LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[DINGO Joe]

Edwards 52 Tweedle Dumb 23 Tweedle Dee 22

[DINGO Joe]

I also saw John Couvillon say that typically there is a surge in black voters and to a lesser extent Democrats towards the end of the early vote period.

Blacks have a history of voting more on the last Saturday, or maybe whites less.  Of course, given the popularity of early voting, past patterns may not be applicable.

[DINGO Joe]

Interesting that the D margin between the 2015 and 2019 runoffs declined from +17 to +7, but at the same time the electorate got a lot blacker ...

Each election cycle there will be fewer and fewer Dixiecrats, you register along modern lines.

[DINGO Joe]

Isn't today expected to be a strong day for Democrats?

I don't know about today, but the last Saturday traditionally has been.

[DINGO Joe]

64.000 voted early yesterday, 417.000 in total now.

67.7% White
29.5% Black
  2.8% Others

55.8% Women
44.2% Men

45.6% DEMs
39.2% REPs
15.2% Others

500.000 early votes are still possible if today has above-average turnout ... (today is the last day to vote early).

That +11.6% women-to-men gap sticks out to me.  Is that normal in early voting?

Yes, it's reflected in voter registration too.  It's a function of comparatively short lifespan and high incarceration rates for black males.

[DINGO Joe]

64.000 voted early yesterday, 417.000 in total now.

67.7% White
29.5% Black
  2.8% Others

55.8% Women
44.2% Men

45.6% DEMs
39.2% REPs
15.2% Others

500.000 early votes are still possible if today has above-average turnout ... (today is the last day to vote early).

Early voting will also include mail-in ballots received thru the 15th, so it will almost certainly top 500,000

[DINGO Joe]

Is there any rain in the forecast for next Saturday? 

Only in Northern New Orleans, or as the locals call it NoNo

[DINGO Joe]

This all looks very good for JBE when compared to the primary round.  

One caveat is the primary EV was influenced by a major college football game on the October 12th election day.  College football is one of the most Republican-leaning major sports, and Primary round EV ended up being more Republican than the election day day vote, which is historically unusual.

Well, we all should know that the real reason for early voting is so that Bubba can go hunting and fishing (aka drinking) on Saturday.

[DINGO Joe]

Those numbers are very troubling to Rispone's chances. Maybe the Republican infighting is going to lower their turnout after all... Or some Democrats just sat on their ass in October.

For reasons I cannot explain, there is a segment of African American voters who just don't participate in the "primary" election.

[DINGO Joe]

Dems will always have mayors/state legislators they can run because of NOLA and Baton Rouge.  If and when they get someone elected to a seat in Metairie, that person should look at running statewide in the next cycle.  Any wins going forward (including JBE if he pulls through next Saturday) are likely to be with the new urban-suburban coalition- winning NOLA and EBR near unanimously, getting a big margin out of Jefferson and Caddo, and keeping Calcasieu and St. Tammany closee.

It'n not like anyone knew who Jon Bel was before he ran anyway.

[DINGO Joe]

I think Abraham ran better everywhere in early voting than he did on election day in the primary because he was better organized and had establishment support while Rispone has no organization, so I guess that could be reflected here to.

[DINGO Joe]

I think Abraham ran better everywhere in early voting than he did on election day in the primary because he was better organized and had establishment support while Rispone has no organization, so I guess that could be reflected here to.

Actually the LA Oct primary was one of the rare elections where Republicans did worse in election day voting than they did in EV across the board.  That was likely influenced by college football, and the timing of the big game this time (it happened yesterday vs. on the Oct primary election day) favors a better R performance on election day vs. in EV.

I mean Abraham vs Rispone.  Abraham beat Rispone in the early vote because of the factors I mentioned, but couldn't keep up with Rispone on air. 

[DINGO Joe]

Just for reference, in 2015 the A-A vote made up 26.6% in the "primary" and 29.7% in the general.  This year, it was 25.4% in the primary and 31.0 for the general.  It seems to occur in all parts of the state and in urban and rural parishes.  I know of no GOTV means to make that occur, so I have to assume that it is largely cultural.

[DINGO Joe]

LA Voter registration

63.4% white 31.3 black 5.3 other

Early vote

65.9% white 31.1 black 2.9 other

Primary early vote

72.0% white 25.4 black 2.6 other

[DINGO Joe]

Democrats have made ads comparing Rispone to David Duke.

Allies of the governor are also blanketing the radio airwaves and urging people to vote. In one spot running in New Orleans, [State Sen. Troy] Carter likens Rispone and Trump to white supremacist David Duke, much like an ad launched by the Black Organization for Leadership Development last week that was turned into a Rispone campaign ad slamming the governor. The state Democratic Party paid for Carter’s ad, he said, and he pointed to comments Duke has made in recent days embracing the Republican.

https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/elections/article_18d64684-066d-11ea-86a2-fbfab989991e.html

I feel like this will most likely backfire by heightening defensive partisanship, maybe even cost Edwards the election.

You do realize that David Duke has run statewide twice where he won a majority of the white vote.  What makes you think Rispone hasn't voted for Duke in the past?  He sure acts like a Dukie.

[DINGO Joe]

I'm a registered Democrat and my wife is a registered Independent (though to the left of me) who also has a different last name.  We'll get mailers from the same candidates on the same day that have been obviously tailored to different audiences. Occasionally, my wife will even get Republican mailers, which seems foolish in Orleans Parish and just make her mad.   Very rarely, we'll get mailers addressed to both of us where they apparently have figured out we're married. 

[DINGO Joe]

I voted at my uptown NOLA precinct around 4PM, steady not real busy (precincts in NOLA tend to be pretty small) but they had run out of the "I voted" stickers, for whatever that's worth.

[DINGO Joe]

Hey at least Rispone finally got his own Wiki page!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eddie_Rispone

Just in time to be irrelevant again.  Wonder if he torched more than $20 million of his own money?

[DINGO Joe]

I told you JBE would win!

Go John Bel!

It's really a sad thing, even if it's not very surprising

Poor people get to keep their healthcare under Medicaid Expansion, we may get a fair map under redistricting, and the budget will remain balanced. How horrible!

You forgot the money Edwards put back into education and the prison/sentencing reform

[DINGO Joe]

Demographic data for the runoff have posted

Turnout:
White 52.7
Black 50.2
Other 35.2

The gap between W/B turnout was 9.6 in the primary and 3.0 in the 2015 general

From the primary, the black vote increased by about 94,000, the white vote 56,000 and other by 9,000. 

The voting electorate was 65.5 white 30.8 black and 3.6 other

The early vote was 65.9 white 31.1 black and 3.0 other

[DINGO Joe]

Demographic data for the runoff have posted

Turnout:
White 52.7
Black 50.2
Other 35.2

The gap between W/B turnout was 9.6 in the primary and 3.0 in the 2015 general

From the primary, the black vote increased by about 94,000, the white vote 56,000 and other by 9,000. 

The voting electorate was 65.5 white 30.8 black and 3.6 other

The early vote was 65.9 white 31.1 black and 3.0 other

Some other odds and ends.  The voting electorate wasn't terrible different in 2015--66.7 white 30.3 black 3.0 other.  Edwards would have still won with that electorate, just by even less.

The biggest white "surge" in voting between the primary and runoff, both numerically and by % was in Orleans Parish of all places where 9700 more whites voted in the runoff than the primary an increase of about 24% (statewide the increase in white voting was about 6%) and given that Orleans voted 90-10 for Edwards that was certainly beneficial for him.

In fact the electorate in Orleans was actually whiter in 2019 (38.8-54.6-6.6) than 2015 (37.6-57.0-5.4) and Edwards still got a 6 point swing, so ya know--trends.

The highest white participation rates were in some random rural North Louisiana parishes with Claiborne narrowly edging out LaSalle (69.2 to 68.7)  so I guess Trump's rallies in North Louisiana did their job.  LaSalle actually had a whiter electorate in 2019 (93.0)  to 2015 (92.4).  The worst white participation rate was in St. Bernard (39.6) actually behind the black participation rate (44.7) the electorate become much less white in 2019 (72.4)  than 2015 (82.4).  This is most likely a function of rapid demographic change as St. Bernard isn't very "fashionable" and is adjacent to the blackest parts of Orleans.

The  white electorate actually dropped numerically in one place from the primary to the runoff--Calcasieu, by a couple of hundred votes.  Trump held a rally here before the primary but not during the runoff so I guess that, much like meth,  the effects of a Trump rally wear off over time.

Black participation rates were highest and actually frequently surpassed white turnout in many of the river or industrial parishes in between and around Baton Rouge and New Orleans.  There is a large BWC here working at chemical plants and refineries.  Again, part of this is probably part of demographic shifts and voter registration figures frequently lagging those shifts. 

Contrary to popular opinion, the state didn't become whiter after Hurricane Katrina, the population just shifted further inland.  Blacks have shifted upriver while whites shifted to the Northshore.  Orleans has gotten whiter and more gentrified while the suburbs, mainly Jefferson and St. Bernard have gotten more multi-ethnic.  I suspect that after the next census it will be easier to draw a Baton Rouge based black congressional district than an Orleans one,  though still quite easy to draw a compact minority majority district on the Southshore of metro New Orleans that would actually be  more Democratic than the black majority district.