LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[Skill and Chance]

Really interesting that JBE appears to be the only Trump-era Dem who succeeded in getting Obama-level black turnout for a downballot contest. 

[Roll Roons]

Really interesting that JBE appears to be the only Trump-era Dem who succeeded in getting Obama-level black turnout for a downballot contest. 

Did Abrams and Gillum not?

[Calthrina950]

Really interesting that JBE appears to be the only Trump-era Dem who succeeded in getting Obama-level black turnout for a downballot contest.  

Did Abrams and Gillum not?

They did, but it was not enough. Abrams lost because rural and exurban white voters came out in force for Brian Kemp; she did worse than even Hillary Clinton throughout most of the state outside of the Atlanta, Columbus, Augusta, and Savannah metropolitan areas. Gillum lost not only because of white voters turning out in force in the Panhandle and the I-4 corridor (which they did), but also because he could not obtain Clinton's levels of support among Cuban and Puerto Rican voters.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Wasserman is on twitter saying he could probably call the race for JBE right now if he wanted to. says EV is disastrous for Rs

Uhhh...
I think I'll wait to see the actual results.

[voice_of_resistance]

Yeah, this is good news for Edwards, but Trump has a week to blitzkrieg the state and rile up the racists to activate their zombie chips to vote R. It ain't over till it's over.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yeah, this is good news for Edwards, but Trump has a week to blitzkrieg the state and rile up the racists to activate their zombie chips to vote R. It ain't over till it's over.

I still don't think his voters are ever not riled up. Republicans always turn out in elections. I am adamant that his rallies are incidental. They lose when Democratic voters turn out and overwhelm them in turn. I don't expect Trump-Rispone voters to necessarily be overwhelmed, but I think it's looking better for Edwards that his state will put their interests ahead of tribalistic partisanship, much like what happened in Kentucky. Of course, I am also expecting to be possibly wrong...or right the first time, since overall, I am more optimistic about this race than I was a week ago.

[Gracile]

Wasserman is on twitter saying he could probably call the race for JBE right now if he wanted to. says EV is disastrous for Rs

It's a bit early to make that kind of bold prediction. The vote on election day could be more favorable to Rispone.

[MT Treasurer]

This looks like it will play out surprisingly similar to LA-SEN 2002.

But who knows, maybe "polarization" will be enough to save the day for Rispone.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This looks like it will play out surprisingly similar to LA-SEN 2002.

LMAO I just looked it up, and Patrick Landry also ran there and got basically the same percentage and vote total XD

he did run as an indy in 2002 while in 2019 as a republican

[forgotten manatee]

MorningConsult shows JBE having a 52% approval rating in Q3 2019. When was the last time a popular governor lost re-election? Why would JBE lose when he is popular?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

MorningConsult shows JBE having a 52% approval rating in Q3 2019. When was the last time a popular governor lost re-election? Why would JBE lose when he is popular?

Because he's a Democrat in a very red state and the current Republican president has been campaigning non-stop for his opponent.

Now, JBE probably pull of a win anyway, but it shouldn't be surprising why he might not.

[Fuzzy Bear]

A mere 23 years ago, Bill Clinton carried LA 51-40.

How'd we get here?

[Holmes]

A mere 23 years ago, Bill Clinton carried LA 51-40.

How'd we get here?

The people that propelled him to victory are now either dead or Republicans.

[Nyvin]

I would say Edwards is favored to win, but I've been terrible at predictions so far this year...

[wbrocks67]

There's really no empirical evidence to show Rispone winning considering the EV vote is better for Edwards. If anything it's Lean D at this point based on all the evidence.

[Adam Griffin]

Record high turnout and record Democratic performance in EV have been seen before...only for a loss to occur anyway. For all we know, we may be heading for a 1.8m vote turnout with swarms of Democrats voting early and swarms of Republicans popping up on Election Day. It does look good by all accounts, but let's not forget the insane turnout we've been seeing in post-2016 elections and the possibility that this could just be a really high-turnout race with a severe discrepancy in when each party votes.

[Adam Griffin]

Just to highlight what was mentioned above:

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1193908835569819658

[Tender Branson]

Almost 500.000 early/postal votes now cast.

Black share has risen to 31.1%

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Just to highlight what was mentioned above:

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1193908835569819658

Why would GOP voters vote early in the primary but not in the run-off?   Or the reverse for the Democrats?

[ElectionsGuy]

Just to highlight what was mentioned above:

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1193908835569819658

Why would GOP voters vote early in the primary but not in the run-off?   Or the reverse for the Democrats?

I think what we might be seeing is somewhat significant higher turnout in the runoff than the primary, with Democrats disproportionately being the 'not primary but runoff' voters. But that would still kinda fail to answer the question. What we saw in Mississippi in 2018 (with Espy much improving from his jungle primary performance in the runoff) could be possible here or the early vote is just skewed more Democratic and this could end up being a narrow Rispone win. This race right now is very suspenseful and unpredictable.

[Adam Griffin]

Just to highlight what was mentioned above:

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1193908835569819658

Why would GOP voters vote early in the primary but not in the run-off?   Or the reverse for the Democrats?

The historical trend here I imagine is rooted in the fact that EV in LA generally lags the country in terms of adoption: only 28% of voters cast an early ballot in the 2019 primary (a majority of the country voted early in both 2016 & 2018 as I recall). I'm not even sure if AIP voting has been available for more than a few years.

LA's unique system also de facto means that we're talking about a primary versus a general election here (as opposed to one distinct primary and one distinct GE in most other states, or in the case of a state like GA, a primary, a general election and a general election runoff).

Since the election occurs on a Saturday, fewer younger and/or non-whites are obligated to vote early. Likewise, the EV has historically been disproportionately ABM, which likewise has tended to skew older and whiter pretty much everywhere (LA or otherwise).

There's presumably less pushing of likely Democrats to vote in the primary due to a greater share being low-propensity; if you can only get them to turn out once, then obviously you want that to happen in a runoff/LA-style general election (though admittedly 2019 may not have been such a situation, since JBE hitting 50 was a goal/possibility in October).

At any rate, I'm deferring to JMC's understanding of how these skewings work simply because I haven't kept track of how much more D/R the vote gets on ED in LA with each cycle. But generally and as of late, a huge surge in Democratic EV means a better performance for the GOP on ED via cannibalization and/or much higher turnout than expected.

[DINGO Joe]

Just for reference, in 2015 the A-A vote made up 26.6% in the "primary" and 29.7% in the general.  This year, it was 25.4% in the primary and 31.0 for the general.  It seems to occur in all parts of the state and in urban and rural parishes.  I know of no GOTV means to make that occur, so I have to assume that it is largely cultural.

[voice_of_resistance]

Yeah at this point I'd say its Tossup, gun to my head Edwards winning by like 1-2. Still room for things to change, especially if Trump has a rally in the next few days in the Baton Rouge/NOLA suburbs.

[Skye]

Miles has officially rated the race as Leans D for Sabato's Crystal Ball:

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/in-close-runoff-democrats-try-to-finish-strong-in-louisiana/

For those who don't know, he used to be a member of this forum.

Giving him a clear edge in the rating seems a bit confident IMO, but he does acknowledge the race is going to be very close.

[Gass3268]

Miles has officially rated the race as Leans D for Sabato's Crystal Ball:

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/in-close-runoff-democrats-try-to-finish-strong-in-louisiana/

For those who don't know, he used to be a member of this forum.

Giving him a clear edge in the rating seems a bit confident IMO, but he does acknowledge the race is going to be very close.

I believe that Crystal Ball has a policy of no Toss Ups for their last set of ratings, so their choice would be either Lean D or Lean R.