LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[Oryxslayer]

If Trump were to hold a rally in Louisiana next month, how much of an effect would that have on the governor's race (as well as various legislative races)?

A whole lot. Not because he would be polarizing the race but because he or his administration would have to endorse one of Rispone or Abraham, that's just how a local campaign rally works. That would centralize GOP voters, and suddenly JBE might have a race on his hand.

[Oryxslayer]

Here we go, the God Emperor has spoken.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1179375408405450752

The fact that had didn't endorse or do turnout rallies make this a non-factor. Nothing changed. If he endorsed the race would be flipped on its head but... Just telling someone to go vote with no carrots, sticks, or flashy lights rarely works.

[Oryxslayer]

Trump to hold a Campaign rally on Friday in Lake Charle, LA.

https://www.kplctv.com/2019/10/06/trump-campaign-louisiana-friday-republican-candidates-
governor/

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1180899945701879808

Lmao will both Rispone and Abraham be there like Jenkins and Morrisey XD

'

Like I said earlier rallies for a party never work because people lack the motivation, they need to be for a person. A person sticks in your mind, a party is just a brand with a variety of flavors. If trump endorsed now, that would be different, but that's not happening till next week if at all.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's my prediction map (non-Atlas colors) of combined Dem vs Rep vote, with the expectation of JBE narrowly getting sucked into a runoff 49% (50-51% with the other Dem) vs combined R vote of 47-48%. Yellow counties are bellwethers. I'm expecting the most R swing in Cajun country, the most D swing in Baton Rouge and New Orleans suburbs, and least amount of swing in NoLA.

Similar map except:

Red River and Claiborne should be for JBE, they are more democratic then some of the blue counties  listed.

De Soto  and Comparatively Urban Calcasieu in the bellwether category.

St. Bernard is probably the bellwethers bellwether.

But I agree with the trend prediction.

[Oryxslayer]

This is sexy, the NYT page (paywalled for no-subs) will have a live precinct map. So here's a couple Miles LA maps for comparison:





He surprisingly doesn't have a map easily accessible of the 2015 runoff, but this site has the six largest counties.



   

   

Interactive 2016 US President Map by Precinct, but JBE will easily outperform this.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1183183637115740160

Louisiana Pollster. Probably good to keep his twitter open in a side thread for accurate takes.

[Oryxslayer]

Very annoyed no stations are covering.

Go find a local station, they appear to all aboard the results train:

https://twitter.com/Fox44fred/status/1183154881600864256

There's probably someway to get in on a computer.

[Oryxslayer]

What time will the first results started coming in

Govt site says now, we just need to know from where.

[Oryxslayer]

And NYT is beginning to get the early vote.

[Oryxslayer]

Edwards is in third place in LaSalle Parish (the most racist place in America), lmao.

Abraham is going to dominate the GOP vote in the baptist/dixie north, it's a question of how well he does in the more vote dense Catholic south.

[Oryxslayer]

Is there a counting bias towards the GOP or towards Dems?

The former. Nothing is in from Caddo, Orleans, or Baton Rouge.

And this is all early vote which may(?) be more favorable for the GOP if we follow history.

[Oryxslayer]

The interesting thing here is how Abramham appears to be winning the Acadian regions versus Rispone, at least in this early vote. Rispone will probably jump up when we see St Tammany, but right now we have to wait and see why the polls put Rispone ahead. Might end up being a E-Day vs Early vote divide.

Lafayette's numbers might be interesting for all parties involved.

[Oryxslayer]

Before people freak out about EBR being red - it's a precinct, not the Early vote. And it's a precinct Vitter won in 2015.

[Oryxslayer]

JBE IS WINNING LAFAYETTE PARISH

With a majority too right now. but looking at the precinct map, it appears to be the AA side of the city coming in right now, not the  red parts. I wouldn't be surprised if the county remains plurality JBE in the end, because national trends.

[Oryxslayer]

Oh hey, orleans just released the Early vote. And now things are not doom and gloom for JBE, what do you know,

[Oryxslayer]

Looking at the Precinct map of Jefferson, Edwards appears to be winning precincts in Metairie, which probably means he keeps his majority there when all is said and done.

[Oryxslayer]

EDWARDS PLURALITY IN ST. TAMMANY.

For reference, the 2015 runoff:

[Oryxslayer]

Still waiting on the EBR, Livingston, St. Tammany, and Caddo EV. then we should have a good EV benchmark for the state.

[Oryxslayer]

It does look like Trends Are VERY Real down in the Bayou tonight’s as JBE isn’t doing better than in 2015 across the suburbs but much worse in the rurals

Conveniently ignores Jefferson, St. Tammany, Lafayette, and a bunch of others.

[Oryxslayer]

Looks like we got the EBR EV.

[Oryxslayer]

It does look like Trends Are VERY Real down in the Bayou tonight’s as JBE isn’t doing better than in 2015 across the suburbs but much worse in the rurals

Conveniently ignores Jefferson, St. Tammany, Lafayette, and a bunch of others.

Are Jeffersonand St. Tammany not suburbs anymore?
Oh my bad I see auto correct put isn’t instead of is

yep, is vs isn't changed your message.

[Oryxslayer]

Livingston EV put Rispone ahead of Abraham. It really is a dead heat between them.

[Oryxslayer]

NYT is just playing catch-up to the SOS site it seems.
Bel is holding steady at 46% with a decent amount of New Orleans ready to go.

JBE has to be optimistic right now. Of the three big 'true' (national) Dem parishes in the state:  Caddo, EBR, and Orleans, only EBR is keeping pace with the states count. Caddo has no EV and barely and precincts, and Orleans has few precincts. And while EBR has a lot of precincts, it's mostly the more mixed East/Southeast - very little of the Uber-blue urban core.

[Oryxslayer]

JBE moved back down because livingston and lafayette released a bunch of GOP turf. Lafayette is nearly done, and JBE will probably get a plurality in a county that has been red since forever.

[Oryxslayer]

Interesting that it seems everyone ended up trolled by the Early Vote. I wouldn't be surprised if the lower dem numbers were because JBE identifiied dixiecrats as GOP voters, and saw suburban registered republicans in places  like Jefferson as favorable to his odds. it certainly looks like Edwards will hit his polling, maybe a bit higher once all is said and done.