Is there any voting bloc that likes free trade? If so, where?
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  Is there any voting bloc that likes free trade? If so, where?
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Author Topic: Is there any voting bloc that likes free trade? If so, where?  (Read 1846 times)
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
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« Reply #25 on: August 29, 2019, 08:59:34 PM »

Washington state, as the most dependent state in the nation on international commerce, is pro-free trade. Estimates are that 40% of jobs in the state are dependent on international trade.

Meanwhile, there's quite a lot of press to reinforce positive perceptions, ex:
https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/international-trade-has-raised-washington-states-prosperity/

Now.. there's a lot of criticism in progressive circles due to lack of environmental and labor protections in other countries, but that's more of a critique in terms of how to evolve the model.

This was similar to the point I made earlier regarding Oregon, in that theoretical support for "Free Trade" tends to be higher in places where a large proportion of the population is engaged in generally decent paying primarily export-based States.

Aerospace has historically been the foundation of Washington State's economy with relatively little global international companies able to compete (Although the % of workers employed by Boeing is much much lower than ever there are still a ton of people in Seattle that retired with decent Union pensions, etc....).

"Unfair Trade" tends to evoke more dramatic negative opinions, since it correlates directly with either a past historic massive loss of American jobs, current perceived "threats" to job security, or even potential future threats.

https://globein.com/blog/fair-trade-vs-free-trade/

Now, if we look at Labor & Environmental standards, we saw once of the largest recent mass movements in US History in 1999 against the policies of the World Trade Organization in Seattle Washington, we saw a mixture of Conventional, Disruptive, and even Militant Social Movement tactics during the "Battle of Seattle", the vast majority of activists were local residents.

https://globein.com/blog/fair-trade-vs-free-trade/

So at the large Tech plant where I currently work, we have seen massive layoffs over the past few decades as a direct result of US Trade Policy, where various companies raced to get a foot in the market of Manufacturing Business Process Outsourcing opportunities in Asia.

Still, workers at the plant are now vulnerable from current supply-chain disruption directly caused by the current President's trade policies, where potentially some subcontract part suppliers might have factories impacted (indirect materials). The cost of sourcing and qualifying certain key components from alternative vendors takes an extremely long time period, because Global Brands need to ensure they meet the quality expectations of customers.

Competitors that might have operations not impacted, might now have a comparative advantage.

This is part of the reason why the Tech sector is freaking out with the current President's erratic trade policy positions regarding China.

Trump's style of negotiations might work in the world of real estate and for his political brand, but it doesn't work well in the world of large companies, where these types of major financial decisions have extremely long-lead time....
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #26 on: August 31, 2019, 02:40:13 PM »

1. Border communities

2. Urban upper middle class, particularly in service industries that are not particularly vulnerable to outsourcing/automation and particularly families with household employees.  Think of a lawyer married to a software engineer in Silicon Valley.

3. Commodity producers, but this is not showing up much in voting patterns because most still have other, stronger reasons for supporting Republicans, e.g. oilmen, socially conservative farmers.
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coolface1572
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« Reply #27 on: November 06, 2019, 10:43:28 PM »

Educated suburban folks. Also farmers.
Definitely this. The Mccain-Romney-Clinton counties were all suburbs with decent minority populations and many college educated whites.
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