LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Jungle:

JBE 46%

Abraham 36%

Rispone 14%

Other Randos 4%

Runoff:

Abraham wins 52-48

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

JBE's best shot is to take it in the jungle primary, since that means he won't have to deal with Trump or a united GOP field at all. Granted Landrieu and Dantzler probably force it to a runoff, with what looks possible to be Rispone now, that was a surprise to me.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Trump to hold a Campaign rally on Friday in Lake Charle, LA.

https://www.kplctv.com/2019/10/06/trump-campaign-louisiana-friday-republican-candidates-
governor/

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1180899945701879808

Lmao will both Rispone and Abraham be there like Jenkins and Morrisey XD

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

RIsPone Edwards.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1183219098911682561

Edwards was never at 66% you damned miscreant.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I am changing my mind, I think Edwards pulls this out by 50.6-49.4.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Come on Daddy, pull through.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

d@@@@@@mn

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This looks like it will play out surprisingly similar to LA-SEN 2002.

LMAO I just looked it up, and Patrick Landry also ran there and got basically the same percentage and vote total XD

he did run as an indy in 2002 while in 2019 as a republican

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/elizabethcrisp/status/1195148850383785984

XD

We cannot let this man lose!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Donald Trump is absolutely nobody to determine who is an American patriot and who is not. I’m getting tired of the right continously sweeping aside JBE’s patriotism and service to the nation

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I wonder how many Trump voters JBE will get.

Edwards will obviously need Trump voters to win reelection. I suspect the ones he will get will be moderate, educated, middle to upper middle class white suburbanites in the New Orleans and Baton Rouge metropolitan areas.

I mean yes, but he will also be getting them in rural Trump country too. Obviously he will do much worse than 2015 there, but it will be places like Cameron Parish Louisiana where hell get high twenties vs like 10% and lose it by high 40s instead of like by 80. He will do much better in many rural Trump country areas than HRC 2016, which will go underapreciated should he win tomorrow. Sometimes it really does make a giant difference and help get you over the top whether you get smashed by 40-50 points in an area instead of like 60 you know?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This race on my mind has kept me up all night.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Logical projection can be made with nothing in.

Lousiana Secretary of State 2019 Runoff (0% Reporting)

Projected Winner: Kyle Ardoin (R)✔

Gwen Collins-Greenup (D)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

LMAO totally off

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1195971729899831297

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hey at least Rispone finally got his own Wiki page!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eddie_Rispone

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I told you JBE would win!

Go John Bel!

It's really a sad thing, even if it's not very surprising

Poor people get to keep their healthcare under Medicaid Expansion, we may get a fair map under redistricting, and the budget will remain balanced. How horrible!

A pro dem judicialmander is not a fair map

Yeah, they should totally just leave this great map alone

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Bruh wtf

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Results from Abraham's home village, yikes!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Around three weeks before election day I decided on 51.5% Rispone, 48.5% JBE because I figured that Rispone would be able to consolidate the Abraham supporters, and persuade enough JBE-leaning Trump voters to balance out any increase in black turnout.

The day before the election I was more pessimistic due to reading reports of solid black turnout from "Souls to the Polls," as well as the fact that even Atlas Trump supporting friends like Lechasseur said they back JBE, and seeing Trump supporters being interviewed at rallies who unapologetically admit to voting JBE despite unapologetically supporting Trump.

Candidates like John Bel Edwards, Jon Tester, Joe Manchin, etc are beatable if the opposition campaigns are able to persuade enough Trump-voting "I'll go with the blue dog" voters into voting for the Republican candidate. I do think Trump could've done a better job in that regard rather than just blanketly calling them "Nancy Pelosi style liberals" - he hasn't put that much thought into these kinds of Democrats because they aren't high on his priority list of opponents to take down.  I also think that Republican opponents of these blue dogs (Rispone, Rosendale, Morrissey; even the ones who won like Braun, Hawley, Cramer) could all have done better if they came up with creative ways to deal with the "persuade blue dog Trump voters to abandon the Democrats etnirely" problem.

Show ads explaining the backstories of people who used to back "conservative Democrats" but have now seen the light of how awful the party has gotten. Instead of mindlessly calling them "liberals," use words like "swindler" or "trickster" or "fake moderate." Explain that those candidates don't deserve your vote for doing the bare minimum and that you'll do all the things that those Democrats have done that you approve of, and more.

Objectively, yes this is a really good take.