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  For how long has all of urban America been Democratic?
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Author Topic: For how long has all of urban America been Democratic?  (Read 451 times)
darklordoftech
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« on: September 07, 2019, 08:49:13 pm »

Starting with which election?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #1 on: September 07, 2019, 09:05:12 pm »


Perhaps either 1988 or 1992? Looking back at prior elections, I know that (or can guess) these major cities last voted Republican in these years:

1. New York City, Boston, St. Louis (MO), St. Paul (MN)-1924 for Coolidge.
2. Detroit-1928 for Hoover.
3. Philadelphia-1932 for Hoover.
4. Chicago, Baltimore, Los Angeles (?), Minneapolis, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, San Francisco-1956 for Eisenhower.
5. Portland (OR)-1960 for Nixon.
6. Atlanta, New Orleans, Durham (NC)-1972 for Nixon.
7. Denver-1980 for Reagan.
8. Austin-1984 for Reagan (?).

These are ones that come to mind currently.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #2 on: September 07, 2019, 11:47:02 pm »

Urban American Democratic dominance is a product of the New Deal Era and was solidified by 1960 when the concept of the urban archipelago came into being.

NYC and Boston had been historically Democratic cities prior to this period, and Republican victories in 1920/1924 were the product of the Democratic collapse in the period leading up to those elections. Them flipping back wouldn't be very earth shattering. However, the rest of the cities on the other hand marked a huge shift and this was largely driven by suburban white flight, which removed the major Republican base, the transition of African-Americans to being strongly Democratic combined with the growth in their numbers during the great migration and lastly the shift in Republican policy focus away from one of industrialization, to one of opposing big gov't.

If you think about it, the Federalists, the Whigs and the Republicans thereafter, while involving larger segments of the rural north in each, had largely been urban and cosmopolitan oriented parties. Their base in each was middle/upper middle class and financial/mercantile elite. As voting expanded, they used a combination of machine politics, economic protectionism and internal improvements to maintain political power in a number of cities even with substantial demographic changes from immigration.

This fell apart once protectionism was removed from the table at the beginning of the New Deal Era. Republicans had already shifted away from internal improvements towards a more limited gov't orientation domestically, this weakened Republican power in the cities right as the Depression was beginning. Furthermore, the Smith candidacy had also shifted Republicans towards a more rural focus away from the cities at the expense of the urban political machines, just as Democrats were gaining ground in them.

By 1960, this process had fully developed, with Republicans dominating the suburbs where their base had largely moved to, but with Democrats increasingly dominating the cities.

Again, there were cities that were Democratic before this period, and there were cities that were Republican after this period (some of them in the Midwest and especially the Sunbelt, where this evolution of white flight and such was a few steps behind the rest of the county and the economic interests were different being more focused on the military and white collar jobs as opposed to big industry), but on the whole urban America has generally leaned Democratic for about 60 to 80 years.

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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #3 on: September 14, 2019, 04:56:52 pm »

Urban American Democratic dominance is a product of the New Deal Era and was solidified by 1960 when the concept of the urban archipelago came into being.

NYC and Boston had been historically Democratic cities prior to this period, and Republican victories in 1920/1924 were the product of the Democratic collapse in the period leading up to those elections. Them flipping back wouldn't be very earth shattering. However, the rest of the cities on the other hand marked a huge shift and this was largely driven by suburban white flight, which removed the major Republican base, the transition of African-Americans to being strongly Democratic combined with the growth in their numbers during the great migration and lastly the shift in Republican policy focus away from one of industrialization, to one of opposing big gov't.

If you think about it, the Federalists, the Whigs and the Republicans thereafter, while involving larger segments of the rural north in each, had largely been urban and cosmopolitan oriented parties. Their base in each was middle/upper middle class and financial/mercantile elite. As voting expanded, they used a combination of machine politics, economic protectionism and internal improvements to maintain political power in a number of cities even with substantial demographic changes from immigration.

This fell apart once protectionism was removed from the table at the beginning of the New Deal Era. Republicans had already shifted away from internal improvements towards a more limited gov't orientation domestically, this weakened Republican power in the cities right as the Depression was beginning. Furthermore, the Smith candidacy had also shifted Republicans towards a more rural focus away from the cities at the expense of the urban political machines, just as Democrats were gaining ground in them.

By 1960, this process had fully developed, with Republicans dominating the suburbs where their base had largely moved to, but with Democrats increasingly dominating the cities.

Again, there were cities that were Democratic before this period, and there were cities that were Republican after this period (some of them in the Midwest and especially the Sunbelt, where this evolution of white flight and such was a few steps behind the rest of the county and the economic interests were different being more focused on the military and white collar jobs as opposed to big industry), but on the whole urban America has generally leaned Democratic for about 60 to 80 years.



Great analysis. Don't have much to add here. It's worth noting that NYC voted Democratic since the party's founding by Andrew Jackson. Even Lincoln lost NYC to Douglas in 1860 and McClellan in 1864. The only Republicans to win NYC are McKinely 1896, Harding 1920, and Coolidge 1924. In 1896 Bryan was portrayed as an extremist who would destroy the ubran economic centers. Companies in NYC told their employees to not show up to work if Bryan won because there wouldn't be any jobs left. Adjusted for inflation, 1896 was the most expensive campaign in history. 1920 and 1924 were due to Dem collapse with the traditional urban ethnic groups (e.g. Irish) in the aftermath of Wilson's disastrous handling of WWI and domestic strife. His refusal to honor a promise to promote Irish independence and persecution of German-Americans infuriated those groups.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #4 on: September 14, 2019, 05:25:34 pm »

I predict 1992
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WeAreDoomed
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« Reply #5 on: September 15, 2019, 11:41:37 pm »

Urban American Democratic dominance is a product of the New Deal Era and was solidified by 1960 when the concept of the urban archipelago came into being.

NYC and Boston had been historically Democratic cities prior to this period, and Republican victories in 1920/1924 were the product of the Democratic collapse in the period leading up to those elections. Them flipping back wouldn't be very earth shattering. However, the rest of the cities on the other hand marked a huge shift and this was largely driven by suburban white flight, which removed the major Republican base, the transition of African-Americans to being strongly Democratic combined with the growth in their numbers during the great migration and lastly the shift in Republican policy focus away from one of industrialization, to one of opposing big gov't.

If you think about it, the Federalists, the Whigs and the Republicans thereafter, while involving larger segments of the rural north in each, had largely been urban and cosmopolitan oriented parties. Their base in each was middle/upper middle class and financial/mercantile elite. As voting expanded, they used a combination of machine politics, economic protectionism and internal improvements to maintain political power in a number of cities even with substantial demographic changes from immigration.

This fell apart once protectionism was removed from the table at the beginning of the New Deal Era. Republicans had already shifted away from internal improvements towards a more limited gov't orientation domestically, this weakened Republican power in the cities right as the Depression was beginning. Furthermore, the Smith candidacy had also shifted Republicans towards a more rural focus away from the cities at the expense of the urban political machines, just as Democrats were gaining ground in them.

By 1960, this process had fully developed, with Republicans dominating the suburbs where their base had largely moved to, but with Democrats increasingly dominating the cities.

Again, there were cities that were Democratic before this period, and there were cities that were Republican after this period (some of them in the Midwest and especially the Sunbelt, where this evolution of white flight and such was a few steps behind the rest of the county and the economic interests were different being more focused on the military and white collar jobs as opposed to big industry), but on the whole urban America has generally leaned Democratic for about 60 to 80 years.



Great analysis. Don't have much to add here. It's worth noting that NYC voted Democratic since the party's founding by Andrew Jackson. Even Lincoln lost NYC to Douglas in 1860 and McClellan in 1864. The only Republicans to win NYC are McKinely 1896, Harding 1920, and Coolidge 1924. In 1896 Bryan was portrayed as an extremist who would destroy the ubran economic centers. Companies in NYC told their employees to not show up to work if Bryan won because there wouldn't be any jobs left. Adjusted for inflation, 1896 was the most expensive campaign in history. 1920 and 1924 were due to Dem collapse with the traditional urban ethnic groups (e.g. Irish) in the aftermath of Wilson's disastrous handling of WWI and domestic strife. His refusal to honor a promise to promote Irish independence and persecution of German-Americans infuriated those groups.

That is some neat info from both of you!
Also, I remember that there were draft riots in NYC during the  Civil War, perhaps why Lincoln lost it in 1864?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #6 on: September 15, 2019, 11:48:33 pm »

Urban American Democratic dominance is a product of the New Deal Era and was solidified by 1960 when the concept of the urban archipelago came into being.

NYC and Boston had been historically Democratic cities prior to this period, and Republican victories in 1920/1924 were the product of the Democratic collapse in the period leading up to those elections. Them flipping back wouldn't be very earth shattering. However, the rest of the cities on the other hand marked a huge shift and this was largely driven by suburban white flight, which removed the major Republican base, the transition of African-Americans to being strongly Democratic combined with the growth in their numbers during the great migration and lastly the shift in Republican policy focus away from one of industrialization, to one of opposing big gov't.

If you think about it, the Federalists, the Whigs and the Republicans thereafter, while involving larger segments of the rural north in each, had largely been urban and cosmopolitan oriented parties. Their base in each was middle/upper middle class and financial/mercantile elite. As voting expanded, they used a combination of machine politics, economic protectionism and internal improvements to maintain political power in a number of cities even with substantial demographic changes from immigration.

This fell apart once protectionism was removed from the table at the beginning of the New Deal Era. Republicans had already shifted away from internal improvements towards a more limited gov't orientation domestically, this weakened Republican power in the cities right as the Depression was beginning. Furthermore, the Smith candidacy had also shifted Republicans towards a more rural focus away from the cities at the expense of the urban political machines, just as Democrats were gaining ground in them.

By 1960, this process had fully developed, with Republicans dominating the suburbs where their base had largely moved to, but with Democrats increasingly dominating the cities.

Again, there were cities that were Democratic before this period, and there were cities that were Republican after this period (some of them in the Midwest and especially the Sunbelt, where this evolution of white flight and such was a few steps behind the rest of the county and the economic interests were different being more focused on the military and white collar jobs as opposed to big industry), but on the whole urban America has generally leaned Democratic for about 60 to 80 years.



Great analysis. Don't have much to add here. It's worth noting that NYC voted Democratic since the party's founding by Andrew Jackson. Even Lincoln lost NYC to Douglas in 1860 and McClellan in 1864. The only Republicans to win NYC are McKinely 1896, Harding 1920, and Coolidge 1924. In 1896 Bryan was portrayed as an extremist who would destroy the ubran economic centers. Companies in NYC told their employees to not show up to work if Bryan won because there wouldn't be any jobs left. Adjusted for inflation, 1896 was the most expensive campaign in history. 1920 and 1924 were due to Dem collapse with the traditional urban ethnic groups (e.g. Irish) in the aftermath of Wilson's disastrous handling of WWI and domestic strife. His refusal to honor a promise to promote Irish independence and persecution of German-Americans infuriated those groups.

That is some neat info from both of you!
Also, I remember that there were draft riots in NYC during the  Civil War, perhaps why Lincoln lost it in 1864?

Lincoln lost New York City because of the same group that cost Cox and Davis the city: the Irish. Many Irish immigrants protested the Civil War vigorously, and as you noted, rioted in 1863. Irish voters and other white ethnics (also opposed to the War), overwhelmingly backed McClellan, almost handing him New York State. Lincoln won the state by less than a percentage point, doing just well enough in Upstate to counteract the ethnic backlash in New York City.
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