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February 18, 2020, 11:41:55 am
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  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: VirginiŠ)
  When will the next two-term president be elected?
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Question: In what year will America's next two-term president win his/her first term in office?
#1
He's already been elected-- DJT will win re-election
 
#2
2020-- the Democrat who wins will be a two-term president
 
#3
2024-- the Democrat who wins in 2020 will pass the torch to a younger Democrat
 
#4
2024-- the Democrat who wins in 2020 will be defeated by a Republican, who will win a second term in office
 
#5
2028-- we'll have three one-term presidents in a row
 
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Author Topic: When will the next two-term president be elected?  (Read 947 times)
Smiling John
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« on: August 31, 2019, 01:50:14 pm »

I've been thinking about this for a while-- whether or not Biden would seek re-election if he won, and whether or not he or his successor would be able to win re-election for the Democratic Party in the White House. What does Atlas think? Personally, I can see a Democrat winning in 2020 but losing to a Republican in 2024... still, I don't know if that Republican would win re-election, so I might have to vote for option 5-- Trump in 2016, a Democrat in 2020, and a Republican in 2024, each serving only one term.
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Cassandra
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« Reply #1 on: August 31, 2019, 01:58:59 pm »

I expect Biden/Warren/Harris to lose in 2024 to a Republican who goes on to win reelection in 2028.
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Fubart Solman 🥀
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« Reply #2 on: August 31, 2019, 02:02:09 pm »

Tough to say, really. I donít think that Trump will get re-elected, so option 1 is out.

At this point, Biden still has the best chance of being the Dem nominee imo. I somehow doubt that he has two terms in him. That being said, Iím also not 100% confident that a Dem elected in 2024 could serve two consecutive terms following a single Biden term. Being stymied by the senate (at least 2021-2023, I think) for at least two years is gonna hurt the Dems a lot, I think. Iíd guess 2024 or 2028. That being said, I think that someone like Warren could do two terms if she wins the nomination next year.

Trump 2017-2021
Biden 2021-2025
Dem 2025-20??

Or

Trump 2017-2021
Warren 2021-2029
Huh?

Iím leaning options 2, 3, or 5. I guess Iíll go with option 3?
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #3 on: August 31, 2019, 02:34:38 pm »

I think the combination of polarization and economic/political instability in the next ten years or so will result in three one term presidents in a row.

If a Democrat is elected in 2020 and a recession happens under her/his watch, the Democrats will lose in 2024 to a Trump-esque Republican, who will probably be very unpopular and cause more instability, causing a Democratic win in 2028.

If a recession happens before Nov. 2020 and a Democrat wins, I still think polarization will give an edge to the Republicans in '24 since not much progressive legislation will get passed.
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #4 on: August 31, 2019, 02:43:55 pm »

Already here.

Warren/Bernie have mutually canceled the other from getting the Reagan-y realignment thing going,  Biden stifles any other path forward, The Trump Cult is in full, and the statewide GOP offices are flexing all the muscles needed to disenfranchise.

Unless Trump loses by 6, he's probably a shoo-in to win.
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SN2903
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« Reply #5 on: August 31, 2019, 02:52:31 pm »

Trump will win reelection
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #6 on: August 31, 2019, 04:00:32 pm »


No, the Dem will win in 2020 and carry 2 terms
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538Electoral
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« Reply #7 on: August 31, 2019, 04:52:55 pm »

2016. I believe Trump will be re-elected.
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Councilor Gracile
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« Reply #8 on: August 31, 2019, 04:54:40 pm »

It's not that hard to imagine. Trump has about a 50-50 chance of getting reelected in my opinion, and if the next Dem president is younger than Biden I can see them being a two-term president as well.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #9 on: August 31, 2019, 05:05:00 pm »

Trump has a 40% chance; as a result, of low quality Senate candidates in IL, VA, MN, NH, CO and MI. In 2016, Trump had top tier Senate candidates in WI, PA, IA, OH and FL: Toomey, Portman and Rubio.

Trump isnt gonna win MI on John James with 9% of the black vote
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Chris B
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« Reply #10 on: August 31, 2019, 05:08:44 pm »

I think it'll happen next year via either Trump being reelected or his Dem successor winning in 2024.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #11 on: August 31, 2019, 05:31:53 pm »

Biden, Sanders or Warren passes the torch to a younger Democrat in August 2024

I really don't think Trump would run again in 2020, especially if the economy falters. Trump doesn't want to be seen as a "loser" and if he loses reelection, he will look like a loser.

Pence would be the sacrificial lamb.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #12 on: August 31, 2019, 05:38:06 pm »

Joe Biden is gonna stay, he is just as old as Trump
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beaver2.0
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« Reply #13 on: August 31, 2019, 05:54:52 pm »

2016.
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #14 on: August 31, 2019, 10:26:24 pm »

I still think Trump wins re-election, but heíll almost certainly be succeeded by a two-term Democrat.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #15 on: August 31, 2019, 10:37:16 pm »

I still think Trump wins re-election, but heíll almost certainly be succeeded by a two-term Democrat.

You think Trunp gets reelected but he passed a tax cut for the rich. Affordable housing is where poor minorities live in and around big cities and they are located in Philly, MKE and DTW. The Johnson vote isnt gonna be there for Trump in 2020
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« Reply #16 on: August 31, 2019, 11:28:04 pm »

Hopefully 2024 or 2028. Preferably 2028, as I don't want the streak of two-term presidencies encompassing the whole of this century's first quarter.
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pops
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« Reply #17 on: August 31, 2019, 11:31:42 pm »

Trump will be re-elected, then Dems will serve two terms followed by a third Dem term, then two Republican terms, then who knows
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #18 on: August 31, 2019, 11:45:20 pm »

2020: Warren
2024: Warren
2028: Castro
2032: Castro
2036: DeSantis
2040: Ocasio-Cortez
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Andy Beshearís Campaign Manager
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« Reply #19 on: September 01, 2019, 12:07:50 am »

Obviously Biden will win and PASS THE TORCH to Eric Swalwell.
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Councilor S019
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« Reply #20 on: September 01, 2019, 01:47:01 am »

I say 2024

Biden likely wins in 2020, however, by 2024 there will have been four years of demographic change, which definitely flips AZ and GA, and probably TX, thus, it is impossible for Republicans to get to 270, but I expect TX to finally flip in either 2024 or 2028, also the Rust Belt trends probably won't be completely maxed out, so the Rust Belt string could still vote Democrat. All of the above factors make a 2024 and 2028 Dem victory likely
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #21 on: September 01, 2019, 02:28:11 pm »

2020: Warren
2024: Warren
2028: Castro
2032: Castro
2036: DeSantis
2040: Ocasio-Cortez

There's no way the US is going to have 16 years of Democratic presidents. We're too polarized for that right now.
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bagelman
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« Reply #22 on: September 01, 2019, 02:40:15 pm »

Bernie or Sanders would pass the torch, and they will oppose Ron DeSantis in 2024. But who wins and whether or not they win in '28 is a tossup.
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АverroŽs 🦉
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« Reply #23 on: September 01, 2019, 03:16:13 pm »

If Joe Biden wins a majority of electors on election night, but dies before they meet to vote, would his replacement count as "getting elected" for the purposes of this question?
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Smiling John
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« Reply #24 on: September 01, 2019, 05:28:03 pm »

If Joe Biden wins a majority of electors on election night, but dies before they meet to vote, would his replacement count as "getting elected" for the purposes of this question?

Hmm, I didn't even consider someone dying in office...
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