Popular uprisings and militaries

[Blue3]

Every successful popular uprising around the world in the last approximately 100 years has succeeded because of either the alliance or neutrality of that government’s military.



Is the above statement true or false?

[Good Habit]

False - there are quite a few cases where popular uprising had to go against most or all of the military (or just a few defections) - but this usually leads to a civil war...  OTOH, there can by definition not be a succesful upraising against the military without a part of the civil society forming its alternative army (aka - civil war)

[Blue3]

False - there are quite a few cases where popular uprising had to go against most or all of the military (or just a few defections) - but this usually leads to a civil war...  OTOH, there can by definition not be a succesful upraising against the military without a part of the civil society forming its alternative army (aka - civil war)

In which cases did a popular uprising go against their country's military and succeed?

[CumbrianLefty]

Costa Rica in the 1940s is one, no?

Indeed, the military ended up being abolished after it.

[Good Habit]

In which cases did a popular uprising go against their country's military and succeed?

Well, as statet earlier, a "popular uprising" can only succed if its well organized and competently lead - if the army stays neutral or just does the last push against the former regime, you (the former opposition) will always face the risk of a later military push back. (Sisi in Egypt comes to mind as a very recent example...)

So, to avoid this risk, you always have to prepare for civil war - either by purging the military of potential loyalists of the former regime or amitious generals after a succesful revolution, or by starting your own army for the uprising from the very beginning. The later is quite the norm in revolutions / wars for national independence.
But some other recent examples would be: the Houthis in Yemen, the civil wars that brought to power: Meles Zenaui in Ethiopia, Yoweri Musseveni in Uganda, Paul Kagame in Ruanda and Laurent Kabila in Kongo. You could add the Mujaheddin and later the first uprising of the Taliban (pre 9/11) in Afghanistan, and of course, the Chinese Civil war that brougt Mao Zedong to power would be a bigger example. (Or, in the Americas, Villa and Zapato in Mexico, although they did not ultimately succed... - oh, and I just forgot - the Sandinistas in Nicaragua... (and of course, I just forgot Fidel Castro in Cuba..)

[Beet]

In the Iranian revolution, the military remained loyal to the Shah. They committed many massacres and cracked down many times. However, you cannot slaughter an entire country. The revolution had such overwhelming support that the oil refineries were shut down, and the troops were no longer able to be paid. The government tried to send in the troops to operate the oil refineries but they did not have the ability or numbers. Thus the army was forced to give in.

[Strudelcutie4427]

What about the solidarity in Poland? The dictator was Gen. Wojciech Jaruzelski
Also Ukraine 2014 was against Berkhut and other state security agencies

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bangladesh is certainly one, although India helped them out.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

What about the solidarity in Poland? The dictator was Gen. Wojciech Jaruzelski

Not sure if a "popular uprising"/"revolution" label does apply here, as understood by other examples given in this thread.

When it all started, in August of 1980, the movement's aim was not to overthrow the regime, but for force some changes, primairly in the area of labor's right to organize independently from the regime's rubber-stamp official "union". Of course the worsening economic and social consitions, as well as the rising political awarness^*, would eventually expand the scope and led to our transition to democracy. But it was rather a dissident movement with mass appeal gradually forcing the change. I'm not trying to suggest it was some sort of a "usual" process. There were repressions, people were thrown into prison, some even lost their lives, but it wasn't a "revolt" in a traditional sense.

Fun fact: I've meet Jaruzelski once. Nothing special, just a brief encounter during the conference commemorating the 20th anniversary of the Round Table talks in 2009.


^* The rising political awarness within the Solidarity was achieved in a large part due to presence of veteran dissidents like Jacek Kuroń, Jan Józef Lipski or Adam Michnik, that were active opponents of the regime since at least the 60s.