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  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, Senator ON Progressive)
  Obama Ohio
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Plankton5165
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« on: September 01, 2019, 03:18:12 am »

Were you ever able to imagine Obama losing Ohio? Sure doesn't seem like it.
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Bern Notice
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« Reply #1 on: September 01, 2019, 03:43:27 am »

Obama didn't poll too well in OH for most of 2008, so it was easy to imagine him losing it. There was a strong backlash against RTW in OH in late 2011, and Obama was leading Romney pretty consistently there for most of 2012, it didn't really get that close until after the first debate. Some even speculated early on that Obama could lose PA but still win OH (he was polling poorly in PA in late 2011).
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Plankton5165
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« Reply #2 on: September 02, 2019, 08:38:06 pm »

Oh yeah, now I remember Wolf Blitzer say Obama was "very stressed about Ohio".
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #3 on: September 02, 2019, 10:07:34 pm »
« Edited: September 02, 2019, 10:10:51 pm by RINO Tom »

It was a lock, this was back when racist WWC voters voted for, ya know, Black Democrats from Chicago!

(It’s embarrassing Romney lost Ohio, and the gaffe had a decent impact.)
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #4 on: September 02, 2019, 10:39:18 pm »

In 2012 , Obama led OH even when Romney led national polls . What baffles me about this is , that could have easily been prevented if Romney selected Portman as his running mate . Picking Portman probably wins Romney OH and FL(the Ryan pick probably cost Romney FL).

That gives Romney 253 which means Romney can play offense far more than he was able to do in OTL and force Obama to seriously put in resources to defend PA , which then would have meant he wouldn’t have as much resources to defend VA , IA , NV and if VA and either IA or NV flip , Mitt wins
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#Split California In 4
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« Reply #5 on: September 02, 2019, 11:23:35 pm »

I came into Election Night 2012 expecting Obama to lose Ohio.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #6 on: September 10, 2019, 12:11:22 am »

Sure. Even after the economic crash in 2008 McCain was leading some Ohio polls.

Romney also won some polls in Ohio during the final weeks of the 2012 campaign.

It would've been a stretch, But it was not hard to imagine Obama losing Ohio both times.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #7 on: September 10, 2019, 12:13:04 am »

In 2012 , Obama led OH even when Romney led national polls . What baffles me about this is , that could have easily been prevented if Romney selected Portman as his running mate . Picking Portman probably wins Romney OH and FL(the Ryan pick probably cost Romney FL).

That gives Romney 253 which means Romney can play offense far more than he was able to do in OTL and force Obama to seriously put in resources to defend PA , which then would have meant he wouldn’t have as much resources to defend VA , IA , NV and if VA and either IA or NV flip , Mitt wins

I think a Portman pick would've allowed MI and PA to come into play as well.
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #8 on: September 11, 2019, 04:51:55 pm »

Sure. Even after the economic crash in 2008 McCain was leading some Ohio polls.

Romney also won some polls in Ohio during the final weeks of the 2012 campaign.

It would've been a stretch, But it was not hard to imagine Obama losing Ohio both times.

Even with the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, Obama 08 won OH by "only" 4.5%, worse than his 7.2% national PV margin. The last time a Democrat outperformed in Ohio relative to the national PV margin, was McGovern 1972 (he lost OH by 21.5% vs national loss of 23.2%).

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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #9 on: September 11, 2019, 04:53:14 pm »

In 2012 , Obama led OH even when Romney led national polls . What baffles me about this is , that could have easily been prevented if Romney selected Portman as his running mate . Picking Portman probably wins Romney OH and FL(the Ryan pick probably cost Romney FL).

That gives Romney 253 which means Romney can play offense far more than he was able to do in OTL and force Obama to seriously put in resources to defend PA , which then would have meant he wouldn’t have as much resources to defend VA , IA , NV and if VA and either IA or NV flip , Mitt wins

I think a Portman pick would've allowed MI and PA to come into play as well.

NO way. First, VP picks rarely make a meaningful difference unless it's their home state. Second, Portman is a Chamber of Commerce big business Republican, just like Ryan. He would not have resonated in the Rust Belt.
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#Split California In 4
Solid4096
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« Reply #10 on: September 11, 2019, 06:16:28 pm »

Sure. Even after the economic crash in 2008 McCain was leading some Ohio polls.

Romney also won some polls in Ohio during the final weeks of the 2012 campaign.

It would've been a stretch, But it was not hard to imagine Obama losing Ohio both times.

Even with the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, Obama 08 won OH by "only" 4.5%, worse than his 7.2% national PV margin. The last time a Democrat outperformed in Ohio relative to the national PV margin, was McGovern 1972 (he lost OH by 21.5% vs national loss of 23.2%).



Kerry lost Ohio by 2.11% and the NPV by 2.46%.
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