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  Why did the voter registration lead in Orange County, California switch so fast?
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Author Topic: Why did the voter registration lead in Orange County, California switch so fast?  (Read 1417 times)
Contest of Truth: Science Beats Religion
Solid4096
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« on: August 22, 2019, 03:02:22 pm »

In Orange County, California, Democrats flipped the Presidential Result in 2016, and took the voter registration lead in 2019. This is a gap of 3 years. Its shocking how fast this took when comparing it to various situations in Appalachia.

There are many Counties in Appalachia where Democratic voter registration leads have held themselves for decades after the County started voting Republican at the Presidential level and never looked back in that front. Democrats still have voter registration leads in these places.

In West Virginia
The following Counties last voted D for president in 1996, and currently have D voter registration leads:
Cabell, Calhoun, Clay, Gilmer, Greenbrier, Hancock, Hardy, Marshall, Mason, Mercer, Nicholas, Ohio, Pendleton, Pleasants, Pocahontas, Raleigh, Randolph, Summers, Taylor, Tucker, Wayne, Wetzel

The state of West Virginia currently lacks longer streaks where Democrats still have the lead.
But it gets even slower in Kentucky for things to switch.

In Kentucky
Hardin County as an example last voted Democratic in 1976 yet still has a D voter registration lead.
I am not going to go through and list all the crazy examples in Kentucky, because that would be extremely difficult, but there are at least 2 other example of Counties that last voted Democratic in 1980 that still have D voter registration leads too.

I am not going to even bother checking Tennessee or Virginia right now, but there are probably some in those states too.
Maybe I could even find a few elsewhere as well, though I doubt it.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #1 on: August 22, 2019, 05:00:46 pm »
« Edited: August 22, 2019, 05:05:19 pm by Frenchrepublican »

In WV many ''new republican voters'' are former democrats who think that their former party has become ''too far to left'', but these people have been registered as dems for most of their life and are either too lazy or don't care enough to change their registration.

In Orange county, these ''new democrats'' are generally young people of colour who are registering for the first time, and as they hate republicans they are chosing to register as democrats. The counter example of this phenomenon is Chester county, PA. There democrats have made substantial electoral gains but their registration numbers are still laging republican ones, why ? Because many ''new democrats'' are former republicans who are too lazy to change how they are registered.    

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Reluctant Berniebro
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« Reply #2 on: August 22, 2019, 05:36:40 pm »

In addition to what has been said already, I would imagine that the more highly educated and politically engaged you are the more likely you are to care enough to update your voter registration.

For example, who do you think is more likely to care enough to update their voter registration, Harley Rouda or these people?

https://youtu.be/IhporHhKbJA
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Skunk
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« Reply #3 on: August 22, 2019, 06:40:11 pm »

In addition to what has been said already, I would imagine that the more highly educated and politically engaged you are the more likely you are to care enough to update your voter registration.

For example, who do you think is more likely to care enough to update their voter registration, Harley Rouda or these people?

https://youtu.be/IhporHhKbJA
"I voted Hillary, and I haven't given up on her yet."

Me neither, redneck lady. Me neither. Purple heart
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Reluctant Berniebro
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« Reply #4 on: August 22, 2019, 06:51:59 pm »

In addition to what has been said already, I would imagine that the more highly educated and politically engaged you are the more likely you are to care enough to update your voter registration.

For example, who do you think is more likely to care enough to update their voter registration, Harley Rouda or these people?

https://youtu.be/IhporHhKbJA
"I voted Hillary, and I haven't given up on her yet."

Me neither, redneck lady. Me neither. Purple heart

LOL, something tells me she gave up on her in 2016 if not sooner. Tongue
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АverroŽs 🦉
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« Reply #5 on: August 23, 2019, 04:27:46 pm »

Orange County has grown much, much faster than most counties with dwindling Democratic registration. Registration will naturally turn over faster when it's not mostly a matter of waiting for ancestral voters to die off.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #6 on: August 23, 2019, 05:33:42 pm »

In addition to what has been said already, I would imagine that the more highly educated and politically engaged you are the more likely you are to care enough to update your voter registration.

For example, who do you think is more likely to care enough to update their voter registration, Harley Rouda or these people?

https://youtu.be/IhporHhKbJA
"I voted Hillary, and I haven't given up on her yet."

Me neither, redneck lady. Me neither. Purple heart

LOL, something tells me she gave up on her in 2016 if not sooner. Tongue

Wasn't there that website like Hillary for president 08 that is now a full on Trump supporter site managed by the same person?
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Reluctant Berniebro
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« Reply #7 on: August 23, 2019, 08:51:57 pm »

In addition to what has been said already, I would imagine that the more highly educated and politically engaged you are the more likely you are to care enough to update your voter registration.

For example, who do you think is more likely to care enough to update their voter registration, Harley Rouda or these people?

https://youtu.be/IhporHhKbJA
"I voted Hillary, and I haven't given up on her yet."

Me neither, redneck lady. Me neither. Purple heart

LOL, something tells me she gave up on her in 2016 if not sooner. Tongue

Wasn't there that website like Hillary for president 08 that is now a full on Trump supporter site managed by the same person?

Yeah.

https://www.hillaryis44.org/
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #8 on: August 23, 2019, 11:04:33 pm »

Because people from Orange County are smart.


Source: myself, OC/Cory Booker, and King Lear.
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Wazza
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« Reply #9 on: August 24, 2019, 06:39:41 am »
« Edited: August 24, 2019, 06:45:27 am by Wazza stands with Sanchez »

OC has undergone significant demographic shifts whilst Demosaur counties have experienced little to no change in their demographic makeup. In OC the Old guard suburbanites that voted for Goldwater, Reagan and Bush are being replaced and outvoted by neo-yuppies and hispanics, whilst in places like Jackson County it was more due to voters changing how they vote in presidential races.

Additionally, many of these people still feel a connection to the Democratic Party which is why Manchin (pre-2018) and Tomblin performed best in Southern West Virginia in 2010/2011/2012. Jay Rockefeller also performed best in Coal County in 2008.
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Grassr00ts
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« Reply #10 on: August 25, 2019, 08:19:50 pm »

Because the democratic party is increasingly operating in the interests of rich assholes, and republicans less of so.
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Grand Mufti of Northern Virginia
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« Reply #11 on: August 25, 2019, 09:03:53 pm »

Because the democratic party is increasingly operating in the interests of rich assholes, and republicans less of so.

Asians and Hispanics in Orange County are 'rich assholes'?  
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #12 on: August 25, 2019, 09:41:14 pm »

Because the democratic party is increasingly operating in the interests of rich assholes, and republicans less of so.

Republicans are currently operating solely at the behest of one particular rich asshole.
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Karpatsky
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« Reply #13 on: August 26, 2019, 07:36:54 am »

Because the democratic party is increasingly operating in the interests of rich assholes, and republicans less of so.

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WWC Populists for Bloomberg
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« Reply #14 on: August 26, 2019, 07:38:02 am »

Because the democratic party is increasingly operating in the interests of rich assholes, and republicans less of so.
LMAO
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Councilor Gracile
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« Reply #15 on: August 26, 2019, 09:20:25 am »

Because the democratic party is increasingly operating in the interests of rich assholes, and republicans less of so.

The super wealthy areas of Orange County are still fairly Republican. The shift was largely  because of relatively lower income non-white residents making up a larger share of the electorate.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #16 on: August 26, 2019, 10:02:27 am »

Because the democratic party is increasingly operating in the interests of rich assholes, and republicans less of so.

The super wealthy areas of Orange County are still fairly Republican. The shift was largely  because of relatively lower income non-white residents making up a larger share of the electorate.


The result was mostly because of the non white residents voting D at a large percent

Howver the largest shift outside the Vietnamese are probably these super white rich Republican areas.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #17 on: August 26, 2019, 01:15:35 pm »

Because the democratic party is increasingly operating in the interests of rich assholes, and republicans less of so.

#Populism and all, but ... "less of so"?!  Lmao
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #18 on: August 26, 2019, 01:19:45 pm »

Because the democratic party is increasingly operating in the interests of rich assholes, and republicans less of so.

The super wealthy areas of Orange County are still fairly Republican. The shift was largely  because of relatively lower income non-white residents making up a larger share of the electorate.

Plenty of rich white areas shifted considerably Dem in both 2016 and 2018. Harley Rouda received 46.6% in 82% non-hispanic white Newport Beach. That was absolutely unthinkable to anyone in 2014.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #19 on: August 26, 2019, 05:41:54 pm »

The same reason why California as a whole keeps shifting Democratic.

I have one thing to say. Goodbye Orange County, Thanks for supporting us for almost 80 years! But it seems we've gone our separate ways. Thankfully, There are other Republican strongholds in California so we haven't been entirely deserted in the state yet.
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Andy Beshearís Campaign Manager
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« Reply #20 on: August 26, 2019, 09:35:52 pm »

In addition to what has been said already, I would imagine that the more highly educated and politically engaged you are the more likely you are to care enough to update your voter registration.

For example, who do you think is more likely to care enough to update their voter registration, Harley Rouda or these people?

https://youtu.be/IhporHhKbJA

Pretty much everything you said is on-point, and this is kind of off-topic, but your post is what led me to research more about Harley Rouda and find out just now he went to the University of Kentucky. I guess that's kind of an odd coincidence considering what we're talking about here.
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