When will the next two-term president be elected?
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  When will the next two-term president be elected?
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Poll
Question: In what year will America's next two-term president win his/her first term in office?
#1
He's already been elected-- DJT will win re-election
 
#2
2020-- the Democrat who wins will be a two-term president
 
#3
2024-- the Democrat who wins in 2020 will pass the torch to a younger Democrat
 
#4
2024-- the Democrat who wins in 2020 will be defeated by a Republican, who will win a second term in office
 
#5
2028-- we'll have three one-term presidents in a row
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 124

Author Topic: When will the next two-term president be elected?  (Read 4236 times)
Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #25 on: September 01, 2019, 06:22:32 PM »

It's way too early to say.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #26 on: September 12, 2019, 06:26:05 PM »
« Edited: September 15, 2019, 01:47:09 PM by Mister Mets »

The most likely of the outcomes is probably 2020, since it just requires one election to go a particular way. You could think Trump's odds are less than even but that the other individual outcomes are less likely.

Let's assume Trump's odds of winning reelection are as low as thirty percent.

This would mean a seventy percent chance Democrats win. But with Biden and Sanders as frontrunners, you could argue a fifty percent chance Democrats nominate someone who won't run for a second term. This would mean a 35 percent chance a Democrat is running for reelection in 2020, and even if their odds of winning would be as high as 80 percent, that's still only a 28 percent chance of a reelected Democrat in 2024.

If Biden or Sanders is a one-termer, the Democratic nominee could still be elected in 2024, but their chances of winning reelection would likely be lower because they have to hold on to power longer (there is a counterargument that demographics will help Democrats significantly and that the party should do better in future elections.)

A Republican elected in 2024 after one term of Biden or Sanders or an unpopular Democratic president would likely be favored to win reelection, as would a Republican after two total terms of two Democratic Presidents. But that requires several other stuff to occur. If there's a 35 percent chance of Biden or Sanders being the next President, and the next election is truly even, and an additional 6.5% chance that a Republican beats an incumbent Democrat in 2020, that means a 24% chance of a Republican winning in 2024, which is necessary when calculating the odds the person has of serving two full terms.

My guess for odds breakdowns on the options...
* He's already been elected-- DJT will win re-election (40%)
* 2020-- the Democrat who wins will be a two-term president (13%)
* 2024- the Democrat who wins in 2020 will pass the torch to a younger Democrat (10%)
* 2024- the Democrat who wins in 2020 will be defeated by a Republican, who will win a second term in office (12%)
* 2028-- we'll have three one-term presidents in a row (20%)
* Bonus- It'll take even longer. (5%)

2028 may be a bit underrated, as there are a few potential outcomes (Biden/ Sanders wins followed by Republican who loses to a Democrat; Biden/ Sanders win followed by a Democrat who fails to keep the White House in the party for three terms)

Four in a row is also conceivable (Biden/ Sanders don't run for reelection followed by Republican who loses to weak Democrat; Biden/ Sanders are followed by Democrat who loses to weak Republican
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #27 on: September 13, 2019, 05:30:32 PM »

2024.  I expect Trump to lose to Biden in 2020 and a Republican to win an open election in 2024 and get reelected in 2028.
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mianfei
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« Reply #28 on: September 14, 2019, 05:42:42 AM »

I still think Trump wins re-election, but he’ll almost certainly be succeeded by a two-term Democrat.
That is what my mother and brother say – they feel that no Democrat running has the ability to appeal to the public enough like Trump does.

Although they hate Trump viciously, my mother and brother believe that Trump is extremely good at appealing with simple, catchy slogans to the poor white public of rural America, and that the Democrats have no one to counter it in 2020.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #29 on: September 14, 2019, 12:20:14 PM »

I'm thinking 2032 actually.  Trump reelected, followed by a 2 term Dem who narrowly gets their VP elected in 2032.  The major economic downturns of the era happen in the early 2020's and mid 2030's. 
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John Dule
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« Reply #30 on: January 21, 2021, 05:07:09 AM »

I'm going to bump this thread to see how the results change. You can change your votes as you see fit, but I have a screenshot of the original results. Interesting that as of August 2019, about 1/3rd of Atlas thought Trump would win reelection.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #31 on: January 21, 2021, 10:22:43 AM »

Biden gets reelected in 2024, serves out his term, leaving office in January 2029 at the age of 86, and lives to be over 100.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #32 on: January 21, 2021, 11:08:47 AM »

I'm going to bump this thread to see how the results change. You can change your votes as you see fit, but I have a screenshot of the original results. Interesting that as of August 2019, about 1/3rd of Atlas thought Trump would win reelection.

Late 2019 was his peak.  We were heading for Republican 1996 if the economic held up (obviously it didn't). 
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redjohn
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« Reply #33 on: January 21, 2021, 12:23:07 PM »

I'm going to bump this thread to see how the results change. You can change your votes as you see fit, but I have a screenshot of the original results. Interesting that as of August 2019, about 1/3rd of Atlas thought Trump would win reelection.

Late 2019 was his peak.  We were heading for Republican 1996 if the economic held up (obviously it didn't). 

Same thought process here, the odds were heavily in Trump's favor from at least 2019 to March 2020. If Trump didn't shoot himself in the foot with the COVID response (and his gross insensitivity to the BLM movement), he would've pretty easily won re-election.
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John Dule
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« Reply #34 on: January 21, 2021, 03:58:10 PM »

I have to say, after mulling it over a little I am sticking with Option #5. I still think Biden is not going to run for re-election (of course, I didn't think he'd run in 2020 to begin with, so take this with a grain of salt). If he chooses to go only one term, he won't announce it until 2023. I think that the winner of 2024, whether it's a Democrat succeeding Biden or a Republican beating that successor, will go on to be a one-termer as well.
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #35 on: January 26, 2021, 02:27:56 AM »

#3
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #36 on: January 26, 2021, 10:16:59 AM »

I expect a Republican to win an open election in 2024 and get reelected in 2028.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #37 on: January 26, 2021, 11:02:04 AM »

This is now very complicated.  If Biden runs, he is probably favored, so we may have just done it in 2020.  If Biden retires and Harris runs and wins, the Republican is likely to be favored in 2028 based on recent history.  If a Republican wins in 2024, I expect them to be favored for reelection in 2028.  For the first time since the 1920's, 3 one-term/one-election presidents in a row looks like a real possibility.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #38 on: January 26, 2021, 02:15:03 PM »

Sticking with my same prediction from 2018. Harris runs and wins in 2024 and wins re-election in 2028.
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