LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[Frodo]

Between defeating JBE or getting a supermajority in the State House, which do you think will be easier for LA Republicans?  This has potentially important implications for redistricting, as a JBE veto of the 2021 maps could force 2 separate Dem leaning CDs in NOLA and Baton Rouge and keep Republicans structurally below a legislative supermajority through the 2020's.  After seeing the 2 suburban Trump districts flip in MS and a couple of the rural seats hold, I think JBE will be able to get his vetoes sustained in any scenario where he wins reelection.

There is always the possibility of enough Democratic defections to effectively secure a Republican supermajority in the House even when they didn't win one outright on November 16. 

[DINGO Joe]

This all looks very good for JBE when compared to the primary round.  

One caveat is the primary EV was influenced by a major college football game on the October 12th election day.  College football is one of the most Republican-leaning major sports, and Primary round EV ended up being more Republican than the election day day vote, which is historically unusual.

Well, we all should know that the real reason for early voting is so that Bubba can go hunting and fishing (aka drinking) on Saturday.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/JohnBelforLA/status/1193330290812321792

FTR, the LSU coach is a JBE supporter. He's appeared in JBE football-themed ads before  hand, and it's not that hard to recognize that JBE wants to milk this for all its got.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/JohnBelforLA/status/1193330290812321792

FTR, the LSU coach is a JBE supporter. He's appeared in JBE football-themed ads before  hand, and it's not that hard to recognize that JBE wants to milk this for all its got.

I believe there is some research showing the home team winning a big game helps incumbents.

[Frodo]

I mentioned earlier that Jim Hood was the last of his kind after he lost the Mississippi's governor's race as a centrist white southern Democrat with statewide appeal.  If Governor John Bel Edwards were to lose his bid for re-election, do Louisiana Democrats have anyone else who could run in 2023 or later?  Perhaps former New Orleans mayor Mitch Landrieu?  Or is their bench just as bare as their counterparts in Mississippi?  

[Skill and Chance]

Dems will always have mayors/state legislators they can run because of NOLA and Baton Rouge.  If and when they get someone elected to a seat in Metairie, that person should look at running statewide in the next cycle.  Any wins going forward (including JBE if he pulls through next Saturday) are likely to be with the new urban-suburban coalition- winning NOLA and EBR near unanimously, getting a big margin out of Jefferson and Caddo, and keeping Calcasieu and St. Tammany closee.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://electionstatistics.sos.la.gov/Data/Early_Voting_Statistics/Statewide/2019_1116_StatewideStats.pdf

Final early voting numbers

D : 46.2%
R : 38.2%

D advantage : D+8 (was 1.5 in the primary)

Blacks : 31%
Whites : 66%


Edwards is probably winning early voting ballots 52/48

[ElectionsGuy]

Those numbers are very troubling to Rispone's chances. Maybe the Republican infighting is going to lower their turnout after all... Or some Democrats just sat on their ass in October.

[Tender Branson]

Solid numbers for JBE.

He probably wins with 53-55% now.

[Frenchrepublican]

Those numbers are very troubling to Rispone's chances. Maybe the Republican infighting is going to lower their turnout after all... Or some Democrats just sat on their ass in October.

JMC analysis is here :
https://winwithjmc.com/archives/8835
Yeah, these numbers are not great, unfortunately

[DINGO Joe]

Those numbers are very troubling to Rispone's chances. Maybe the Republican infighting is going to lower their turnout after all... Or some Democrats just sat on their ass in October.

For reasons I cannot explain, there is a segment of African American voters who just don't participate in the "primary" election.

[DINGO Joe]

Dems will always have mayors/state legislators they can run because of NOLA and Baton Rouge.  If and when they get someone elected to a seat in Metairie, that person should look at running statewide in the next cycle.  Any wins going forward (including JBE if he pulls through next Saturday) are likely to be with the new urban-suburban coalition- winning NOLA and EBR near unanimously, getting a big margin out of Jefferson and Caddo, and keeping Calcasieu and St. Tammany closee.

It'n not like anyone knew who Jon Bel was before he ran anyway.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Come on Daddy, pull through.

[DINGO Joe]

I think Abraham ran better everywhere in early voting than he did on election day in the primary because he was better organized and had establishment support while Rispone has no organization, so I guess that could be reflected here to.

[windjammer]

I'm pessimistic about this race. I fear black turnout won't be enough.

[Skill and Chance]

Wow, what a shift in the EV from the primary to the runoff.  This opens up the possibility of a JBE win by 6-10, though I do expect election day voting to favor Rispone more, so probably more like a 2.5-5% JBE win in the end.  

[Skill and Chance]

I think Abraham ran better everywhere in early voting than he did on election day in the primary because he was better organized and had establishment support while Rispone has no organization, so I guess that could be reflected here to.

Actually the LA Oct primary was one of the rare elections where Republicans did worse in election day voting than they did in EV across the board.  That was likely influenced by college football, and the timing of the big game this time (it happened yesterday vs. on the Oct primary election day) favors a better R performance on election day vs. in EV.

[DINGO Joe]

I think Abraham ran better everywhere in early voting than he did on election day in the primary because he was better organized and had establishment support while Rispone has no organization, so I guess that could be reflected here to.

Actually the LA Oct primary was one of the rare elections where Republicans did worse in election day voting than they did in EV across the board.  That was likely influenced by college football, and the timing of the big game this time (it happened yesterday vs. on the Oct primary election day) favors a better R performance on election day vs. in EV.

I mean Abraham vs Rispone.  Abraham beat Rispone in the early vote because of the factors I mentioned, but couldn't keep up with Rispone on air. 

[Xing]

I'm still going to be cautious, since EV isn't always a great indicator in most states (as we've seen before.) I'll still call this a Toss-Up, though I might say Edwards is very narrowly favored instead of Rispone. I'll make a final prediction later.

[Bidenworth2020]

These numbers look good, but a few things one must consider

1. Blacks might just be cannibalizing their vote through EV.

2. When the JMC poll is adjusted to fit these #s, JBE is still only up 50-46.

3. Election Day is generally worse for democrats than EV, though that wasn't the case in the primary for the reasons mentioned above.

[Skill and Chance]

Yes, perhaps I should be more careful not to overstate JBE's apparent advantage here.  Reasons for caution:

1. He can improve his vote share from the primary round and still lose. 
2. Historical EV vs. ED dynamic and the very Republican-leaning college football fanbase
3. Rispone fits the profile of recent R overperformers as an outsider businessman
4. JBE may fit the profile of recent D underperformers in an "only won because of his opponent's scandals" kind of way.  On the other hand, he won by 12 against Vitter, a margin large enough that he could have been competitive against Generic R. 
5. Hood's loss next door

[Matty]

Wasserman is on twitter saying he could probably call the race for JBE right now if he wanted to. says EV is disastrous for Rs

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

d@@@@@@mn

[lfromnj]

Yeah this is likely JBe rn

[lfromnj]

Those numbers are very troubling to Rispone's chances. Maybe the Republican infighting is going to lower their turnout after all... Or some Democrats just sat on their ass in October.

For reasons I cannot explain, there is a segment of African American voters who just don't participate in the "primary" election.

This is especially weird because in GA it's the opposite