Obama Ohio

[Arbitrage1980]

Sure. Even after the economic crash in 2008 McCain was leading some Ohio polls.

Romney also won some polls in Ohio during the final weeks of the 2012 campaign.

It would've been a stretch, But it was not hard to imagine Obama losing Ohio both times.

Even with the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, Obama 08 won OH by "only" 4.5%, worse than his 7.2% national PV margin. The last time a Democrat outperformed in Ohio relative to the national PV margin, was McGovern 1972 (he lost OH by 21.5% vs national loss of 23.2%).

[Arbitrage1980]

In 2012 , Obama led OH even when Romney led national polls . What baffles me about this is , that could have easily been prevented if Romney selected Portman as his running mate . Picking Portman probably wins Romney OH and FL(the Ryan pick probably cost Romney FL).

That gives Romney 253 which means Romney can play offense far more than he was able to do in OTL and force Obama to seriously put in resources to defend PA , which then would have meant he wouldn’t have as much resources to defend VA , IA , NV and if VA and either IA or NV flip , Mitt wins

I think a Portman pick would've allowed MI and PA to come into play as well.

NO way. First, VP picks rarely make a meaningful difference unless it's their home state. Second, Portman is a Chamber of Commerce big business Republican, just like Ryan. He would not have resonated in the Rust Belt.