LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[Frenchrepublican]

As of now I think there will be a runoff

JBE : 45%
Abraham : 35%
Rispone : 10%
Remaining dudes : 10%

In the end JBE wins the runoff 52/48

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1182274348859699203?s=20

[Frenchrepublican]

Mine :

Edwards (D) : 46%
Rispone (R) : 27%
Abraham (R) : 23%
Landrieu (I) : 2%
Others : 2%

[Frenchrepublican]

How primary votes are redistributed for a JBE vs Rispone runoff, according to a final poll. Calculating this, I get 47.9% JBE, 45.1% Rispone and 7% undecided.

Yeah, that’s probably where the race stands as of now

The big question is who are the undecided voters and my guts tell me that they’re not very favourable to Edwards.

[Frenchrepublican]

Found on Eddie Rispone's FB group. A segment of Abraham supporters bitter at him might spell potential trouble.

Well, it's probably more an anecdotal phenomenon than anything else.

[Frenchrepublican]

JBE's internal has him up by 16, they claim they nailed their jungle percentage:

https://twitter.com/ZacMcCrary/status/1183761810022948867?s=20

ALG's poll shows 12% of Abraham's voters said they will vote for Edwards in the runoff with 15% of them undecided.

ALG's poll also shows Edwards' with a 60% positive job rating, but that would also be an indication some voters who approve of Edwards' job voted for one of the Republicans in the primary anyway.

Rispone, meanwhile, has a 32% favorable rating and a 38% unfavorable rating in the poll.

They must be really worried to release some bogus internal polls less than 48 hours after the end of the first round.

Concerning the claim they nailed the jungle primary results, I would love to see what share of the vote they gave to the two republican candidates, the problem with many #LA-GOV polls is that they underestimated greatly the share of the vote obtained by the two republicans, not that they failed to predict the JBE’s share.

[Frenchrepublican]

Ripose ran a very negative campaign against Abraham. While I'm not sure it matters in the long run, it shouldnt be a surprise that Abraham's supporters are upset.

It’s not a big deal, Abraham is not a sore loser and endorsed him quickly, primary are sometimes brutal but it rarely matters in the end. Just at the #FL-GOV primary last year, it was very brutal and despite it, in the end most Putnam’s voters backed De Santis.

[Frenchrepublican]

Ripose ran a very negative campaign against Abraham. While I'm not sure it matters in the long run, it shouldnt be a surprise that Abraham's supporters are upset.

It’s not a big deal, Abraham is not a sore loser and endorsed him quickly, primary are sometimes brutal but it rarely matters in the end. Just at the #FL-GOV primary last year, it was very brutal and despite it, in the end most Putnam’s voters backed De Santis.

We'll see. There could be republicans who voted for Abraham out of loyality who might now vote for Edwards, especially since Ripose went negative while Abraham didnt. Not saying it'll happen, but to openly dismiss the possibility seems short sighted.

Also, while the Florida governor race was very negative, DeSantis had about 3 months to consolidate support. Ripose has a month. DeSantis also wasnt running against a semi-popular incumbent.

Again, i'm not saying Ripose is gonna lose because of this. But Ripose went very negative while Abraham did not. That could piss off some people, maybe enough to get them to cross over like in 2015.

Well, wait and see ; but I don’t think that 2015 is a good analogy because Vitter was really a flawed candidate and his republican opponents even refused to back him in the runoff. Besides moderate republicans who like Edwards have already voted for him Saturday, so I doubt he will find many new supporters on his right flank.

[Frenchrepublican]

Concerning the claim they nailed the jungle primary results, I would love to see what share of the vote they gave to the two republican candidates, the problem with many #LA-GOV polls is that they underestimated greatly the share of the vote obtained by the two republicans, not that they failed to predict the JBE’s share.

This claim has been made a few times in this thread. The problem is that there's not really any evidence that this is actually the case — the explanation is simply that the most likely people to be "undecided" in a contested election with two Republicans and one Democrat are Republicans. If you look at the polls that actually pushed those undecided voters, you'll see that they did a pretty decent job of figuring out the final vote shares.

Rispone+Abraham final: 51
Trafalgar: 48 (MoE of 3)
Data for Progress: 48 (MoE of 3)
Emerson: 44, but with 4% to the Landrieu and 3% to the no-name R

Another plausible explanation is that many of these polls which had the R combined share of the vote >45% is that they over-sampled democrats. Data for Progress had Trump approval at +12 while Emerson had him at only +8, while Mason Dixon had him at only +6. It explains why Data for Progress did a better job predicting the real results than other polls.

[Frenchrepublican]

I think Edwards can eke this out but its gonna be a close one got this some polls show him taking 12% of Abraham's support already

The poll I saw had him taking 12% of Abraham's support with 18% of Abraham's support being undecided.

And it remains to be seen if this number of 12% is not inflated by the fact that the poll was done before the end of the primary.

[Frenchrepublican]

Here are county ratings I made for all three races.



And I should tell you what I'm currently expecting as well so it makes sense...

KY: 52.0-44.5 Bevin (slightly worse margin than last time, but the county swings are going to be ridiculous)

LA: 50.5-49.5 Edwards

MS: 53.5-45.5 Reeves (almost exact margin of MS special senate race. Counties are exactly the same too)

It seems fairly realistic.

[Frenchrepublican]

Here are county ratings I made for all three races.



And I should tell you what I'm currently expecting as well so it makes sense...

KY: 52.0-44.5 Bevin (slightly worse margin than last time, but the county swings are going to be ridiculous)

LA: 50.5-49.5 Edwards

MS: 53.5-45.5 Reeves (almost exact margin of MS special senate race. Counties are exactly the same too)

You might be too optimistic with Beshear's chances in Kentucky. I'm not sure if Elliott County will vote Democratic at this point.

He will carry it without any doubt. Last year even the sacrificial lamb who ran against Hal Rogers and who barely won 20% won close to 45% in Elliott.

[Frenchrepublican]

Here are county ratings I made for all three races.



And I should tell you what I'm currently expecting as well so it makes sense...

KY: 52.0-44.5 Bevin (slightly worse margin than last time, but the county swings are going to be ridiculous)

LA: 50.5-49.5 Edwards

MS: 53.5-45.5 Reeves (almost exact margin of MS special senate race. Counties are exactly the same too)

It seems fairly realistic.

Give me a Break! Beshear will win a lot more than just 6 Counties. Jesus.

Maybe he will win Marion county, but you're gullible if you think that Beshear won't collapse in rural areas.

[Frenchrepublican]

Beshear definitely wins Jefferson, Fayette, Franklin and probably wins Elliott, Nicholas, Marion, Woodford, Rowan, Nelson, Bourbon.

Even Conway lost them, unless Beshear wins statewide he will lose both of them.

[Frenchrepublican]

Here are county ratings I made for all three races.



And I should tell you what I'm currently expecting as well so it makes sense...

KY: 52.0-44.5 Bevin (slightly worse margin than last time, but the county swings are going to be ridiculous)

LA: 50.5-49.5 Edwards

MS: 53.5-45.5 Reeves (almost exact margin of MS special senate race. Counties are exactly the same too)

You might be too optimistic with Beshear's chances in Kentucky. I'm not sure if Elliott County will vote Democratic at this point.

He will carry it without any doubt. Last year even the sacrificial lamb who ran against Hal Rogers and who barely won 20% won close to 45% in Elliott.

But 2018 was the first time ever that Rogers won Elliott County against a Democratic opponent. And as we've seen with the Louisiana jungle primary and the NC-09 special election, rural trends against the Democrats are proceeding in full force.

If Beshear wins at least 41% statewide, he will carry Elliott.

[Frenchrepublican]

I still find it to be a shame how Edwards is in the fight of his political life, when in a less polarized environment, he would be sailing to reelection. He has none of the privileges afforded to Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan, and Phil Scott. Republican voters in Louisiana, it is clear at this point, make no distinction between him and the national Democratic Party. His support for the fetal heartbeat bill earlier this year may not save him from defeat, which makes it all a fruitless effort.

They can’t really attack him on his abortion record so they’re tying him to Clinton.

https://t.co/IJJybqNXPC

Well, it’s factually true, he supported Clinton in 2016

[Frenchrepublican]

Early voting numbers are in and they are far better for Edwards than those of the jungle primary
https://electionstatistics.sos.la.gov/Data/Early_Voting_Statistics/Statewide/2019_1116_StatewideStats.pdf

89.6 k early votes casted
Democrats : 45.3% (44% for the first day of the primary)
Republicans : 39.1% (42% for the first day of the primary)

Whites : 66%
Blacks : 30.8%

Generally speaking weekend days are more favourable to democrats than week days.

[Frenchrepublican]

I'm aware of this. But I've also argued earlier (and this may have been more relevant), that Massachusetts voters are far more willing to vote for a Republican governor than the contrary in a state such as Kentucky or Mississippi. Polarization hasn't had an even effect.

Or maybe it’s not because Democrats are "far more wiling" to vote for a Republican but simply because Republican governors in MA, MD, and VT virtually have zero power? You also conveniently tend to leave out the fact that there are more red state Democratic Senators than blue state Republican Senators whenever you complain about "polarization" among Republican voters (which is in pretty much every single one of your posts).

I totally agree with you on this. I don’t understand why so many people on this forum consider that liberal voters are thoughtful and smart people who don’t hesitate to go beyond the political affiliation of a candidate, while conservative voters are brainwashed, polarised people who refuse to vote for a good person and care only about the party of the candidate in question.
I mean, facts prove the contrary, the voters who put ’’the party over the country’’ are liberals (not conservatives), there are 4 ’’Red State’’ democratic senators while there is only 1 ’’Blue State’’ Republican senator who will almost certainly lose next year, you have 31 democrats who are elected in Trump districts while there is only 3 Republican congressmen in Clinton districts (and at least 1 of them will be replaced by a democrat next year). It’s clear that most democrats are very inflexible from a political perspective and they split their ballots far less frequently than republicans

[Frenchrepublican]

Another good day for Edwards in terms of early voting

164k ballots casted


D % : 45.67%
R % : 39.51%

Whites % : 67.07%
Blacks % : 29.75%

[Frenchrepublican]

Here is how things look compared to previous elections after two days of early voting

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1191355470495092736?s=20

[Frenchrepublican]

https://electionstatistics.sos.la.gov/Data/Early_Voting_Statistics/Statewide/2019_1116_StatewideStats.pdf

Final early voting numbers

D : 46.2%
R : 38.2%

D advantage : D+8 (was 1.5 in the primary)

Blacks : 31%
Whites : 66%


Edwards is probably winning early voting ballots 52/48

[Frenchrepublican]

Those numbers are very troubling to Rispone's chances. Maybe the Republican infighting is going to lower their turnout after all... Or some Democrats just sat on their ass in October.

JMC analysis is here :
https://winwithjmc.com/archives/8835
Yeah, these numbers are not great, unfortunately

[Frenchrepublican]

I told you JBE would win!

Go John Bel!

It's really a sad thing, even if it's not very surprising

[Frenchrepublican]

I told you JBE would win!

Go John Bel!

It's really a sad thing, even if it's not very surprising

Poor people get to keep their healthcare under Medicaid Expansion, we may get a fair map under redistricting, and the budget will remain balanced. How horrible!

A pro dem judicialmander is not a fair map

[Frenchrepublican]

I told you JBE would win!

Go John Bel!

It's really a sad thing, even if it's not very surprising

Poor people get to keep their healthcare under Medicaid Expansion, we may get a fair map under redistricting, and the budget will remain balanced. How horrible!

A pro dem judicialmander is not a fair map

And denying black voters' political voting power by drawing districts they have no choice in to elect their candidates, knowing that Louisiana has a history of voter discrimination against African Americans, is fair? Sad to see that an ostensibly principled conservative like yourself, was cheering last night for the candidate who wanted to gut Medicare/Medicaid and gut HBCUs, and is now trying to silence black political power by advocating for continued racial gerrymandering.

He is probably a Sarkozist, which would explain why he holds POC in such low regard.

I voted for Fillon in the LR primary. I was a Sarkozyst before 2010 but he was disappointing.