Political future of Alaska and Kansas?

[AN63093]

Really you're asking two questions here- which state would flip first, and what the future trends are.

In regards to the first, probably AK, at least currently, due to a smaller size, much higher elasticity, and narrower margin.  Although KS is trending D at a faster rate, so this may be the last cycle where that's true.

Now to the second question- much harder to say.  Both states could drift a fair amount, and it wouldn't surprise me if they continue trending D for a few cycles, but for the reasons NC Yankee already went into above, there's probably a D ceiling, given the current population makeup.

So really what would have to happen is a demographic change.  Currently both states are stagnant in terms of growth- KS is near the bottom in the US.. AK is a little higher, but still below average.  Neither state is seeing a significant influx, either of older conservatives (a la FL, SC, etc), or liberal millennials (GA, TX etc).  So something would have to change for the needle to actually move.  Really what you're asking then, is what state is more likely to see a demographic shift.

AK is extremely remote and its industries are based almost wholly in oil/gas, fishing, military bases, and some tourism.  I don't really see it becoming either a millennial hotspot or a popular retirement location, and Anchorage's growth reflects that, as it's mainly stable (although not in decline either).

KS on the other hand- the KC metro is worth keeping an eye on.  This is on the other side of the border, obviously, but Kansas City proper is pretty much the only area of MO that is not in decline, and it anchors an MSA of over 2 mil.  It's centrally located, has a large airport that used to be a major hub (TWA), has a diversified economy.  Johnson County is growing rapidly and trending D rapidly (though that's not necessarily relevant to future growth).  There isn't enough population on the KS side to outweigh the rest of the state yet, but that could change if the KC metro goes through a period of substantial growth, and unlike any area in AK, it's positioned to do so.  In addition to the reasons above, it has a distinct culture, a pretty well built up urban core, the Plaza etc.  The MSA is already growing at 7% so it's not all that far fetched.  If one or two major corporations moved there, maybe from the Rust Belt or some nearby MSA that I expect to continue declining (e.g. Chicago) well then.. who knows what'd happen.  Now whether that would signal a future R or D trend, I don't know (depends on the party coalitions of the future), but the potential for growth in KC is there, and that would change the state one way or another.