I'm going to bump this thread to see how the results change. You can change your votes as you see fit, but I have a screenshot of the original results. Interesting that as of August 2019, about 1/3rd of Atlas thought Trump would win reelection.
Late 2019 was his peak. We were heading for Republican 1996 if the economic held up (obviously it didn't).
Same thought process here, the odds were heavily in Trump's favor from at least 2019 to March 2020. If Trump didn't shoot himself in the foot with the COVID response (and his gross insensitivity to the BLM movement), he would've pretty easily won re-election.
Poll
