LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[SnowLabrador]

It's so annoying that this race is tight but nobody up here even considered voting out God-Emperor Charlie Baker.

885,770 people did.

And I was one of them! Unfortunately, people here just REALLY love Baker for some reason.

[LabourJersey]

To move back to an actual discussion about LA, does anyone else find it insanely weird how Eddie Rispone doesn't have a Wikipedia page? He's been the nominee for weeks and not a single person from his campaign or where ever cares to make an article about him? I've never seen a modern major-party nominee for a gov election not have a page.

[Frenchrepublican]

Another good day for Edwards in terms of early voting

164k ballots casted


D % : 45.67%
R % : 39.51%

Whites % : 67.07%
Blacks % : 29.75%

[Frenchrepublican]

Here is how things look compared to previous elections after two days of early voting

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1191355470495092736?s=20

[Tender Branson]

Presidential election style early voting.

Not bad ...

[MT Treasurer]

Thoughts on this one after what happened today? I’ll stick with Tilt/Lean D JBE +2 for now, but far closer to Tossup than Likely D.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm feeling a little bit more positive about it now. It's a tossup now, rather than lean R as I previously thought. I don't expect either Edwards or Rispone to win by more than two or three points though.

[ElectionsGuy]

Thoughts on this one after what happened today? I’ll stick with Tilt/Lean D JBE +2 for now, but far closer to Tossup than Likely D.

I think if anything the Mississippi race is far better of a comparison in terms of what kind of race this will be than Kentucky's race. More similar electorate and more similar candidates.

[Cinemark]

Thoughts on this one after what happened today? I’ll stick with Tilt/Lean D JBE +2 for now, but far closer to Tossup than Likely D.

I think if anything the Mississippi race is far better of a comparison in terms of what kind of race this will be than Kentucky's race. More similar electorate and more similar candidates.

Except the Mississippi race apparently has terrible turnout. The early Louisiana turnout, however, has been incredibly strong.

[Oryxslayer]

Tonight shows that this race is orbiting around tossup/tilt, and if you seriously deviate from that, you better have a good justification. Both sides have data they can point to, but it all looks like it cancels out - at least at this stage.

[windjammer]

Hood's crossover with rural whites is encouraging to JBE. But if black turnout is as bad as in MS, he's gone.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Beshear can win in KY then Bel Edwards should be able to win in LA. Lean D

[Mr. Smith]

If Beshear Bevin can win in KY then Bel Edwards Vitter should be able to win in LA. Lean D R

This exact logic was applicable four years ago, and I said just as much...look what happened.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Beshear Bevin can win in KY then Bel Edwards Vitter should be able to win in LA. Lean D R

This exact logic was applicable four years ago, and I said just as much...look what happened.

LA is more Dem than KY (and actually has as far back since 96) and Dems have a popular incumbent on the ballot in LA

[Tender Branson]

Edwards probably wins by a Reeves-like margin now.

[Gass3268]

Hood's crossover with rural whites is encouraging to JBE. But if black turnout is as bad as in MS, he's gone.

Early vote suggests that that black turnout is better than it was in the primary.

[Skill and Chance]

After Beshear's win and Reeves winning by less than 6, and with the runoff early voting looking more Dem friendly than the primary, I think Edwards will be OK.  Tempted to move to Lean D.

[One Term Floridian]

Edwards should be fine. Could see him winning by as much as 6 or 7 now

[Calthrina950]

Edwards should be fine. Could see him winning by as much as 6 or 7 now

Not sure if his winning margin will be that wide, but I definitely do believe that Edwards is the slight favorite in his race. I'm thinking he will win by around 2-5% in the end.

[jamestroll]

Hood's crossover with rural whites is encouraging to JBE. But if black turnout is as bad as in MS, he's gone.

On the other hand, Louisiana has suburban areas that can and probably will save Edwards and I am hoping Edwards pulls a few local democrats win his across the finish to prevent  a supermajority for the GOP.

[Tender Branson]

Early Vote update !

Until yesterday, 295.000 have voted early.

386.000 in total for the 1st round.

There are 3 days left (Thu, Fri and Sat) and an average of 80.000 votes are added per day, so more than 500.000 votes are possible.

67.7% Whites (72.0% in the 1st round)
29.6% Blacks (25.4%)

46.1% Democrats (43.7%)
39.1% Republicans (41.3%)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I am changing my mind, I think Edwards pulls this out by 50.6-49.4.

[Bidenworth2020]

Early Vote update !

Until yesterday, 295.000 have voted early.

386.000 in total for the 1st round.

There are 3 days left (Thu, Fri and Sat) and an average of 80.000 votes are added per day, so more than 500.000 votes are possible.

67.7% Whites (72.0% in the 1st round)
29.6% Blacks (25.4%)

46.1% Democrats (43.7%)
39.1% Republicans (41.3%)

Couvillion had primary EV white/black at 74-24, Dems ar 43-42.5. New update today dude.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1192415709999095808

General breakdown. I tend to think the racial data is the only 'hard' point here, with the party ID being all sorts of screwy thanks to loyal GOP dixiecrats and JBE pulling in registered R's in Metairie or other normally R suburbs.

[Gass3268]

I also saw John Couvillon say that typically there is a surge in black voters and to a lesser extent Democrats towards the end of the early vote period.