LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term (user search)
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  LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term (search mode)
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Author Topic: LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term  (Read 45372 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« on: October 10, 2019, 09:15:23 PM »
My prediction:

51% Edwards (D)
25% Rispone (R)
21% Abraham (R)
  3% Others
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2019, 09:06:33 AM »
I’m the only one predicting an outright Edwards win.

You have heard it here first !
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2019, 11:23:49 PM »
Interesting results ...

Looks like the Democratic vote will end up at 48% after all the missing precincts are in.

That’s up from 42% in 2015, when he ended up winning the runoff with 56%.

JBE needs to convince ca. 4-6% of those who voted R today to vote for him in the runoff.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2019, 11:37:58 PM »
Quote from: TWTown on October 12, 2019, 11:31:44 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 12, 2019, 11:23:49 PM
Interesting results ...

Looks like the Democratic vote will end up at 48% after all the missing precincts are in.

That’s up from 42% in 2015, when he ended up winning the runoff with 56%.

JBE needs to convince ca. 4-6% of those who voted R today to vote for him in the runoff.
Looks like it’ll end up at 47% and that’s being generous.


47% is only JBEs result, there is also another Democrat with 1% in the race ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2019, 11:56:54 PM »
My prediction for the runoff is a very close race.

51-49 for someone.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2019, 12:10:04 AM »
Quote from: 538Electoral on October 13, 2019, 12:01:37 AM
Quote from: LCameronOR on August 19, 2019, 07:39:19 PM
Edwards will most likely win outright and avoid a runoff.

This aged like bad milk.

I also thought he’d win outright ...

Just like I thought McCready would win by 2%.

It seems the rural areas in the US are trending even more Republican than I thought. 2 weeks ago, many rural areas in the Austrian parliamentary elections already had strong trends to the right despite rightwing scandal, but the US is even worse. I might have to create more R-leaning predictions in the future.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2019, 12:20:55 AM »
Quote from: IceSpear on October 13, 2019, 12:17:54 AM
Quote from: Skye on October 13, 2019, 12:16:08 AM
Quite important that the vote was 51.8 R - 47.4 D. It's a bit disappointing for Edwards, but nothing too out of line with what polls showed.

Realistically, Landrieu should probably be put in with the D vote for obvious reasons.

No, Landrieu is a rightwinger who used the nygger word.

He’s not from the Democratic Landrieus in LA ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2019, 11:21:41 PM »
I hope Trump stays out before the runoff ... but I guess he won't.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2019, 11:00:03 AM »
JBE talks like a rapper:
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2019, 11:20:57 PM »
One should not read too much into these early voting numbers ...

I expect turnout to be a bit higher though: 1.4-1.5 million
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2019, 06:44:39 AM »
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on November 03, 2019, 05:35:16 AM
Early voting numbers are in and they are far better for Edwards than those of the jungle primary
https://electionstatistics.sos.la.gov/Data/Early_Voting_Statistics/Statewide/2019_1116_StatewideStats.pdf

89.6 k early votes casted
Democrats : 45.3% (44% for the first day of the primary)
Republicans : 39.1% (42% for the first day of the primary)

Whites : 66%
Blacks : 30.8%

Generally speaking weekend days are more favourable to democrats than week days.

Thinking about this, what majorities would it take in the House/Senate to change voting from Tuesday to the weekend ?

Or is this regulated state by state ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2019, 12:21:57 PM »
Presidential election style early voting.

Not bad ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2019, 12:53:32 PM »
Edwards probably wins by a Reeves-like margin now.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #13 on: November 07, 2019, 12:25:06 PM »
Early Vote update !

Until yesterday, 295.000 have voted early.

386.000 in total for the 1st round.

There are 3 days left (Thu, Fri and Sat) and an average of 80.000 votes are added per day, so more than 500.000 votes are possible.

67.7% Whites (72.0% in the 1st round)
29.6% Blacks (25.4%)

46.1% Democrats (43.7%)
39.1% Republicans (41.3%)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #14 on: November 07, 2019, 02:55:49 PM »
Interesting that the D margin between the 2015 and 2019 runoffs declined from +17 to +7, but at the same time the electorate got a lot blacker ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #15 on: November 08, 2019, 11:16:43 AM »
58.000 voted early yesterday, 353.000 in total now.

Black share down slightly from 29.6% to 29.5%
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #16 on: November 09, 2019, 05:26:59 AM »
64.000 voted early yesterday, 417.000 in total now.

67.7% White
29.5% Black
  2.8% Others

55.8% Women
44.2% Men

45.6% DEMs
39.2% REPs
15.2% Others

500.000 early votes are still possible if today has above-average turnout ... (today is the last day to vote early).
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #17 on: November 10, 2019, 09:03:12 AM »
Solid numbers for JBE.

He probably wins with 53-55% now.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #18 on: November 13, 2019, 12:50:06 PM »
Almost 500.000 early/postal votes now cast.

Black share has risen to 31.1%
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #19 on: November 15, 2019, 10:38:46 AM »
Advance voting has passed 500.000 votes as of yesterday, as more postal ballots are returned.

Black vote still at 31.1%
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