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  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  Will A O C ever be president of the United States?
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Author Topic: Will A O C ever be president of the United States?  (Read 908 times)
bronz4141
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« on: August 30, 2019, 11:33:52 am »

I don't think so.

She will not be eligible in 2024.

She won't run in 2028, 2032, 2036, or 2040.

I can see her running against Schumer or Gillibrand in a primary challenge for Senate in 2022 or 2024, or maybe for governor in 2022 or 2026.

Can she even hold on to her House seat? Will the NYS redistricting map people try to eliminate her district?
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TML
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« Reply #1 on: August 30, 2019, 12:45:23 pm »

It depends on what kind of political climate exists 10-20 years from now.

If the political climate is still anti-establishment, then she has a good chance of winning if she were to run.

If the political climate reverts to one resembling the late 20th century, it would be a different story.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #2 on: August 30, 2019, 01:10:12 pm »

AOC turns 35 in October 2024, so she is eligible to serve as President beginning in 2025.

If 2024 is an open contest on the Dem side she'll definitely run and will be a top-tier candidate. 

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Del Tachi
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« Reply #3 on: August 30, 2019, 01:10:52 pm »

AOC turns 35 in October 2024, so she is eligible to serve as President beginning in 2025.

If 2024 is an open contest on the Dem side she'll definitely run and will be a top-tier candidate. 

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MarkD
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« Reply #4 on: August 30, 2019, 04:12:36 pm »


Me neither.

She won't run in 2028, 2032, 2036, or 2040.

Oh, I think she might run, but she can't win. She's too extreme left.

I can see her running against Schumer or Gillibrand in a primary challenge for Senate in 2022 or 2024, or maybe for governor in 2022 or 2026.

Agree, but she won't win if she tries to challenge incumbent Senators. She'd be better off waiting for an open Governor's seat.

Can she even hold on to her House seat? Will the NYS redistricting map people try to eliminate her district?

Yes, she can hold on to her House seat for a long time to come, but no, the VRA will likely inhibit or prohibit any elimination of her district.
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Anarcho-Statism
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« Reply #5 on: September 01, 2019, 07:48:50 am »

Depends on whether or not she sees her future in an executive or legislative role, and if she can win.
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Delegate Weatherboy1102
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« Reply #6 on: September 01, 2019, 10:27:25 am »

It depends on what kind of political climate exists 10-20 years from now.

If the political climate is still anti-establishment, then she has a good chance of winning if she were to run.

If the political climate reverts to one resembling the late 20th century, it would be a different story.
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Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #7 on: September 01, 2019, 12:25:51 pm »

I think she's likely to overreach and blow her shot, either for President or in trying to primary Schumer or Cuomo.
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Reluctant Berniebro
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« Reply #8 on: September 01, 2019, 04:26:59 pm »

Almost certainly not. But that's the same answer you'd give almost every person/politician. If the stars aligned she definitely could be.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #9 on: September 01, 2019, 07:53:17 pm »

If Biden or Harris loses in 2020, she's an automatic frontrunner for 2024.
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« Reply #10 on: September 03, 2019, 12:43:52 am »

Almoft certainly not
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KYWildman
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« Reply #11 on: September 03, 2019, 10:56:04 pm »

If Bernie or Warren is the nominee and LOSES, probably no, because that brand of politics will be pretty much discredited.

If Bernie or Warren is the nominee and WINS, still probably no, because she won't have an opening in 2024 and probably wouldn't win in 2028 whether or not they were re-elected. Depending on how the party and/or country changes over that time, she MIGHT have a shot farther down the road.

If Biden is the nominee and WINS, probably no, both because she won't have an opening in 2024 and because the old school brand of Democratic politics will have proven it can still succeed.

If Biden is the nominee and LOSES, that's her best chance. She'll have an opening in 2028, and will be able to effectively argue that Democrats need to move in a different direction after two failed "establishment" candidates in a row. I probably wouldn't favor her to win in the general election, though she would have a decent shot of winning the primary. It's too far out to say for sure, of course. A lot can change.

That goes both ways, though: For all we know AOC could end up moving towards the center over her time in the House. Wouldn't be the first time that's happened. She might end up finding herself more at home in the legislature, or she might turn out to just be a flash in the pan whose 15 minutes run out before she's even eligible to run. Or she might well be the future of the party after all, and could run and win.

Who knows? It may be fun to speculate about these things, but it's impossible to tell when we're talking about the relatively distant future. Especially in politics, where it's notoriously difficult to predict which way the winds will blow.
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« Reply #12 on: September 04, 2019, 05:09:08 pm »

Only a fool would think she has a chance.
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LCameronOR
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« Reply #13 on: September 04, 2019, 07:49:40 pm »

No.

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=9r8
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Figueira
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« Reply #14 on: September 04, 2019, 08:02:45 pm »

Probably not. The odds of any given person becoming President are pretty slim.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #15 on: September 04, 2019, 10:25:14 pm »

I hope not.
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TheFonz
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« Reply #16 on: September 05, 2019, 07:54:40 am »
« Edited: September 22, 2019, 09:38:30 pm by TheFonz »

I still have enough faith in my country to believe she'd be absolutely crushed in any realistic election scenario.
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McNukes™ #NYCMMWasAHero
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« Reply #17 on: September 05, 2019, 10:53:47 am »

I hope she becomes the William Jennings Bryan of the 21st century, winning the Democratic nomination again and again starting from the ripe young age of 35.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #18 on: September 05, 2019, 09:27:14 pm »

Probably not, although she does have a better chance than any given Democratic member of Congress.
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« Reply #19 on: September 06, 2019, 01:30:29 am »

Only a fool would think she has a chance.

Only a fool would have said Trump had a chance just a few years ago.

Again, a lot can change and it's way too early to be making definitive statements like that.

Again, I do not think it is likely. But then again it's not likely that any given individual will be President. It's impossible to say, but just as foolish to dismiss the possibility entirely as it is to embrace it. Especially after what happened in 2016, I don't know how anyone could think anything is off the table anymore.
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« Reply #20 on: September 12, 2019, 01:40:02 pm »

If the nation drifts left, so will AOC. So, I doubt it.
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Beef
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« Reply #21 on: September 13, 2019, 03:40:59 pm »

Only a fool would think she has a chance.

Only a fool would have said Trump had a chance just a few years ago.


The Republican analog of AOC isn't Trump. It's hard to say what would be, since the far left is characterized by believing in more governmental activism than their colleagues, and almost all Republicans on the federal level believe in zero governmental activism.

The GOP AOC would be someone who wanted to privatize all public primary and secondary schools nationwide, completely dismantle the EPA, USDA, FTC, and FDA, remove all minimum wage laws, and turn off all federal highway funds in favor of a private, for-profit corporation. No one like that would ever be elected, since there would be way too many interests lined up against him.
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slothdem
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« Reply #22 on: September 14, 2019, 02:56:52 pm »

The GOP AOC would be someone who wanted to privatize all public primary and secondary schools nationwide, completely dismantle the EPA, USDA, FTC, and FDA, remove all minimum wage laws, and turn off all federal highway funds in favor of a private, for-profit corporation.

So almost every single member of the House GOP?
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DeSantis2024
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« Reply #23 on: September 14, 2019, 04:14:37 pm »

Only a fool would think she has a chance.

Only a fool would have said Trump had a chance just a few years ago.


The Republican analog of AOC isn't Trump. It's hard to say what would be, since the far left is characterized by believing in more governmental activism than their colleagues, and almost all Republicans on the federal level believe in zero governmental activism.

The GOP AOC would be someone who wanted to privatize all public primary and secondary schools nationwide, completely dismantle the EPA, USDA, FTC, and FDA, remove all minimum wage laws, and turn off all federal highway funds in favor of a private, for-profit corporation. No one like that would ever be elected, since there would be way too many interests lined up against him.

Sounds like a libertarian............
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sg0508
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« Reply #24 on: September 21, 2019, 03:09:52 pm »

Never say never, as the "old white vote" dies and Millennials and Gen-Z gain more and more power.  They have little loyalty as a whole to old-school economics and capitalism.
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