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  In what part of America did John Kerry seriously underpeform expectations?
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Author Topic: In what part of America did John Kerry seriously underpeform expectations?  (Read 1801 times)
marty
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« on: August 17, 2019, 04:32:29 pm »

I wasn't really following politics yet, so in the days and weeks after the election, were there areas/counties that were surprising in how good they were for bush?
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North Fulton Swing
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« Reply #1 on: August 17, 2019, 05:54:43 pm »
« Edited: August 17, 2019, 05:59:53 pm by North Fulton Swing »

The two states where he didn't do as expected: Florida (he was leading by 1-2 points in several polls going into Election Day) and North Carolina (where John Edwards didn't help whatsoever).  He was competitive in Nevada but fell short.    Interestingly, there's some discussion in the 2004 section that discusses West Virginia--in which Kerry was initially within range (how times have changed!) but pulled out resources early.

In hindsight, however, Kerry did rather well--had a significant GOTV effort (the Republicans did as well and had several anti-gay initiatives in states that got out their base).    He wasn't the greatest candidate but he did well in the debates--and he came within 118,000 votes to take Ohio and the election (and he did overperform in much of the Midwest).
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #2 on: August 17, 2019, 06:41:56 pm »

Generally he did quite poorly in the suburbs (this is why he came up short in FL, NV, and OH), and at the time there was a lot of hand-wringing about how 95 of the 100 fastest-growing counties in the country had voted Republican. Of course, those areas were all devastated by the subprime collapse and haven't been nearly as strong for the GOP since.
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marty
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« Reply #3 on: August 17, 2019, 09:03:29 pm »

The two states where he didn't do as expected: Florida (he was leading by 1-2 points in several polls going into Election Day) and North Carolina (where John Edwards didn't help whatsoever).  He was competitive in Nevada but fell short.    Interestingly, there's some discussion in the 2004 section that discusses West Virginia--in which Kerry was initially within range (how times have changed!) but pulled out resources early.

In hindsight, however, Kerry did rather well--had a significant GOTV effort (the Republicans did as well and had several anti-gay initiatives in states that got out their base).    He wasn't the greatest candidate but he did well in the debates--and he came within 118,000 votes to take Ohio and the election (and he did overperform in much of the Midwest).

wow, the 2004 election does stick out in how republican florida was (relatively speaking) compared to how it voted in 2000, 2008, 2012, and 2016.

How did bush win it by so much?
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Hydera
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« Reply #4 on: August 17, 2019, 11:48:33 pm »

The two states where he didn't do as expected: Florida (he was leading by 1-2 points in several polls going into Election Day) and North Carolina (where John Edwards didn't help whatsoever).  He was competitive in Nevada but fell short.    Interestingly, there's some discussion in the 2004 section that discusses West Virginia--in which Kerry was initially within range (how times have changed!) but pulled out resources early.

In hindsight, however, Kerry did rather well--had a significant GOTV effort (the Republicans did as well and had several anti-gay initiatives in states that got out their base).    He wasn't the greatest candidate but he did well in the debates--and he came within 118,000 votes to take Ohio and the election (and he did overperform in much of the Midwest).

wow, the 2004 election does stick out in how republican florida was (relatively speaking) compared to how it voted in 2000, 2008, 2012, and 2016.

How did bush win it by so much?



Jeb was popular then, also his responses to the three hurricanes that struck Florida that year. And also unlike other states post-2001/2002 recession, Florida's economy rebounded faster due to the housing bubble.
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buritobr
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« Reply #5 on: August 18, 2019, 09:07:52 am »

Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico

George W Bush performed very well in the hispanic vote
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #6 on: August 18, 2019, 10:25:02 pm »

The two states where he didn't do as expected: Florida (he was leading by 1-2 points in several polls going into Election Day) and North Carolina (where John Edwards didn't help whatsoever).  He was competitive in Nevada but fell short.    Interestingly, there's some discussion in the 2004 section that discusses West Virginia--in which Kerry was initially within range (how times have changed!) but pulled out resources early.

In hindsight, however, Kerry did rather well--had a significant GOTV effort (the Republicans did as well and had several anti-gay initiatives in states that got out their base).    He wasn't the greatest candidate but he did well in the debates--and he came within 118,000 votes to take Ohio and the election (and he did overperform in much of the Midwest).

wow, the 2004 election does stick out in how republican florida was (relatively speaking) compared to how it voted in 2000, 2008, 2012, and 2016.

How did bush win it by so much?

W Bush 04 was very strong with Latinos and white suburban women (the opposite of Trump 2016). In FL, he lost Miami-Dade by 7, won Osceola (Orlando suburbs) by 6, and barely lost Orange (Orlando) by 0.2. In contrast, Trump 2016 lost those counties by 30, 25, and 25, respectively. W Bush also won bellweather Hillsborough (Tampa) by 7 while Trump lost it by 7. Trump, however, outperformed Bush in the exurbs and rural areas outside of Tampa, I-5 corridor, and the Panhandle.
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #7 on: August 18, 2019, 10:28:19 pm »

The two states where he didn't do as expected: Florida (he was leading by 1-2 points in several polls going into Election Day) and North Carolina (where John Edwards didn't help whatsoever).  He was competitive in Nevada but fell short.    Interestingly, there's some discussion in the 2004 section that discusses West Virginia--in which Kerry was initially within range (how times have changed!) but pulled out resources early.

In hindsight, however, Kerry did rather well--had a significant GOTV effort (the Republicans did as well and had several anti-gay initiatives in states that got out their base).    He wasn't the greatest candidate but he did well in the debates--and he came within 118,000 votes to take Ohio and the election (and he did overperform in much of the Midwest).

I voted Bush 04, but people are way too hard on Kerry. He ran a solid campaign against an incumbent POTUS just a few years after the worst terrorist attack on U.S. soil. He crushed Bush at the first debate. But ultimately, Americans were not willing to change ship during a time of war.

W Bush underperformed with working class whites in the Midwest. The economy was recovering, but the Midwest remained weak while the Southwest, Texas, Florida, did better. Bush barely won Iowa, won Ohio by 2, and lost PA, MI, WI, MN.

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tara gilesbie
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« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2019, 05:45:13 am »

Massachusetts? He didn't get much of a home state bump.
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #9 on: August 20, 2019, 09:14:58 pm »

The West.

130,000 votes a different way would've flipped Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico...and everyone laments about Ohio for some reason.
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #10 on: August 21, 2019, 07:15:52 am »

I voted Bush 04, but people are way too hard on Kerry. He ran a solid campaign against an incumbent POTUS just a few years after the worst terrorist attack on U.S. soil. He crushed Bush at the first debate. But ultimately, Americans were not willing to change ship during a time of war.

Nah, Kerry was a pretty bad candidate in 2004. He was a bland liberal Northeastener who only won the nomination because Democrats were terrified of being called traitors and terrorist appeasers after 9/11 so went for who seemed to be the most electable: a war hero with extensive foreign policy experience! Never mind he was charisma-less, lacked geographic appeal, voted for the Iraq War ("I was for it before I was against it") and NAFTA, was liberal enough to energise the conservative base and didn't have much appeal with independents while also not being left enough to excite progressives. But all that said, 3 Purple Hearts in Nam would make him impervious to any GOP attack on his patriotism, right? Then he got swiftboated and the Kerry campaign made a complete mess of responding to the attacks which completely nullified that advantage, and let's not forget the cringeworthy "Reporting for duty" moment at the DNC. Yeah Kerry won the debates but it was a bit like Romney in 2012 where both went into the first debate 6 or 7 points behind, won it and closed the gap, but still came up short. His campaign sucked until October.

Bush was very beatable BTW, after Abu Ghraib and Fallujah happened in the spring that year his approval rating was underwater (50/50 on election day) and he was particularly vulnerable in the Midwest where voters were more anti-Iraq war and the economic recovery was bad, kinda like 2016.

One telling stat is that 70% of Kerry voters said they cast their vote against Bush rather than for Kerry.
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Skye
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« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2019, 07:48:30 am »

Massachusetts? He didn't get much of a home state bump.

What? It was the most Democratic state in 2004. IIRC the Bush campaign made it a point to win a majority of the popular vote in the election which is why Kerry didn't get more than 60% in any state, the exception being, of course, Massachusetts.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2019, 03:19:18 pm »

I mean he "only" won California by 9
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The Chad Ralph Northam
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« Reply #13 on: August 23, 2019, 07:29:02 am »

Generally he did quite poorly in the suburbs (this is why he came up short in FL, NV, and OH), and at the time there was a lot of hand-wringing about how 95 of the 100 fastest-growing counties in the country had voted Republican. Of course, those areas were all devastated by the subprime collapse and haven't been nearly as strong for the GOP since.
This is a very interesting statistic. Do you know what the results were in 2016?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #14 on: August 23, 2019, 07:28:52 pm »

Generally he did quite poorly in the suburbs (this is why he came up short in FL, NV, and OH), and at the time there was a lot of hand-wringing about how 95 of the 100 fastest-growing counties in the country had voted Republican. Of course, those areas were all devastated by the subprime collapse and haven't been nearly as strong for the GOP since.
This is a very interesting statistic. Do you know what the results were in 2016?

Haven't run the '16 GE numbers, but this should be a clue as to where to quickly summarize the data for anybody interested, assuming we are talking about increase in % of Pop vs total pop increase....

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk
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nclib
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« Reply #15 on: August 23, 2019, 09:39:29 pm »

The two states where he didn't do as expected: Florida (he was leading by 1-2 points in several polls going into Election Day) and North Carolina (where John Edwards didn't help whatsoever).

NC was one of three states (VT, SD) where Bush won a lower % of the vote in 2004 than in 2000 (though only by 0.01%).
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Interlocutor
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« Reply #16 on: August 24, 2019, 05:37:24 am »
« Edited: August 24, 2019, 04:49:30 pm by Interlocutor »

Generally he did quite poorly in the suburbs (this is why he came up short in FL, NV, and OH), and at the time there was a lot of hand-wringing about how 95 of the 100 fastest-growing counties in the country had voted Republican. Of course, those areas were all devastated by the subprime collapse and haven't been nearly as strong for the GOP since.
This is a very interesting statistic. Do you know what the results were in 2016?

I've also come across 97 of the fastest-growing counties that Bush won, which seems to be population increase between 2000 & 2004. Of those counties, Hillary won 13 of them in 2016 & Obama won 14 of them in 2008

'08 Obama won 2 more counties than Hillary in Illinois (Boone & Kendall) and Florida (Flagler & St. Lucie).

Conversely, Hillary won 2 more counties in Georgia (Gwinnett & Henry) as well as Fort Bend, Texas.
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gracile
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« Reply #17 on: August 24, 2019, 01:36:28 pm »

Kerry improved on Gore's numbers in several large, traditionally Republican suburban counties that ultimately went Democratic in 2008 (Loudoun, Chester, DuPage, Wake, Jefferson/Arapahoe, CO). Keep in mind that in a time of war, one might expect the incumbent President to improve on his performance in these strongholds. So in that sense, I wouldn't say he underperformed in those places.

I would say that Kerry most underperformed expectations in some of the Clinton/Bush states that weren't seen as totally gone in 2004 like AR, TN, WV, MO. The latter two states in particular because Kerry did contest them on a small scale.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #18 on: August 25, 2019, 05:55:01 pm »

Kerry improved on Gore's numbers in several large, traditionally Republican suburban counties that ultimately went Democratic in 2008 (Loudoun, Chester, DuPage, Wake, Jefferson/Arapahoe, CO). Keep in mind that in a time of war, one might expect the incumbent President to improve on his performance in these strongholds. So in that sense, I wouldn't say he underperformed in those places.

I would say that Kerry most underperformed expectations in some of the Clinton/Bush states that weren't seen as totally gone in 2004 like AR, TN, WV, MO. The latter two states in particular because Kerry did contest them on a small scale.

In both of these ways then, the 2004 election was effectively a continuation of the trends, beginning in the late 1980s, that have brought us to the stage where we are now. As we know, in 1988, Dukakis came within 3% of winning states like Vermont, Maryland, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and California, and flipped Washington, Oregon, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Hawaii permanently into the Democratic column. However, Bush did better than his national averages throughout the old Confederate states.

Through 1992 and 1996, as we know, Clinton flipped all of the Bush 3% or less states-and all except Pennsylvania came permanently into the Democratic column. He also made Delaware, Connecticut, and New Jersey Safe Democratic, Maine as well (up until 2012), and turned New Hampshire and Florida into tossup states. At the same time, however, Clinton slipped in the rural South and was unable to carry a majority of Southern states. Then of course, 2000 saw a major rural breakthrough for Bush, while Gore made yet more progress in urban and suburban areas. Both these trends continued in 2004.

You forgot to mention that Kerry did flip Fairfax County, Virginia, into the Democratic column, and Fairfax County has been a vital component of the Democratic ascendancy in that state.
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #19 on: August 27, 2019, 05:23:20 pm »

Kerry improved on Gore's numbers in several large, traditionally Republican suburban counties that ultimately went Democratic in 2008 (Loudoun, Chester, DuPage, Wake, Jefferson/Arapahoe, CO). Keep in mind that in a time of war, one might expect the incumbent President to improve on his performance in these strongholds. So in that sense, I wouldn't say he underperformed in those places.

I would say that Kerry most underperformed expectations in some of the Clinton/Bush states that weren't seen as totally gone in 2004 like AR, TN, WV, MO. The latter two states in particular because Kerry did contest them on a small scale.

In both of these ways then, the 2004 election was effectively a continuation of the trends, beginning in the late 1980s, that have brought us to the stage where we are now. As we know, in 1988, Dukakis came within 3% of winning states like Vermont, Maryland, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and California, and flipped Washington, Oregon, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Hawaii permanently into the Democratic column. However, Bush did better than his national averages throughout the old Confederate states.

Through 1992 and 1996, as we know, Clinton flipped all of the Bush 3% or less states-and all except Pennsylvania came permanently into the Democratic column. He also made Delaware, Connecticut, and New Jersey Safe Democratic, Maine as well (up until 2012), and turned New Hampshire and Florida into tossup states. At the same time, however, Clinton slipped in the rural South and was unable to carry a majority of Southern states. Then of course, 2000 saw a major rural breakthrough for Bush, while Gore made yet more progress in urban and suburban areas. Both these trends continued in 2004.

You forgot to mention that Kerry did flip Fairfax County, Virginia, into the Democratic column, and Fairfax County has been a vital component of the Democratic ascendancy in that state.

Yup. Kerry flipped Fairfax and Mecklenburg (Charlotte). Then Obama 08 really made serious gains in GOP suburbs, winning Loudoun, Prince William, Wake, Chester, Hamilton, San Diego. The group where Trump suffered the most relative to prior GOP candidates is college educated white suburban voters making $200K+.
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« Reply #20 on: September 10, 2019, 12:19:41 am »

Florida.
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« Reply #21 on: September 13, 2019, 06:28:49 pm »


Kerry underperformed in many solid blue states (compared to the Clintons, Gore, and Obama), which is really how Dubya won the popular vote.
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« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2019, 02:49:06 am »


Kerry underperformed in many solid blue states (compared to the Clintons, Gore, and Obama), which is really how Dubya won the popular vote.

It is astounding the number of solidly Democratic states where Bush came within single digits in 2004. Bush lost Oregon by 4%, New Jersey and Washington by 7%, Delaware by 8%, Hawaii by 9%, and California by slightly under 10%. He "only" lost Illinois and Maryland by around 10-12%, and managed to reach the 40% mark in New York, the last Republican to do so. And of course, Bush was within single digits in Michigan, Minnesota, Maine, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania as well, in addition to the other swing states that year.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2019, 03:17:24 am »


Kerry underperformed in many solid blue states (compared to the Clintons, Gore, and Obama), which is really how Dubya won the popular vote.

It is astounding the number of solidly Democratic states where Bush came within single digits in 2004. Bush lost Oregon by 4%, New Jersey and Washington by 7%, Delaware by 8%, Hawaii by 9%, and California by slightly under 10%. He "only" lost Illinois and Maryland by around 10-12%, and managed to reach the 40% mark in New York, the last Republican to do so. And of course, Bush was within single digits in Michigan, Minnesota, Maine, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania as well, in addition to the other swing states that year.

Kerry really didnt underform by much in many of those states

OR PVI in 2004: Dem +6.6
OR PVI in 2016: Dem +8.9

NJ PVI in 2004: Dem +9.1
NJ PVI in 2016: Dem +12

DE PVI in 2004: Dem +10
DE PVI in 2016: Dem +9.3







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« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2019, 03:39:43 am »

FL, MO, WV, NJ, HI.
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