, it's not just a 2016 thing. There's a few examples I could use, but I'll just use Oklahoma County since it's relevant to the thread.

Oklahoma County, OK:
2004 - Bush +28 (R+26)
2008 - McCain +16 (R+23)
2012 - Romney +16 (R+20)
2016 - Trump +11 (R+14)

It was already slowly trending Democratic during the Obama years, it was just accelerated by Trump.