Who will elect a Democratic governor first: Florida or Nebraska?

[Skunk]

Nebraska and Florida last elected Democrats to the governorship in the otherwise Republican wave year of 1994. Incumbent Nebraska Governor Ben Nelson won in a landslide, carrying all but two counties in the process, while incumbent Florida Governor Lawton Chiles narrowly won re-election by less than two points over future governor Jeb Bush.

Which state will Democrats recapture first, and when? I believe Nebraska will go D in 2022 provided Trump wins re-election and we land a solid recruit such as Ann Ashford. Ron DeSantis will be re-elected by 0.001% over Nikki Fried.

[One Term Floridian]

I’d still bet on FL electing a Dem before NE. However, I think TX is more likely than FL to elect a Dem, especially when Abbot finally retires.

[Gracile]

Florida, Nebraska seems too overwhelmingly Republican for a Democratic governor win (at least in the near future).

[Dr. Arch]

FL Rs will eventually stop winning coin tosses.

[TML]

FL.

Recent statewide races in Nebraska have all been double-digit Republican blowouts, whereas in Florida they have mostly been decided by under 2 points, and according to a prominent Democratic strategist in FL, Democrats can win statewide if they both (1) have high turnout in their base areas, and (2) keep losing margins elsewhere to respectable levels - something which Obama did twice.

[Lechasseur]

Florida

But that won't happen until 2026 at the earliest imo

[Frenchrepublican]

Florida

But that won't happen until 2026 at the earliest imo

This

[Frenchrepublican]

FL obviously, but you’re delusional if you think that Fried would stand a chance against DeSantis (unless he faces some scandals)

[Rookie Yinzer]

FL obviously, but you’re delusional if you think that Fried would stand a chance against DeSantis (unless he faces some scandals)

We're delusional to think that the person who won by 0.4 could lose to a Dem that overperformed top ballot Dems? K.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

FL obviously, but you’re delusional if you think that Fried would stand a chance against DeSantis (unless he faces some scandals)

We're delusional to think that the person who won by 0.4 could lose to a Dem that overperformed top ballot Dems? K.

DeSantis regularly has high approvals, favorability, and more bipartisan support than many other governors. He's in a solid position to win re-election.

[Rookie Yinzer]

FL obviously, but you’re delusional if you think that Fried would stand a chance against DeSantis (unless he faces some scandals)

We're delusional to think that the person who won by 0.4 could lose to a Dem that overperformed top ballot Dems? K.

DeSantis regularly has high approvals, favorability, and more bipartisan support than many other governors. He's in a solid position to win re-election.

People can approve and still vote for a Democrat in a partisan election. It is not delusional to think Nikki Fried could beat him. We don't know what the world will be like in 2022.

[Donerail]

Fried overperformed b/c it was basically a single-issue race about legalizing various marijuana-adjacent products and nothing else. Good strategy to win, but not really something that she can transfer to a governor's race. Think she'd be able to beat him, but I wouldn't use the fact that she overperformed Gillum and Nelson as evidence that she'd be an all-star candidate in 2022.

[Frenchrepublican]

FL obviously, but you’re delusional if you think that Fried would stand a chance against DeSantis (unless he faces some scandals)

We're delusional to think that the person who won by 0.4 could lose to a Dem that overperformed top ballot Dems? K.

DeSantis regularly has high approvals, favorability, and more bipartisan support than many other governors. He's in a solid position to win re-election.

People can approve and still vote for a Democrat in a partisan election. It is not delusional to think Nikki Fried could beat him. We don't know what the world will be like in 2022.

When was the last time a governor with a 60/25 approval rate lost reelection ?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL, will vote Dem for Prez in 2020 and D will win in 2022

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Fried overperformed b/c it was basically a single-issue race about legalizing various marijuana-adjacent products and nothing else. Good strategy to win, but not really something that she can transfer to a governor's race. Think she'd be able to beat him, but I wouldn't use the fact that she overperformed Gillum and Nelson as evidence that she'd be an all-star candidate in 2022.

In addition, while Fried did better than Nelson and Gillum in percentages, she received some 55,000 fewer raw votes than Nelson. Everyone who won in Florida last year won by accident because FL voters and election officials are morons and don't know how elections and this whole "voting" thing work. She also had the benefit of running against a massive dork, which I imagine swayed some votes.

Fried may be the obvious choice for the Democratic nomination in FL-GOV 2022 right now, but who knows how things may be come 2022 for both Fried and DeClowntis. Speaking of:

When was the last time a governor with a 60/25 approval rate lost reelection ?

Tell me what time machine you used to find DeSantis' 2022 approval ratings.

[Frenchrepublican]

Fried overperformed b/c it was basically a single-issue race about legalizing various marijuana-adjacent products and nothing else. Good strategy to win, but not really something that she can transfer to a governor's race. Think she'd be able to beat him, but I wouldn't use the fact that she overperformed Gillum and Nelson as evidence that she'd be an all-star candidate in 2022.

In addition, while Fried did better than Nelson and Gillum in percentages, she received some 55,000 fewer raw votes than Nelson. Everyone who won in Florida last year won by accident because FL voters and election officials are morons and don't know how elections and this whole "voting" thing work. She also had the benefit of running against a massive dork, which I imagine swayed some votes.

Fried may be the obvious choice for the Democratic nomination in FL-GOV 2022 right now, but who knows how things may be come 2022 for both Fried and DeClowntis. Speaking of:

When was the last time a governor with a 60/25 approval rate lost reelection ?

Tell me what time machine you used to find DeSantis' 2022 approval ratings.

FL obviously, but you’re delusional if you think that Fried would stand a chance against DeSantis (unless he faces some scandals)

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Fried overperformed b/c it was basically a single-issue race about legalizing various marijuana-adjacent products and nothing else. Good strategy to win, but not really something that she can transfer to a governor's race. Think she'd be able to beat him, but I wouldn't use the fact that she overperformed Gillum and Nelson as evidence that she'd be an all-star candidate in 2022.

In addition, while Fried did better than Nelson and Gillum in percentages, she received some 55,000 fewer raw votes than Nelson. Everyone who won in Florida last year won by accident because FL voters and election officials are morons and don't know how elections and this whole "voting" thing work. She also had the benefit of running against a massive dork, which I imagine swayed some votes.

Fried may be the obvious choice for the Democratic nomination in FL-GOV 2022 right now, but who knows how things may be come 2022 for both Fried and DeClowntis. Speaking of:

When was the last time a governor with a 60/25 approval rate lost reelection ?

Tell me what time machine you used to find DeSantis' 2022 approval ratings.

FL obviously, but you’re delusional if you think that Fried would stand a chance against DeSantis (unless he faces some scandals)

Things other than scandals can bring down Governors.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

MC's Q2 has DeSantis at +37 net approval (57% approve and 20% disapprove). He was at +34 in Q1, so he's only gotten more popular since. He's also got +29 among independents and is only -1 among Democrats. He's the favorite to win 2022 right now barring something major.

[Frenchrepublican]

MC's Q2 has DeSantis at +37 net approval (57% approve and 20% disapprove). He was at +34 in Q1, so he's only gotten more popular since. He's also got +29 among independents and is only -1 among Democrats. He's the favorite to win 2022 right now barring something major.

It’s my point.

[Frenchrepublican]

Fried overperformed b/c it was basically a single-issue race about legalizing various marijuana-adjacent products and nothing else. Good strategy to win, but not really something that she can transfer to a governor's race. Think she'd be able to beat him, but I wouldn't use the fact that she overperformed Gillum and Nelson as evidence that she'd be an all-star candidate in 2022.

In addition, while Fried did better than Nelson and Gillum in percentages, she received some 55,000 fewer raw votes than Nelson. Everyone who won in Florida last year won by accident because FL voters and election officials are morons and don't know how elections and this whole "voting" thing work. She also had the benefit of running against a massive dork, which I imagine swayed some votes.

Fried may be the obvious choice for the Democratic nomination in FL-GOV 2022 right now, but who knows how things may be come 2022 for both Fried and DeClowntis. Speaking of:

When was the last time a governor with a 60/25 approval rate lost reelection ?

Tell me what time machine you used to find DeSantis' 2022 approval ratings.

FL obviously, but you’re delusional if you think that Fried would stand a chance against DeSantis (unless he faces some scandals)

Things other than scandals can bring down Governors.

Even if 2022 is a D wave (assuming Trump is reelected) DeSantis would be favoured.

[TDAS04]

The one that recently had a Democratic Senator named B. Nelson.

[Badger]

Fried overperformed b/c it was basically a single-issue race about legalizing various marijuana-adjacent products and nothing else. Good strategy to win, but not really something that she can transfer to a governor's race. Think she'd be able to beat him, but I wouldn't use the fact that she overperformed Gillum and Nelson as evidence that she'd be an all-star candidate in 2022.

In addition, while Fried did better than Nelson and Gillum in percentages, she received some 55,000 fewer raw votes than Nelson. Everyone who won in Florida last year won by accident because FL voters and election officials are morons and don't know how elections and this whole "voting" thing work. She also had the benefit of running against a massive dork, which I imagine swayed some votes.

Fried may be the obvious choice for the Democratic nomination in FL-GOV 2022 right now, but who knows how things may be come 2022 for both Fried and DeClowntis. Speaking of:

When was the last time a governor with a 60/25 approval rate lost reelection ?

Tell me what time machine you used to find DeSantis' 2022 approval ratings.

Look to see what former Ohio governor Ted Strickland's approval ratings were like in 2009.

[CookieDamage]

The one that recently had a Democratic Senator named B. Nelson.

[PAK Man]

Florida easily. The Florida Democratic Party is still competitive, despite what many on this forum believe. The Nebraska Democratic Party has virtually nobody.

[Xing]

The one that tends to go Republican by 1% or less, rather than the ones that regularly goes Republican by at least 15%.