LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[Pericles]

I think Edwards can eke this out but its gonna be a close one got this some polls show him taking 12% of Abraham's support already

The poll I saw had him taking 12% of Abraham's support with 18% of Abraham's support being undecided.

And it remains to be seen if this number of 12% is not inflated by the fact that the poll was done before the end of the primary.

Well that's possible, but it's also possible that at least some of the undecideds go to JBE. JBE didn't get crushed with undecideds in 2015, and while undecideds do usually break Republican it's not as clear cut as the Republican poll numbers plus all undecideds plus maybe another few points, except perhaps in Kentucky.

[Tender Branson]

JBE talks like a rapper:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnBelforLA/status/1184263216727117824

[Calthrina950]

If Edwards wins this year, I wouldn't be surprised if it is decades before a Democrat prevails here again.

[Skill and Chance]

If Edwards wins this year, I wouldn't be surprised if it is decades before a Democrat prevails here again.

I'm not so sure about that.  There's a viable urban/suburban path to a statewide win if the New Orleans suburbs move left enough.  Breaking records in New Orleans and Baton Rouge was already a substantial part of how JBE got elected in 2015.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1184578806155284482?s=20

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1184578806155284482?s=20

If Edwards wins reelection, this is what will save him.

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1184578806155284482?s=20

If When Edwards wins reelection, this is what will save him.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1184578806155284482?s=20

If When Edwards wins reelection, this is what will save him.

You seem to be supremely confident about his chances. Given the ongoing trends of polarization, we cannot be certain about the outcome of this race. Edwards is favored, but it is not an automatic win for him.

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1184578806155284482?s=20

If When Edwards wins reelection, this is what will save him.

You seem to be supremely confident about his chances. Given the ongoing trends of polarization, we cannot be certain about the outcome of this race. Edwards is favored, but it is not an automatic win for him.

Edwards:  51.7%
Rispone:  48.3%

That's my current prediction for how the runoff shapes up.  A tighter-than-expected win for Edwards, but still quite comfortable given the two-way nature of the race.  Rispone has a lot of work to do consolidating Abraham's supporters, and Edwards performed better this year than he did in the first round of 2015. 

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1184578806155284482?s=20

If When Edwards wins reelection, this is what will save him.

You seem to be supremely confident about his chances. Given the ongoing trends of polarization, we cannot be certain about the outcome of this race. Edwards is favored, but it is not an automatic win for him.

Edwards:  51.7%
Rispone:  48.3%

That's my current prediction for how the runoff shapes up.  A tighter-than-expected win for Edwards, but still quite comfortable given the two-way nature of the race.  Rispone has a lot of work to do consolidating Abraham's supporters, and Edwards performed better this year than he did in the first round of 2015. 

This is certainly true, but Abraham's endorsement and the inevitable Trump rally will bolster Rispone. Again, I will agree that Edwards is favored, and his win would prevent 2019 from being a Democratic lockout at the gubernatorial level, as Bevin and Reeves are virtually guaranteed to win at this point.

[jamestroll]

What is funny is that it is fairly likely that Jon Bel Edwards wins by the same margin as Blanco did in the 2003 run off but with a map nearly inversed. haha



Edwards will have to carry most of the parishes around New Orleans that voted to Jindal.

If he is losing the St Charles Parish by more than 1 or 2% in early returns it is probably over.

[lfromnj]

What is funny is that it is fairly likely that Jon Bel Edwards wins by the same margin as Blanco did in the 2003 run off but with a map nearly inversed. haha



Edwards will have to carry most of the parishes around New Orleans that voted to Jindal.

If he is losing the St Charles Parish by more than 1 or 2% in early returns it is probably over.

I wonder why la Salle's voted for blanco

[ElectionsGuy]

Here are county ratings I made for all three races.



And I should tell you what I'm currently expecting as well so it makes sense...

KY: 52.0-44.5 Bevin (slightly worse margin than last time, but the county swings are going to be ridiculous)

LA: 50.5-49.5 Edwards

MS: 53.5-45.5 Reeves (almost exact margin of MS special senate race. Counties are exactly the same too)

[Frenchrepublican]

Here are county ratings I made for all three races.



And I should tell you what I'm currently expecting as well so it makes sense...

KY: 52.0-44.5 Bevin (slightly worse margin than last time, but the county swings are going to be ridiculous)

LA: 50.5-49.5 Edwards

MS: 53.5-45.5 Reeves (almost exact margin of MS special senate race. Counties are exactly the same too)

It seems fairly realistic.

[Calthrina950]

What is funny is that it is fairly likely that Jon Bel Edwards wins by the same margin as Blanco did in the 2003 run off but with a map nearly inversed. haha



Edwards will have to carry most of the parishes around New Orleans that voted to Jindal.

If he is losing the St Charles Parish by more than 1 or 2% in early returns it is probably over.

I wonder why la Salle's voted for blanco

Jindal's race, probably. LaSalle Parish, as you know, is Louisiana's most Republican parish, and it's most racist one.

[Calthrina950]

Here are county ratings I made for all three races.



And I should tell you what I'm currently expecting as well so it makes sense...

KY: 52.0-44.5 Bevin (slightly worse margin than last time, but the county swings are going to be ridiculous)

LA: 50.5-49.5 Edwards

MS: 53.5-45.5 Reeves (almost exact margin of MS special senate race. Counties are exactly the same too)

You might be too optimistic with Beshear's chances in Kentucky. I'm not sure if Elliott County will vote Democratic at this point.

[Oryxslayer]

Here are county ratings I made for all three races.



And I should tell you what I'm currently expecting as well so it makes sense...

KY: 52.0-44.5 Bevin (slightly worse margin than last time, but the county swings are going to be ridiculous)

LA: 50.5-49.5 Edwards

MS: 53.5-45.5 Reeves (almost exact margin of MS special senate race. Counties are exactly the same too)

You might be too optimistic with Beshear's chances in Kentucky. I'm not sure if Elliott County will vote Democratic at this point.

I would say that if Beshear gets 45% he's carried much more then this map, but they are not the rurals. The Cincinnati suburbs and multitude of smaller urban areas in the west of the state would be blue.

[Frenchrepublican]

Here are county ratings I made for all three races.



And I should tell you what I'm currently expecting as well so it makes sense...

KY: 52.0-44.5 Bevin (slightly worse margin than last time, but the county swings are going to be ridiculous)

LA: 50.5-49.5 Edwards

MS: 53.5-45.5 Reeves (almost exact margin of MS special senate race. Counties are exactly the same too)

You might be too optimistic with Beshear's chances in Kentucky. I'm not sure if Elliott County will vote Democratic at this point.

He will carry it without any doubt. Last year even the sacrificial lamb who ran against Hal Rogers and who barely won 20% won close to 45% in Elliott.

[2016]

Here are county ratings I made for all three races.



And I should tell you what I'm currently expecting as well so it makes sense...

KY: 52.0-44.5 Bevin (slightly worse margin than last time, but the county swings are going to be ridiculous)

LA: 50.5-49.5 Edwards

MS: 53.5-45.5 Reeves (almost exact margin of MS special senate race. Counties are exactly the same too)

It seems fairly realistic.

Give me a Break! Beshear will win a lot more than just 6 Counties. Jesus.

[Frenchrepublican]

Here are county ratings I made for all three races.



And I should tell you what I'm currently expecting as well so it makes sense...

KY: 52.0-44.5 Bevin (slightly worse margin than last time, but the county swings are going to be ridiculous)

LA: 50.5-49.5 Edwards

MS: 53.5-45.5 Reeves (almost exact margin of MS special senate race. Counties are exactly the same too)

It seems fairly realistic.

Give me a Break! Beshear will win a lot more than just 6 Counties. Jesus.

Maybe he will win Marion county, but you're gullible if you think that Beshear won't collapse in rural areas.

[Politician]

Beshear definitely wins Jefferson, Fayette, Franklin and probably wins Elliott, Nicholas, Marion, Woodford, Rowan, Nelson, Bourbon.

[Donerail]

if trends are indeed real, shouldn't Beshear be winning Kenton, Campbell & Warren even as he's resoundingly defeated statewide?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

if trends are indeed real, shouldn't Beshear be winning Kenton, Campbell & Warren even as he's resoundingly defeated statewide?

Yes. Especially with an unpopular governor

[Calthrina950]

Here are county ratings I made for all three races.



And I should tell you what I'm currently expecting as well so it makes sense...

KY: 52.0-44.5 Bevin (slightly worse margin than last time, but the county swings are going to be ridiculous)

LA: 50.5-49.5 Edwards

MS: 53.5-45.5 Reeves (almost exact margin of MS special senate race. Counties are exactly the same too)

You might be too optimistic with Beshear's chances in Kentucky. I'm not sure if Elliott County will vote Democratic at this point.

He will carry it without any doubt. Last year even the sacrificial lamb who ran against Hal Rogers and who barely won 20% won close to 45% in Elliott.

But 2018 was the first time ever that Rogers won Elliott County against a Democratic opponent. And as we've seen with the Louisiana jungle primary and the NC-09 special election, rural trends against the Democrats are proceeding in full force.

[Frenchrepublican]

Beshear definitely wins Jefferson, Fayette, Franklin and probably wins Elliott, Nicholas, Marion, Woodford, Rowan, Nelson, Bourbon.

Even Conway lost them, unless Beshear wins statewide he will lose both of them.