MS (Hickman Polls, D Internal): Hood +1

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Hood: 43%
Reeves: 42%

600 LV, +/- 4.0%, Conducted August 11-15, released August 28
https://perma.cc/R2HD-CSHP

[Matty]

holy crap, awful poll for reeves.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

holy crap, awful poll for reeves.

It's a D internal that was conducted before the runoff and has Hood in the low 40s, only ahead by one with a large MOE. Hardly a bad poll for Reeves.

[ElectionsGuy]

Yeah, I agree. Hood probably won't get less than 43%.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Reeves 55%
Hood 45%

It's inevitable.

[Pericles]

Hickman lol. This is a D internal, so Hood is probably losing by a few points. There are also a ton of undecideds, so that reduces the usefulness of the poll.

[Politician]

So in reality, he's probably losing by around 5 points.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

I wouldn't even be surprised if it's something like 57% Reeves, 43% Hood. I do think it'll be better for the GOP than Hyde-Smith's 54-46 win last year.

[MT Treasurer]

Consistent with a Tossup/Tilt R race, but it’s cute that people are citing this as evidence for their theory (read: wishful thinking) that this is a Safe R race and that Hood will do worse than Espy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Hood doesnt reach 50%, R state legislature will put Reeves into office

[Young Conservative]

Lean R.

[Mr.Phips]

This will be a 56-44 race for Reeves.

[Pandaguineapig]

Consistent with a Tossup/Tilt R race, but it’s cute that people are citing this as evidence for their theory (read: wishful thinking) that this is a Safe R race and that Hood will do worse than Espy.

The electorate this fall will likely be better for Republicans than last year's runoff, that's where most of those predictions are coming from

[Suburbia]

Hood wins 51%-48% in November, he better keep it up.

[Frenchrepublican]

Consistent with a Tossup/Tilt R race, but it’s cute that people are citing this as evidence for their theory (read: wishful thinking) that this is a Safe R race and that Hood will do worse than Espy.

Because you are giving any credibility to a D internal poll ? By the way Hood was up by 5 in his previous internal poll so even if this poll is accurate, the trend is not good for him

[MT Treasurer]

Because you are giving any credibility to a D internal poll ? By the way Hood was up by 5 in his previous internal poll so even if this poll is accurate, the trend is not good for him

I mean, this isn’t less believable than that hilarious SurveyMonkey poll or all the Reeves internals. I don’t even deny that Reeves is slightly favored, but I won’t be surprised if Hood eeks out a narrow win either.

The electorate this fall will likely be better for Republicans than last year's runoff, that's where most of those predictions are coming from

Err, what makes you so sure the electorate will be more R-friendly this year? I guess it’s possible, but even if that’s the case, it will probably be offset by Hood's crossover appeal compared to Espy, so it’s hard to see him losing by more than Espy.

[Calthrina950]

Because you are giving any credibility to a D internal poll ? By the way Hood was up by 5 in his previous internal poll so even if this poll is accurate, the trend is not good for him

I mean, this isn’t less believable than that hilarious SurveyMonkey poll or all the Reeves internals. I don’t even deny that Reeves is slightly favored, but I won’t be surprised if Hood eeks out a narrow win either.

The electorate this fall will likely be better for Republicans than last year's runoff, that's where most of those predictions are coming from

Err, what makes you so sure the electorate will be more R-friendly this year? I guess it’s possible, but even if that’s the case, it will probably be offset by Hood's crossover appeal compared to Espy, so it’s hard to see him losing by more than Espy.

Generally agree with this post. While I think Reeves is favored, and that he will win the election in November, I also believe that Hood will make this a single-digit race, and that he still has an outside chance of winning, if he can somehow replicate, one last time, the success that he has had in all of his prior AG races.  In the end, however, Mississippi's racial polarization, intensified by the trends of national polarization which we have seen, will put Reeves over the finish line.

[Pandaguineapig]

Because you are giving any credibility to a D internal poll ? By the way Hood was up by 5 in his previous internal poll so even if this poll is accurate, the trend is not good for him

I mean, this isn’t less believable than that hilarious SurveyMonkey poll or all the Reeves internals. I don’t even deny that Reeves is slightly favored, but I won’t be surprised if Hood eeks out a narrow win either.

The electorate this fall will likely be better for Republicans than last year's runoff, that's where most of those predictions are coming from

Err, what makes you so sure the electorate will be more R-friendly this year? I guess it’s possible, but even if that’s the case, it will probably be offset by Hood's crossover appeal compared to Espy, so it’s hard to see him losing by more than Espy.

The election in the runoff had a very high minority turnout (partly from Hyde-Smith's late comments) Hinds County made up a much larger portion of the runoff electorate than it does most gubernatorial election

[TDAS04]

Hood likely loses, but I could see him getting 47 or even 48%.

[IceSpear]

It'd be nice to get a real poll here.

I expect Hood to do better than Espy, but it's not hard to imagine a scenario where he does worse. Ex: Some combination of the below factors:

1) Hood fails to galvanize the black vote whereas Espy/CHS did
2) Hood's former crossover support evaporates
3) Political environment/turnout improves for the GOP

[DINGO Joe]

Great name for a pollster BTW.  Can't wait for the Hickman WV polls.