Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 17, 2019, 06:56:10 am
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, x)
  LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 18 19 20 21 22 [23] 24 25 26 27 Print
Poll
Question: ...
#1.  
#2.  
#3.  
#4.  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 0

Calculate results by number of options selected
Author Topic: LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term  (Read 15503 times)
DINGO Joe
dingojoe
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,055
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #550 on: November 09, 2019, 10:06:12 am »

64.000 voted early yesterday, 417.000 in total now.

67.7% White
29.5% Black
  2.8% Others

55.8% Women
44.2% Men

45.6% DEMs
39.2% REPs
15.2% Others

500.000 early votes are still possible if today has above-average turnout ... (today is the last day to vote early).

Early voting will also include mail-in ballots received thru the 15th, so it will almost certainly top 500,000
Logged
Grand Mufti of Northern Virginia
Frodo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,598
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #551 on: November 09, 2019, 02:48:41 pm »

Is there any rain in the forecast for next Saturday?  Tongue
Logged
DINGO Joe
dingojoe
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,055
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #552 on: November 09, 2019, 03:12:38 pm »

Is there any rain in the forecast for next Saturday?  Tongue

Only in Northern New Orleans, or as the locals call it NoNo
Logged
Skill and Chance
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,640
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #553 on: November 09, 2019, 03:24:39 pm »

This all looks very good for JBE when compared to the primary round.  

Primary EV was:

74% white
24% black

43% Dem
42% Rep

and JBE got 46.6%

Runoff EV is:

68% white
29.5% black

45.6% Dem
39.2% Rep

I don't know what to make of the Dem vs. Rep numbers as there are likely to be a lot of 70-year-old registered Dems in Cajun country turning out for Rispone and also a good number of 35-year-old registered Reps in Metairie and Baton Rouge turning out for JBE.  

One caveat is the primary EV was influenced by a major college football game on the October 12th election day.  College football is one of the most Republican-leaning major sports, and Primary round EV ended up being more Republican than the election day day vote, which is historically unusual.

As someone mentioned earlier, this time the big college football game is today, on the last day of EV, with a much less exciting matchup next Saturday.  If college football is indeed driving when people vote, we would expect to see a very Dem turnout today and a better election day relative to EV for Republicans in the runoff.  Even without a Dem EV surge today, this is looking like "enough" for JBE when compared to the primary EV.  

Between defeating JBE or getting a supermajority in the State House, which do you think will be easier for LA Republicans?  This has potentially important implications for redistricting, as a JBE veto of the 2021 maps could force 2 separate Dem leaning CDs in NOLA and Baton Rouge and keep Republicans structurally below a legislative supermajority through the 2020's.  After seeing the 2 suburban Trump districts flip in MS and a couple of the rural seats hold, I think JBE will be able to get his vetoes sustained in any scenario where he wins reelection.
Logged
Grand Mufti of Northern Virginia
Frodo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,598
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #554 on: November 09, 2019, 03:32:08 pm »

Between defeating JBE or getting a supermajority in the State House, which do you think will be easier for LA Republicans?  This has potentially important implications for redistricting, as a JBE veto of the 2021 maps could force 2 separate Dem leaning CDs in NOLA and Baton Rouge and keep Republicans structurally below a legislative supermajority through the 2020's.  After seeing the 2 suburban Trump districts flip in MS and a couple of the rural seats hold, I think JBE will be able to get his vetoes sustained in any scenario where he wins reelection.


There is always the possibility of enough Democratic defections to effectively secure a Republican supermajority in the House even when they didn't win one outright on November 16. 
Logged
DINGO Joe
dingojoe
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,055
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #555 on: November 09, 2019, 04:45:48 pm »

This all looks very good for JBE when compared to the primary round.  

One caveat is the primary EV was influenced by a major college football game on the October 12th election day.  College football is one of the most Republican-leaning major sports, and Primary round EV ended up being more Republican than the election day day vote, which is historically unusual.


Well, we all should know that the real reason for early voting is so that Bubba can go hunting and fishing (aka drinking) on Saturday.
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,858


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #556 on: November 09, 2019, 07:53:59 pm »



FTR, the LSU coach is a JBE supporter. He's appeared in JBE football-themed ads before  hand, and it's not that hard to recognize that JBE wants to milk this for all its got.
Logged
Skill and Chance
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,640
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #557 on: November 09, 2019, 08:05:28 pm »



FTR, the LSU coach is a JBE supporter. He's appeared in JBE football-themed ads before  hand, and it's not that hard to recognize that JBE wants to milk this for all its got.

I believe there is some research showing the home team winning a big game helps incumbents.
Logged
Grand Mufti of Northern Virginia
Frodo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,598
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #558 on: November 09, 2019, 10:17:58 pm »

I mentioned earlier that Jim Hood was the last of his kind after he lost the Mississippi's governor's race as a centrist white southern Democrat with statewide appeal.  If Governor John Bel Edwards were to lose his bid for re-election, do Louisiana Democrats have anyone else who could run in 2023 or later?  Perhaps former New Orleans mayor Mitch Landrieu?  Or is their bench just as bare as their counterparts in Mississippi?  
Logged
Skill and Chance
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,640
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #559 on: November 09, 2019, 10:41:14 pm »

Dems will always have mayors/state legislators they can run because of NOLA and Baton Rouge.  If and when they get someone elected to a seat in Metairie, that person should look at running statewide in the next cycle.  Any wins going forward (including JBE if he pulls through next Saturday) are likely to be with the new urban-suburban coalition- winning NOLA and EBR near unanimously, getting a big margin out of Jefferson and Caddo, and keeping Calcasieu and St. Tammany closee.
Logged
Frenchrepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,181


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #560 on: November 10, 2019, 06:56:00 am »

https://electionstatistics.sos.la.gov/Data/Early_Voting_Statistics/Statewide/2019_1116_StatewideStats.pdf

Final early voting numbers

D : 46.2%
R : 38.2%

D advantage : D+8 (was 1.5 in the primary)

Blacks : 31%
Whites : 66%


Edwards is probably winning early voting ballots 52/48
Logged
ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,593
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: -7.65

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #561 on: November 10, 2019, 07:48:54 am »

Those numbers are very troubling to Rispone's chances. Maybe the Republican infighting is going to lower their turnout after all... Or some Democrats just sat on their ass in October.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,697
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #562 on: November 10, 2019, 09:03:12 am »

Solid numbers for JBE.

He probably wins with 53-55% now.
Logged
Frenchrepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,181


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #563 on: November 10, 2019, 10:03:54 am »

Those numbers are very troubling to Rispone's chances. Maybe the Republican infighting is going to lower their turnout after all... Or some Democrats just sat on their ass in October.

JMC analysis is here :
https://winwithjmc.com/archives/8835
Yeah, these numbers are not great, unfortunately
Logged
DINGO Joe
dingojoe
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,055
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #564 on: November 10, 2019, 10:48:19 am »

Those numbers are very troubling to Rispone's chances. Maybe the Republican infighting is going to lower their turnout after all... Or some Democrats just sat on their ass in October.

For reasons I cannot explain, there is a segment of African American voters who just don't participate in the "primary" election.
Logged
DINGO Joe
dingojoe
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,055
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #565 on: November 10, 2019, 11:00:26 am »

Dems will always have mayors/state legislators they can run because of NOLA and Baton Rouge.  If and when they get someone elected to a seat in Metairie, that person should look at running statewide in the next cycle.  Any wins going forward (including JBE if he pulls through next Saturday) are likely to be with the new urban-suburban coalition- winning NOLA and EBR near unanimously, getting a big margin out of Jefferson and Caddo, and keeping Calcasieu and St. Tammany closee.

It'n not like anyone knew who Jon Bel was before he ran anyway.
Logged
Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,769
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #566 on: November 10, 2019, 11:09:05 am »

Come on Daddy, pull through.
Logged
DINGO Joe
dingojoe
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,055
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #567 on: November 10, 2019, 11:19:20 am »

I think Abraham ran better everywhere in early voting than he did on election day in the primary because he was better organized and had establishment support while Rispone has no organization, so I guess that could be reflected here to.
Logged
Chief Justice windjammer
windjammer
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,840
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #568 on: November 10, 2019, 11:22:11 am »

I'm pessimistic about this race. I fear black turnout won't be enough.
Logged
Skill and Chance
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,640
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #569 on: November 10, 2019, 11:24:41 am »

Wow, what a shift in the EV from the primary to the runoff.  This opens up the possibility of a JBE win by 6-10, though I do expect election day voting to favor Rispone more, so probably more like a 2.5-5% JBE win in the end.  
Logged
Skill and Chance
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,640
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #570 on: November 10, 2019, 11:27:28 am »

I think Abraham ran better everywhere in early voting than he did on election day in the primary because he was better organized and had establishment support while Rispone has no organization, so I guess that could be reflected here to.

Actually the LA Oct primary was one of the rare elections where Republicans did worse in election day voting than they did in EV across the board.  That was likely influenced by college football, and the timing of the big game this time (it happened yesterday vs. on the Oct primary election day) favors a better R performance on election day vs. in EV.
Logged
DINGO Joe
dingojoe
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,055
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #571 on: November 10, 2019, 12:00:47 pm »

I think Abraham ran better everywhere in early voting than he did on election day in the primary because he was better organized and had establishment support while Rispone has no organization, so I guess that could be reflected here to.

Actually the LA Oct primary was one of the rare elections where Republicans did worse in election day voting than they did in EV across the board.  That was likely influenced by college football, and the timing of the big game this time (it happened yesterday vs. on the Oct primary election day) favors a better R performance on election day vs. in EV.

I mean Abraham vs Rispone.  Abraham beat Rispone in the early vote because of the factors I mentioned, but couldn't keep up with Rispone on air. 
Logged
Still couldn't quell the Bel
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,427
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #572 on: November 10, 2019, 12:26:03 pm »

I'm still going to be cautious, since EV isn't always a great indicator in most states (as we've seen before.) I'll still call this a Toss-Up, though I might say Edwards is very narrowly favored instead of Rispone. I'll make a final prediction later.
Logged
You're Still Going to Vote for Biden
politicalmasta73
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,966
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #573 on: November 10, 2019, 12:50:36 pm »

These numbers look good, but a few things one must consider

1. Blacks might just be cannibalizing their vote through EV.

2. When the JMC poll is adjusted to fit these #s, JBE is still only up 50-46.

3. Election Day is generally worse for democrats than EV, though that wasn't the case in the primary for the reasons mentioned above.

Logged
Skill and Chance
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,640
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #574 on: November 10, 2019, 12:59:27 pm »

Yes, perhaps I should be more careful not to overstate JBE's apparent advantage here.  Reasons for caution:

1. He can improve his vote share from the primary round and still lose. 
2. Historical EV vs. ED dynamic and the very Republican-leaning college football fanbase
3. Rispone fits the profile of recent R overperformers as an outsider businessman
4. JBE may fit the profile of recent D underperformers in an "only won because of his opponent's scandals" kind of way.  On the other hand, he won by 12 against Vitter, a margin large enough that he could have been competitive against Generic R. 
5. Hood's loss next door



Logged
Pages: 1 ... 18 19 20 21 22 [23] 24 25 26 27 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC