LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[Bidenworth2020]

I have to be honest- I miss the anecdotal turnout reports that were usually wrong.

[Bidenworth2020]

Orleans dumped EV, JBE at 46.4. Pretty good, especially since this is the early vote.

[Bidenworth2020]

Let the record show I will happily admit I was wrong if JBE wins tonight. I wonder if the same can be said when Bevin crushes it in three weeks

Although JBE could still win, even tonight, his utter collapse in Acadiana makes me resigned to Bevin winning, since Appalachia has had similar voting patterns. Not a direct correlation, but worrying nonetheless.

[Bidenworth2020]

I think JBE will come close, but not absurdly close, to 50. We still have Livingston, St. Tammany, etc.

[Bidenworth2020]

Tilt R for the Runoff. JBE could make the electorate more democratic for the runoff, but I could not count on it.

[Bidenworth2020]

Looking like the combined 2 party vote will be around 51-48 Rep/Dem. I think that since Republicans will consolidate very effectively and Trump will come quite a few times for Rispone, Tilt R seems appropriate.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1183219098911682561 Where did he get 66% from?

Either he is just making it up to set expectations well (which is smart) or he has better polls than we do (which is also smart).

Thanks for helping us in Louisiana, Mr. President. Proud to have a fellow boy from Queens repping America and the Republican Party. Please help Rispone unseat JBE, as no one with the D next to their name deserves to hold elected office, even so-called 'conservative' Democrats.

After all, many many dangerous leftists have advanced their political careers working for 'conservative' Democrats. Who knows what dangerous staffer/employee/subordinate JBE has that can later advance to higher office thanks to JBE occupying the governor's mansion?

... or he typed a 6 instead of a 5?

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1190785476581572608

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1190800755596222465

The example he points to for high turnout, Vermillion, only gave JBE 22% in the primary. If thats the trend he chooses to point out, JBE should be concerned.

[Bidenworth2020]

Worth mentioning that with these numbers, JBE would lose 1 when the  %s are inputed into the JMC poll crosstabs.

[Bidenworth2020]

Early Vote update !

Until yesterday, 295.000 have voted early.

386.000 in total for the 1st round.

There are 3 days left (Thu, Fri and Sat) and an average of 80.000 votes are added per day, so more than 500.000 votes are possible.

67.7% Whites (72.0% in the 1st round)
29.6% Blacks (25.4%)

46.1% Democrats (43.7%)
39.1% Republicans (41.3%)

Couvillion had primary EV white/black at 74-24, Dems ar 43-42.5. New update today dude.

[Bidenworth2020]

58.000 voted early yesterday, 353.000 in total now.

Black share down slightly from 29.6% to 29.5%

DEMS IN DISARRAY

This was after Trump's rally, I might add. Considering that, a solid showing for dems.

[Bidenworth2020]

These numbers look good, but a few things one must consider

1. Blacks might just be cannibalizing their vote through EV.

2. When the JMC poll is adjusted to fit these #s, JBE is still only up 50-46.

3. Election Day is generally worse for democrats than EV, though that wasn't the case in the primary for the reasons mentioned above.

[Bidenworth2020]

Democrats have made ads comparing Rispone to David Duke.

Allies of the governor are also blanketing the radio airwaves and urging people to vote. In one spot running in New Orleans, [State Sen. Troy] Carter likens Rispone and Trump to white supremacist David Duke, much like an ad launched by the Black Organization for Leadership Development last week that was turned into a Rispone campaign ad slamming the governor. The state Democratic Party paid for Carter’s ad, he said, and he pointed to comments Duke has made in recent days embracing the Republican.

https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/elections/article_18d64684-066d-11ea-86a2-fbfab989991e.html

I feel like this will most likely backfire by heightening defensive partisanship, maybe even cost Edwards the election.

Ripose went hard right in the primary, painting Abraham as a Pelosi loving liberal.

Makes sense for Edwards to try and win over those more moderate Abraham voters.

Both of your guys' points are bad. For Shua, notice that the ad is only running in New Orleans, an area that WOULD respond well to this type of advertisement, not statewide,  and Cinemark, you are failing to realize that Abraham's District almost voted for Duke in 91 if not just voted for him outright. Abraham's seat includes a sizable portion of his NoLa base.

[Bidenworth2020]

Democrats have made ads comparing Rispone to David Duke.

Allies of the governor are also blanketing the radio airwaves and urging people to vote. In one spot running in New Orleans, [State Sen. Troy] Carter likens Rispone and Trump to white supremacist David Duke, much like an ad launched by the Black Organization for Leadership Development last week that was turned into a Rispone campaign ad slamming the governor. The state Democratic Party paid for Carter’s ad, he said, and he pointed to comments Duke has made in recent days embracing the Republican.

https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/elections/article_18d64684-066d-11ea-86a2-fbfab989991e.html

I feel like this will most likely backfire by heightening defensive partisanship, maybe even cost Edwards the election.

Ripose went hard right in the primary, painting Abraham as a Pelosi loving liberal.

Makes sense for Edwards to try and win over those more moderate Abraham voters.

Both of your guys' points are bad. For Shua, notice that the ad is only running in New Orleans, an area that WOULD respond well to this type of advertisement, not statewide,  and Cinemark, you are failing to realize that Abraham's District almost voted for Duke in 91 if not just voted for him outright. Abraham's seat includes a sizable portion of his NoLa base.

FYI, NOLA is New Orleans. I've never once seen it referring to Northern Louisiana.

My mistake. Nonetheless, the point stands.

[Bidenworth2020]

Democrats have made ads comparing Rispone to David Duke.

Allies of the governor are also blanketing the radio airwaves and urging people to vote. In one spot running in New Orleans, [State Sen. Troy] Carter likens Rispone and Trump to white supremacist David Duke, much like an ad launched by the Black Organization for Leadership Development last week that was turned into a Rispone campaign ad slamming the governor. The state Democratic Party paid for Carter’s ad, he said, and he pointed to comments Duke has made in recent days embracing the Republican.

https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/elections/article_18d64684-066d-11ea-86a2-fbfab989991e.html

I feel like this will most likely backfire by heightening defensive partisanship, maybe even cost Edwards the election.

Ripose went hard right in the primary, painting Abraham as a Pelosi loving liberal.

Makes sense for Edwards to try and win over those more moderate Abraham voters.

Both of your guys' points are bad. For Shua, notice that the ad is only running in New Orleans, an area that WOULD respond well to this type of advertisement, not statewide,  and Cinemark, you are failing to realize that Abraham's District almost voted for Duke in 91 if not just voted for him outright. Abraham's seat includes a sizable portion of his NoLa base.

You can't hide the fact that you are running an ad like this from a different demographic or a different part of the state, it's not the 1840s.   This kind of stuff absolutely does make Republican-leaners have second thoughts before crossing party lines.

Maybe if they heard it. My whole point is this ad is specifically tailored as a radio ad (and a less prominent one at that it appears) for NOLA, not Northern Lousiana. It seems fairly unlikely it spreads that far, especially a day before the election.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1195737733962047489

[Bidenworth2020]

Just to confirm, polls close at 8pm, right?
Might stay up to catch a few results, but it's always frustrating to have to wait until 2am for polls to even close.

9PM eastern, but 8PM central yeah

[Bidenworth2020]

Very close poll result

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1195848903138127873

lol they have Rispone winning Hispanics+Asians with 68%. Other parts of the poll look legit though.

[Bidenworth2020]

I voted at my uptown NOLA precinct around 4PM, steady not real busy (precincts in NOLA tend to be pretty small) but they had run out of the "I voted" stickers, for whatever that's worth.

Looks like you were onto something...

https://twitter.com/WestleyBayas/status/1195825076026925057