Specter did not receive the 9%+ level of support from Democrats that Hoeffel would've needed to win. On top of that, Hoeffel ran the worst campaign since Ron Klink en route to being stomped. Toomey wouldn't have won by 11%, but I've crunched the numbers before, and Hoeffel couldn't have won without a brilliant campaign.
I would say it may have leaned Hoefell, but real close either way. Reason being the Republicans who supported Tommey in the primaries still went ahead and voted for Specter. However their would have been drastic differences in the vote total in the Philly brubs where Specter had won, Toomey would have been beat like a red headed step child. Hoeffel would have also done much better in the Wilkes Baire & Scranton areas against Toomey than he did against Specter. Also if Toomey did knock off Specter in the primary their may have wll been a backlash against Toomey for knocking off Specter from the moderates all across the state
Acctually, there was a drastic fall off of people who voted for Toomey, who either voted for Clymer (like me) or did not vote for Senate at all. Just look at the exite polls. Specter scored way better with Democrats than can be accounted for in the final results. I would say Sepcter lost 30% of the Toomey vote, which is significant.
