LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[DINGO Joe]

I also saw John Couvillon say that typically there is a surge in black voters and to a lesser extent Democrats towards the end of the early vote period.

Blacks have a history of voting more on the last Saturday, or maybe whites less.  Of course, given the popularity of early voting, past patterns may not be applicable.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting that the D margin between the 2015 and 2019 runoffs declined from +17 to +7, but at the same time the electorate got a lot blacker ...

[DINGO Joe]

Interesting that the D margin between the 2015 and 2019 runoffs declined from +17 to +7, but at the same time the electorate got a lot blacker ...

Each election cycle there will be fewer and fewer Dixiecrats, you register along modern lines.

[Tender Branson]

58.000 voted early yesterday, 353.000 in total now.

Black share down slightly from 29.6% to 29.5%

[Bidenworth2020]

58.000 voted early yesterday, 353.000 in total now.

Black share down slightly from 29.6% to 29.5%

DEMS IN DISARRAY

This was after Trump's rally, I might add. Considering that, a solid showing for dems.

[Xing]

Isn't today expected to be a strong day for Democrats?

[DINGO Joe]

Isn't today expected to be a strong day for Democrats?

I don't know about today, but the last Saturday traditionally has been.

[Matty]

Something to keep in mind about Saturday:

The LSU-Bama game

Half the state will be glued to TVs or at watch parties

[Politician]

Something to keep in mind about Saturday:

The LSU-Bama game

Half the state will be glued to TVs or at watch parties

Well then, it's probably even better for Edwards.

[2016]

The larger than expected Victory for Tate Reeves in neighboring MS doesn't bode well for JBE. Polarization are very well in place here.

[Not_A_Doctor]

The larger than expected Victory for Tate Reeves in neighboring MS doesn't bode well for JBE. Polarization are very well in place here.

A 5 point win for a Republican in a state that's far more racially polarized than Louisiana actually bodes quite well for Edwards.

Sure, Hood was a "strong candidate", but again, Louisiana is less racially polarized than MS and Bel Edwards is a popular incumbent. he'll win by 2-4, I think.

[2016]

The larger than expected Victory for Tate Reeves in neighboring MS doesn't bode well for JBE. Polarization are very well in place here.

A 5 point win for a Republican in a state that's far more racially polarized than Louisiana actually bodes quite well for Edwards.

Sure, Hood was a "strong candidate", but again, Louisiana is less racially polarized than MS and Bel Edwards is a popular incumbent. he'll win by 2-4, I think.

Everyone needs to know JBE is pretty much an accidential Governor. Without Vitter's Scandals Bel Edwards would never won there in 2015. He used Vitters Problems to win the Election. Rispone is a much better Candidate and D Outside Groups carpet-bombing Rispone doesn't do Edwards so called popularity any justice.

Of the 3 Republican Candidates running for Governor this year (Bevin, Reeves and Rispone) Eddie Rispone has the least baggage IMO.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Something to keep in mind about Saturday:

The LSU-Bama game

Half the state will be glued to TVs or at watch parties

I wish both teams could lose

[Donerail]

Something to keep in mind about Saturday:

The LSU-Bama game

Half the state will be glued to TVs or at watch parties

Only half?

[Politician]

Remember when posters were saying a few months back that a Dem triple sweep this year was more likely than an R sweep? LOL

This aged well.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Remember when posters were saying a few months back that a Dem triple sweep this year was more likely than an R sweep? LOL

This aged well.

Reeves won by a hell of a lot more than Beshear and probably more than JBE (assuming he wins), so yeah, a GOP sweep was definitely more likely.

[Politician]

Remember when posters were saying a few months back that a Dem triple sweep this year was more likely than an R sweep? LOL

This aged well.

Reeves won by a hell of a lot more than Beshear and probably more than JBE (assuming he wins), so yeah, a GOP sweep was definitely more likely.

Doesn't change the fact that you thought there was a 90%+ chance of a Republican sweep, and you were wrong.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Remember when posters were saying a few months back that a Dem triple sweep this year was more likely than an R sweep? LOL

This aged well.

Reeves won by a hell of a lot more than Beshear and probably more than JBE (assuming he wins), so yeah, a GOP sweep was definitely more likely.

Doesn't change the fact that you thought there was a 90%+ chance of a Republican sweep, and you were wrong.

The post you quoted had absolutely nothing to do with whatever chance there was of a Republican sweep. It was mocking the fact that people seriously believed a Dem sweep was more likely than a GOP sweep, when it clearly wasn't. The results so far have only confirmed what an absurd take that was.

[Tender Branson]

64.000 voted early yesterday, 417.000 in total now.

67.7% White
29.5% Black
  2.8% Others

55.8% Women
44.2% Men

45.6% DEMs
39.2% REPs
15.2% Others

500.000 early votes are still possible if today has above-average turnout ... (today is the last day to vote early).

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

64.000 voted early yesterday, 417.000 in total now.

67.7% White
29.5% Black
  2.8% Others

55.8% Women
44.2% Men

45.6% DEMs
39.2% REPs
15.2% Others

500.000 early votes are still possible if today has above-average turnout ... (today is the last day to vote early).

That +11.6% women-to-men gap sticks out to me.  Is that normal in early voting?

[DINGO Joe]

64.000 voted early yesterday, 417.000 in total now.

67.7% White
29.5% Black
  2.8% Others

55.8% Women
44.2% Men

45.6% DEMs
39.2% REPs
15.2% Others

500.000 early votes are still possible if today has above-average turnout ... (today is the last day to vote early).

That +11.6% women-to-men gap sticks out to me.  Is that normal in early voting?

Yes, it's reflected in voter registration too.  It's a function of comparatively short lifespan and high incarceration rates for black males.

[DINGO Joe]

64.000 voted early yesterday, 417.000 in total now.

67.7% White
29.5% Black
  2.8% Others

55.8% Women
44.2% Men

45.6% DEMs
39.2% REPs
15.2% Others

500.000 early votes are still possible if today has above-average turnout ... (today is the last day to vote early).

Early voting will also include mail-in ballots received thru the 15th, so it will almost certainly top 500,000

[Frodo]

Is there any rain in the forecast for next Saturday? 

[DINGO Joe]

Is there any rain in the forecast for next Saturday? 

Only in Northern New Orleans, or as the locals call it NoNo

[Skill and Chance]

This all looks very good for JBE when compared to the primary round.  

Primary EV was:

74% white
24% black

43% Dem
42% Rep

and JBE got 46.6%

Runoff EV is:

68% white
29.5% black

45.6% Dem
39.2% Rep

I don't know what to make of the Dem vs. Rep numbers as there are likely to be a lot of 70-year-old registered Dems in Cajun country turning out for Rispone and also a good number of 35-year-old registered Reps in Metairie and Baton Rouge turning out for JBE.  

One caveat is the primary EV was influenced by a major college football game on the October 12th election day.  College football is one of the most Republican-leaning major sports, and Primary round EV ended up being more Republican than the election day day vote, which is historically unusual.

As someone mentioned earlier, this time the big college football game is today, on the last day of EV, with a much less exciting matchup next Saturday.  If college football is indeed driving when people vote, we would expect to see a very Dem turnout today and a better election day relative to EV for Republicans in the runoff.  Even without a Dem EV surge today, this is looking like "enough" for JBE when compared to the primary EV.  

Between defeating JBE or getting a supermajority in the State House, which do you think will be easier for LA Republicans?  This has potentially important implications for redistricting, as a JBE veto of the 2021 maps could force 2 separate Dem leaning CDs in NOLA and Baton Rouge and keep Republicans structurally below a legislative supermajority through the 2020's.  After seeing the 2 suburban Trump districts flip in MS and a couple of the rural seats hold, I think JBE will be able to get his vetoes sustained in any scenario where he wins reelection.