The two states where he didn't do as expected: Florida (he was leading by 1-2 points in several polls going into Election Day) and North Carolina (where John Edwards didn't help whatsoever). He was competitive in Nevada but fell short. Interestingly, there's some discussion in the 2004 section that discusses West Virginia--in which Kerry was initially within range (how times have changed!) but pulled out resources early.
In hindsight, however, Kerry did rather well--had a significant GOTV effort (the Republicans did as well and had several anti-gay initiatives in states that got out their base). He wasn't the greatest candidate but he did well in the debates--and he came within 118,000 votes to take Ohio and the election (and he did overperform in much of the Midwest).
wow, the 2004 election does stick out in how republican florida was (relatively speaking) compared to how it voted in 2000, 2008, 2012, and 2016.
How did bush win it by so much?
Jeb was popular then, also his responses to the three hurricanes that struck Florida that year. And also unlike other states post-2001/2002 recession, Florida's economy rebounded faster due to the housing bubble.
