KY-Clarity Campaign Labs (D): Beshear +9, Dems up in other races

[Pollster]

Link

Beshear 48
Bevin 39

Stumbo 46
Cameron 39

French Henry 52
Adams 37

[Zaybay]

Im surprised French Henry is doing the best in this poll, to be honest. Besides that, its a typical D internal.

[Matty]

Can we please get some quality polls out here?

[ElectionsGuy]

It should be worrying that Beshear can't get a majority in a Dem internal.

[Frenchrepublican]

Either these people are geniuses or they are some of the biggest trolls ever. The AG numbers are really hard to believe (even for a D internal poll)

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Yikes, Beshear is really screwed if he's not significantly outpacing the downballot Democrats.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Im surprised French Henry is doing the best in this poll, to be honest. Besides that, its a typical D internal.

Usually internals aren't even this bad.

[IceSpear]

All these races are Safe R. This will be fun to bump in November.

[Politician]

*Polls show Beshear ahead*

Atlas: Horrible news for Beshear!

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

*Polls show Beshear ahead*

Atlas: Horrible news for Beshear!

This is the McGrath +15 junk polls all over again

[IceSpear]

*Polls show Beshear ahead*

Atlas: Horrible news for Beshear!

This is the McGrath +15 junk polls all over again

I'm old enough to remember when Gov. Conway was leading in every credible (non internal) October poll and still lost by almost double digits.

[Pericles]

'Clarity' polling is false advertising, this doesn't actually make the race any clearer for me.

[Landslide Lyndon]

*Polls show Beshear ahead*

Atlas: Horrible news for Beshear!

This is the McGrath +15 junk polls all over again

That poll was actually a Republican internal.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

*Polls show Beshear ahead*

Atlas: Horrible news for Beshear!

This is the McGrath +15 junk polls all over again

That poll was actually a Republican internal.

That makes it even worse then. Polls always way overestimate Democrats in Kentucky/Appalachia.

[Xing]

Kentucky polls are about as reliable as Nevada polls. Even if we take this poll at face value (which would be stupid), it's not hard to guess which way the "undecideds" are going to break...

[Calthrina950]

All these races are Safe R. This will be fun to bump in November.

This much is true. Beshear, I suspect, will probably lose by at least 3-5% in the end, possibly even by high single digits. The other two races could very well be decided by double-digit margins. I think that the race with Daniel Cameron will be.

[Oryxslayer]

*Polls show Beshear ahead*

Atlas: Horrible news for Beshear!

Besher can win in November  and atlas will still find a way to declare Bevin the winner.

[DrScholl]

Great news! Brave Beshear will vanquish Bevin.

[Sir Mohamed]

KY polling as usual. They overestimate Dem support each and every time. If the numbers hold up to October, we can talk. But very often the polls start to change after Labor Day and late deciders (or poll respondents) heavily break for the GOP. While I think Beshear as a chance, I won't be optimistic given the polling history and partisan gravity of this state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, Bevin is gone due to Mcconnell's unpopularity, but Senate race is Safe R

[Skye]

*Polls show Beshear ahead*

Atlas: Horrible news for Beshear!

Democratic candidates in deep red states getting under 50% in internal polls should find reasons to be worried, at least.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Can we please get some quality polls out here?

You mean like that joke Gravis?

[DrScholl]

I don't know why people still think the 50% rule is relevant, because time and time again candidates who have not hit 50% in polling have gone on to win.

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't know why people still think the 50% rule is relevant, because time and time again candidates who have not hit 50% in polling have gone on to win.

Either you don't know (or don't care) about polling history in Kentucky. In some other regions/states, not the case, but here you'd have to be in denial to ignore the obvious bias. Conway was stuck getting between  42 and 45% in most polls of the race, and what did he end up with? 44% The fact that this is a Democratic internal and he's at 48% should tell us 1) this has the potential to be somewhat of a close race, maybe closer than last time... but 2) we definitely cannot say he is 'favored to win' yet based on the numbers.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Conway situation doesnt apply here, Steve Beshear is the son of his father who served as Gov. In addition, the GOP legislature have been at odds with more spending on school choice in KY. Also, McConnell has been tied closely with Bevin and is a drag on BEVIN'S Trumpian approval. Spells victory for AG Beshear